Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Updated: Sept.9, 2012
This is an updated analysis of state and national exit poll discrepancies in the 1988-2008 presidential elections. The unadjusted data has made available on the Roper Center for Public Opinion (UConn) website. Now we know what the respondents actually said as to how they voted. It is fundamental information that was not previously available. But it is not the raw precinct level data that analysts would love to see and which the corporate media (the National Election Pool) will not release.
Nevertheless, the unadjusted state and national exit poll data is the mother-lode for SERIOUS exit poll analysis. The pattern is clear: the Democrats always do better in the polls than in the recorded count. There is no evidence that this one-sided result is due to anything other than vote miscounts.
Each presidential election consists of 50 state exit poll files (and Washington DC) in PDF format. In order to utilize the data for a meaningful analysis, it had to be re-organized and consolidated in a single workbook. The workbook contains individual worksheets for each election, as well as other sheets for relevant graphs and tables.
This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes
It has long been established that Final National Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote, often with impossible returning voter weights. The unadjusted data shows just how the exit pollsters had to adjust the actual responses to force the match. Furthermore, and most important, it confirms True Vote Model calculations in each election. The pattern of massive discrepancies totally confirm that the adjusted Final National Election Poll is fiction and debunks the corresponding myth that elections are fair and that the votes are counted accurately.
The original post was based on 1988-2004 data from the Edison/Mitofsky 2004 Election Evaluation Report.
1988-2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls
According to the unadjusted state and national exit polls and the True Vote Model, the Democrats won the 1988-2008 popular vote by a far bigger margin than the recorded vote indicates.
1988-2008 Average National Presidential Vote Shares
1) Recorded.........47.9-45.9% (2.0%) - Vote count
2) WPE /IMS.........50.8-43.1% (7.7%) - Edison-Mitofsky
3) State Exit.......51.8-41.6% (10.2%) - Roper
4) National Exit....51.7-41.7% (10.0%) - Roper
5) True Vote 1......50.2-43.8% (6.4%) - previous recorded vote
6) True Vote 2......51.6-42.5% (9.1%) - previous votes cast
7) True Vote 3......52.5-41.5% (11.0%) - previous unadjusted exit poll
8) True Vote 4......53.0-41.0% (12.0%) - previous True Vote
1988-2008: 274 STATE EXIT POLLS
PROOF OF SYSTEMIC ELECTION FRAUD BEYOND ANY DOUBT
This table illustrates the one-sided red-shift from the Democrat in the state exit polls to the Republican in the recorded vote. The margin of error includes a 30% cluster effect. The MoE was exceeded in an astounding 126 of 274 state presidential exit polls from 1988-2008. The probability is ZERO. At the 95% confidence level, we would expect 14 polls to exceed the MoE. Of the 126 elections, 123 red-shifted to the GOP and just 3 to the Democrat. The probability is 5.4E-106 – ZERO.
State Exit Poll Margin of Error
....................... 3.26% 3.34% 3.42% 3.07% 3.64% 3.11% 2.97%
red-shift to GOP........226 20 44 43 34 40 45
exceeding MoE...........126 11 26 16 13 23 37
exceeding MoE (GOP).....123 11 26 16 12 22 36
126 exceeding MoE.......8.0E-75 6.6E-09 2.1E-15 1.5E-09 7.5E-07 2.1E-15 2.1E-15
123 exceeding MoE (GOP).5.E-106 5.0E-11 2.4E-25 4.8E-13 8.7E-09 3.5E-20 2.4E-39
226 red-shift to GOP....3.7E-31 7.7E-04 1.6E-08 1.0E-07 7.7E-03 1.2E-05 2.1E-09
States in which the Democrats won the exit poll and lost the vote
1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
Dukakis had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground state polls.
He lost by 7 million votes,
1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
Clnton had a 18 million vote margin in the state exit polls.
He won the the recorded vote by just 6 million.
1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the state exit polls.
He won by just 8 million recorded votes.
2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA
Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election.
He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM.
2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
Kerry needed FL or OH to win. He won the national and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%.
2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
Obama had 58% in the state exit polls (exact match to the TVM), a 23 million margin (9.5 recorded) and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.
In 1988, Dukakis won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (11,586 respondents) by 49.8-49.2%. He won the exit polls in the battleground states by 51.6-47.3%. There were 11 million uncounted votes, an indicator that Dukakis may have won since 70-80% of uncounted votes are Democratic. But he lost by 7 million recorded votes (53.4-45.6%).
In 1992, Clinton won the unadjusted state exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (15,000 respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. He had 51% in the True Vote Model (TVM). But his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. The NEP implied that there was a 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.
In 1996, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). He had 53.6% in the TVM. His recorded margin was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.
In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). He had 51.5% in the TVM. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000. There were 6 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.
In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6% (a 10 million margin) in the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.
