Exposing the Media and Coincidence Theorists (CTs) in the JFK Cover-up: Facts, Logic, Mathematics

Exposing the Media and Coincidence Theorists (CTs) in the JFK Cover-up: Facts, Logic, Mathematics

Richard Charnin
June 24, 2013
Updated: Sept. 24, 2013

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

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JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

There are actually two JFK conspiracies. The first was the assassination itself. The second is ongoing: the corporate media and academia persist in their relentless cover-up of the facts. But Warren Commission apologists and Lone Nutter claims are easily debunked – and make the corporate shills who appear on cable every night look ridiculous.

Suppose that on Nov. 22, 1963, 1400 individuals were selected from the entire U.S. population. Further suppose that within one year, at least 18 would die unnaturally (homicide, accident, suicide) under mysterious circumstances. Based on unnatural mortality rates, only one such death would be expected.

There are two possibilities. The 18 unnatural deaths were…
1) unrelated. It was just a 1 in 1000 trillion coincidence.
2) related. There was a common factor -a connection- between them.
We can confidently rule out 1). But if the 15 unnatural deaths were related, what was the connection?

Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, is the truth.
– Arthur Conan Doyle

The probabilities are mathematical proof connecting the witnesses to the assassination. The witnesses had to be related or there would not have been a conspiracy to keep them silent and deter others from coming forward. If Oswald was indeed a lone nut, there would not have been even one related unnatural witness death.

Here is the table of probabilities in the JFKCalc spreadsheet database.

Myth 1- In 1977, a statistician testified at the HSCA that it was impossible to determine a defined universe of JFK-related witnesses. Therefore the London Sunday Times actuary’s 100,000 TRILLION to 1 odds of 18 material witness deaths in the three years following the assassination was invalid.

This was obviously a false statement; the Warren Commission was a defined universe of 552 total witnesses. At least 10 died unnaturally in the three years following the assassination; the probability is 1 in 40 BILLION. At least 18 died unnaturally in the 15 years following the assassination; the probability is 1 in 60 BILLION.

A CIA memo claimed there were just 418 live Warren Commission witnesses. The probability of 10 unnatural deaths in three years is 1 in 5 BILLION; the probability of 18 unnatural deaths in 15 years is 1 in 5 TRILLION.

In addition, there was a defined universe of 800 witnesses in four JFK investigations (Warren, Garrison, Church, HSCA). At least 61 died unnaturally. The probability is 1 in 1.7 TRILLION. At least 25 deaths were homicides; the probability is 1 in 30 TRILLION TRILLION.

Myth 2- There was no clear connection of the witnesses to the assassination.
This one is laughable on its face; the relationships are obvious: Oswald, Ruby, Ferrie, Kilgallen, Craig, de Morenschildt, Sullivan, etc. But it’s a moot point; whether or not there was a relationship is immaterial.

Proof of a connection is a logical result of the ZERO probability for the given number of unnatural deaths in the known population groups. There is no self-selection; the witness groups are not random. There is obviously a connection by definition – after all, they were called to testify. A conspiracy was the reason why they died unnaturally.

The math is the proof. The Poisson probability function does not include a “relationship” parameter, only the actual and expected number of unnatural deaths in a given time interval.

Myth 3- There were many more than 1400 material witnesses.
In his 1600 page defense of the Warren Commission, famous lawyer Vincent Bugliosi cites 2,479 names in the Warren Commission Index. But the Index includes individuals who had no relationship to the assassination (like George Washington and Abraham Lincoln, etc.). He also cites invalid actuarial calculations that did not take unnatural deaths into account.
Even assuming the 2479 names in the Index, the probability of
1- 10 unnatural deaths in 3 years is 1 in 2.4 MILLION.
2- 18 homicides (assuming 8 “accidents” were actually homicides) in 14 years is 1 in 50 BILLION.

Apologists claim that 25,000 were interviewed by the FBI. Where is the list? It’s a canard. Not material.
The probability of 100 homicides among the 25,000 from 1964-78 is 1 in 5 BILLION TRILLION.

Myth 4- The probability analysis does not take witness age into account.
This canard is one for the ages. The age of a witness who dies unnaturally is irrelevant. Duh.

Myth 5- 100 dead witnesses are not proof of a conspiracy.
But if just one homicide is executed to prevent a witness from providing incriminating information, it would prove a conspiracy. And that’s why Ruby shot Oswald.

Warren Commission Apologists and Trolls: Feeble Attempts to Debunk JFK Probability Analysis

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