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2020 Election Model Update: 1/1/2021

01 Jan

Richard Charnin – Jan.1, 2021

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2020 Election Model. View 10 pre-election polls and recorded state votes, party-ID, model popular votes, shares and electoral votes.

1) National Model input data/calculations in row 5, 2) 25 Trump vote share scenarios in row 35, 3) Model output in row 95.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=297739797

Consider two model scenarios:

1) Trump: 96% of Repubs, 12% of Dems and 57% of Independents. He has 393 EV, 54.6%, 14.7m vote margin.

2) Trump: 96% of Repubs, 10% of Dems and 55% of Independents. He has 389 EV, 53.4%, 11.4m vote margin.

Note: Equal voter turnout is assumed. This is conservative. Republicans turn out at higher rates than Democrats. Therefore, we can assume Trump did better than the results below indicate.

Scenario 1Gallup
TurnoutParty-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem60.242.4%87.0%12.0%1.0%
Rep60.442.5%4.0%96.0%0.0%
Ind21.415.1%38.0%57.0%5.0%
National Model100.0%44.3%54.5%1.2%
Votes142.063.077.41.6
Margin/EV14.4145393
State Model100.0%44.2%54.6%1.2%
Votes142.062.877.51.7
Margin/EV14.7145393
Recorded12/1351.3%46.9%1.8%
Votes158.3881.374.22.9
Margin/EV-7.1306232
Scenario 2Party-IDBidenTrumpOther
Dem60.242.4%89.0%10.0%1.0%
Rep60.442.5%4.0%96.0%0.0%
Ind21.415.1%40.0%55.0%5.0%
National Model100.0%45.5%53.3%1.2%
Votes142.0m64.675.71.7
Margin/EV11.2m149389
State Model100.0%45.4%53.4%1.2%
Votes142.064.475.91.7
Margin/EV11.4m149389
Recorded51.3%46.9%1.8%
Votes158.4m81.374.22.9
Margin/EV-7.1m306232

SensitivityAnalysis

%Dem10.0%Trump %Rep
Trump88.0%90.0%92.0%94.0%96.0%
% IndTrump
55%49.9%50.8%51.6%52.5%53.3%
53%49.6%50.5%51.3%52.2%53.0%
51%49.3%50.2%51.0%51.9%52.7%
49%49.0%49.9%50.7%51.6%52.4%
47%48.7%49.6%50.4%51.3%52.1%
Biden
55%48.9%48.0%47.2%46.3%45.5%
53%49.2%48.3%47.5%46.6%45.8%
51%49.5%48.6%47.8%46.9%46.1%
49%49.8%48.9%48.1%47.2%46.4%
47%50.1%49.2%48.4%47.5%46.7%
Margin
55%1.1%2.8%4.5%6.2%7.9%
53%0.5%2.2%3.9%5.6%7.3%
51%-0.1%1.6%3.3%5.0%6.7%
49%-0.7%1.0%2.7%4.4%6.1%
47%-1.4%0.4%2.1%3.8%5.5%
Margin
55%1.53.96.38.811.2
53%0.73.15.57.910.3
51%-0.22.24.67.09.5
49%-1.11.43.86.28.6
47%-1.90.52.95.37.7
 
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