In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.1-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the TVM. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Officially, he had 52.9% and won by 9.5 million votes. The landslide was denied.
The full set of 2008 exit polls and 24 of the 1988 state polls are from the Roper website. The analysis is displayed in the following 12 data tables:
1 State Exit Poll Discrepancies
2 True Vote Model vs. Final National Exit Poll
3 Battleground Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote
4 National Exit Poll
5 True Vote Model
6 Sensitivity Analysis
7 State Recorded, Exit Poll, True Vote Shares, 8 State Exit Poll Timeline
9 National Exit Poll
10 True Vote Model
11 Unadjusted State exit polls vs. Recorded Vote and True Vote
12 Unadjusted National Exit Poll vs. Final
Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the difference between the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote margins. “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong and the election was fraud-free. But millions of votes are uncounted in every election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004). Therefore, it is more accurate to refer to Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). A positive WPD indicates that the vote shift favored the GOP; a negative WPD favored the Democrat. In 2004, Kerry won the state exit polls by 52-47% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%, a WPD of 7.4%.
In the 274 state elections which were exit polled, 226 shifted from the exit poll to the Republican and 48 shifted to the Democrat. The one-sided red-shift to the Republican implies that the exit polls were incorrect or the votes were miscounted. It could not have been due to chance. Exit polls are known to be quite accurate – outside the USA.
Were the discrepancies due to Republican voter reluctance to be polled in each of the six elections? Not likely. Were they due to Democratic voters misstating how they voted to the exit pollsters in each of the six elections? Not likely. Or were they due to the millions of mostly Democratic votes that were uncounted? That is more than likely. It’s a fact. Were they due to votes that were miscounted in favor of the Republican? Quite likely.
– In 15 Democratic states, the average WPD was 6.3. The MoE was exceeded in 41 state elections. All shifted in favor of the Republicans.
– In 15 Battleground states, the average WPD was 5.0. The MoE was exceeded in 37. All shifted in favor of the Republicans
– In 21 Republican states, the average WPD was 3.7. The MoE was exceeded in 35. All but two shifted in favor of the Republicans.
Given a 95% level of confidence, approximately 14 of 274 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error. The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in a state is 5%. But the MoE was exceeded in 126 elections, all but threein favor of the Republicans. The probability is ZERO that this was due to chance.
The 1988 CBS exit poll indicate that Dukakis did substantially better than the Edison/Mitofsky report. They show Dukakis winning the 24 battleground state aggregate by a solid 51.6-47.3%. But George H.W. Bush won the recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%. There were 68.7 million recorded votes in the battleground states (75% of the 91.6 million recorded). Seven of the 24 flipped to Bush from the exit polls – a total of 132 electoral votes: CA, MD, PA, MI, IL, VT and NM. The margin of error was exceeded in 11 of the 24 states. Dukakis may very well have won the election. According to the Census, there were at least 10.6 million net uncounted votes (i.e. net of stuffed ballots).
Dukakis won the Roper California exit poll in a landslide (57.7-40.8%), yet Bush won the recorded vote (51.1-47.7%) – an amazing 20.4% discrepancy. He won the IL exit poll by 8% but lost by 2%. In MI, Dukakis had a 3.5% exit poll margin and lost by 8%. In MD, his 12% exit poll win morphed into a 3% defeat. In PA, he won the exit poll by less than 1% and lost by 3%. In Bush’s home state of Texas, he barely edged Dukakis by 1% in the exit poll. He won the state by 13%.
1988 Battleground State Exit Polls
– In 15 strong Democratic states, the average WPD was 8.9.
The MoE was exceeded in 11 states (73%) – all shifted to Bush.
– In 15 Battleground states, the average WPD was 6.9.
The MoE was exceeded in 10 states (67%) – all shifted to Bush.
– In 21 Republican states, the average WPD was 3.8.
The MoE was exceeded in 7 states (33%) – all shifted to Bush.
The margin of error was exceeded in a total of 23 states – all but one in favor of Bush. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states. Imagine what the probability is for 28 states. Assuming a 2% MoE, the probability is even lower since the MoE was exceeded in 36 states: 34 in favor of Bush, 2 in favor of Kerry.
The WPDs indicate the GOP election theft strategy:
1) Cut Dem margins in BLUE states: NY, CA, CT, NJ, MD, MA, MI
2) Steal BLUE battleground states: FL, OH, NM, CO, NV, MO, IA
3) Pad the Bush vote in big RED states: TX, MS, AL, TN, SC
4) Ignore small RED states: ND, SD, OK, MT, KY
The exit poll discrepancies (10.6 WPD) were substantially greater than in other elections. The True Vote Model (TVM) exactly matched Obama’s 58% aggregate share of the unadjusted state exit polls – a 23 million vote margin. McCain’s recorded share exceeded his exit poll in 45 states. The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 37 states, all but one in favor ofr McCain. Obama won by nearly 23 million True votes; he won officially by 9.5 million.
2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls confirm the True Vote Model:
This graph tells you all you need to know about the 2008 election. Obama had a 58% True Vote share – not the official recorded 53%. This is confirmed by at least 4 independent statistical measures: 1) Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 2) Unadjusted state exit polls, 3) True Vote Model and 4)10 million late (paper ballot) votes.
September 24, 2011 at 1:35 pm
What you report is chilling.
May 28, 2012 at 8:14 pm
In strong blue states in which Democrats have all the power, you still claim to see this effect. Clearly you do not have your thinking cap on right. You can’t just look at the raw data. You have to adjust it. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to participate in an exit poll. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to lie to the pollster, tell the pollster what he/she thinks the pollster wants to hear. Late votes are more likely to be cast by Democrats than to be cast by Republicans. It makes no sense to cheat in Utah. The Republicans are going to win anyway. Who is in power to do the cheating in Massachusetts? There’s not a Republican in sight. It doesn’t help the country for you to stir up passions with this paranoid nonsense.
May 29, 2012 at 8:17 am
You say: In strong blue states in which Democrats have all the power, you still claim to see this effect. Clearly you do not have your thinking cap on right.
-My thinking cap has been on since the 2000 election theft. And that’s because I did a thorough analysis of ALL the data. Have you?
You can’t just look at the raw data. You have to adjust it.
-Really? Who says so? The exit pollsters (i.e. National Election Pool- the mainstream media). Of course, they have to adjust the data to match bogus vote counts.
Democrats are more likely than Republicans to participate in an exit poll.
-Where is your evidence on that? In fact, according to the 2004 exit pollsters own data. there was a higher exit poll response rate in Bush strongolds than Kerry strongholds.
And why did the exit pollsters adjust the final 2004 national exit poll to show that 43% of the electorate (52.6 million) were returning Bush voters and 37% were returning Kerry voters. Bush only had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died and another 1 million did not return to vote. So at most, there could have been just 47 million returning bush voters. There were 5.6 million Bush phantoms. The pollsters had to to “adjust” the TRUE unadjusted exit poll numbers to match the BOGUS recorded vote.
How do YOU explain that adjustment
Republicans are more likely than Democrats to lie to the pollster, tell the pollster what he/she thinks the pollster wants to hear.
-Heheheh. Your bias is showing. Absolutely ridiculous. Where is your evidence. Here’s the proof that Democrats don’t lie or forget anymore than Republicans. http://richardcharnin.com/FinalNEPFalseRecall.htm
Late votes are more likely to be cast by Democrats than to be cast by Republicans.
– Is that so? Another myth. You are very well programmed with R/W talking points.
Kerry led the exit polls by a constant 51-48% margin from 4Pm EST to the close:
2004 National Exit Poll Timeline
This refutes the myth that early exit polls were biased to Kerry. He led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%). The exit pollsters had to switch approximately 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to force the Final NEP to match the recorded vote. Given his 51.7% share of 125.7 million (Census) votes cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes.The True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.
11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%
Click to access US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf
11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%
Click to access US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
Kerry 51.7%; Bush 47.9%
Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)
Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 76000 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.6%
Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).
Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%
Click to access US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
The Final was forced to match recorded vote by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush.
The average within precinct discrepancy (WPD) was a nearly identical 6.5%.
The True Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.
It makes no sense to cheat in Utah. The Republicans are going to win anyway. Who is in power to do the cheating in Massachusetts? There’s not a Republican in sight. It doesn’t help the country for you to stir up passions with this paranoid nonsense.
– You are right. It makes no sense to cheat in Utah. That’s why the GOP focused on the battleground states for electoral votes and on strong Democratic states (like NY and MA) to pad the popular vote.
Here are the actual unadjusted exit polls from compared to the ercorded votes from 1988-2008. Where are your numbers?
Who is in power to do the cheating in Massachusetts? There’s not a Republican in sight. It doesn’t help the country for you to stir up passions with this paranoid nonsense.
– Your question should be: “Who manufactures and programs the voting machines, Democratic progressives or GOP right wing companies”.
As I stated above but will repeat for you, the reason why Bush needed to steal votes in strong Democratic states in 2004 was to PAD his popular vote. If you recall, in 2000 he LOST the popular vote by a RECORDED 540,000. But Gore won the unadjusted exit polls by 51-45%, a 6 million vote margin, give or take a few million.
Bush needed to make sure that when he stole it again in 2004, he would also be the popular vote winner. And so he “won” by 3 million bogus votes. Kerry won the TRUE VOTE by approximately 10 million – that is, unless you believe the FINAL ADJUSTED 2004 National Exit Poll. To believe it, you also must believe that there were 6 million returning phantom Bush 2000 voters.
And you must also believe these 36 Bush myths: