Richard Charnin – Jan.1, 2021
2020 Election Model. View 10 pre-election polls and recorded state votes, party-ID, model popular votes, shares and electoral votes.
1) National Model input data/calculations in row 5, 2) 25 Trump vote share scenarios in row 35, 3) Model output in row 95.
Consider two model scenarios:
1) Trump: 96% of Repubs, 12% of Dems and 57% of Independents. He has 393 EV, 54.6%, 14.7m vote margin.
2) Trump: 96% of Repubs, 10% of Dems and 55% of Independents. He has 389 EV, 53.4%, 11.4m vote margin.
Note: Equal voter turnout is assumed. This is conservative. Republicans turn out at higher rates than Democrats. Therefore, we can assume Trump did better than the results below indicate.
| Scenario 1 | Gallup | ||||
| Turnout | Party-ID | Biden | Trump | Other | |
| Dem | 60.2 | 42.4% | 87.0% | 12.0% | 1.0% |
| Rep | 60.4 | 42.5% | 4.0% | 96.0% | 0.0% |
| Ind | 21.4 | 15.1% | 38.0% | 57.0% | 5.0% |
| National Model | 100.0% | 44.3% | 54.5% | 1.2% | |
| Votes | 142.0 | 63.0 | 77.4 | 1.6 | |
| Margin/EV | 14.4 | 145 | 393 | ||
| State Model | 100.0% | 44.2% | 54.6% | 1.2% | |
| Votes | 142.0 | 62.8 | 77.5 | 1.7 | |
| Margin/EV | 14.7 | 145 | 393 | ||
| Recorded | 12/13 | 51.3% | 46.9% | 1.8% | |
| Votes | 158.38 | 81.3 | 74.2 | 2.9 | |
| Margin/EV | -7.1 | 306 | 232 |
| Scenario 2 | Party-ID | Biden | Trump | Other | |
| Dem | 60.2 | 42.4% | 89.0% | 10.0% | 1.0% |
| Rep | 60.4 | 42.5% | 4.0% | 96.0% | 0.0% |
| Ind | 21.4 | 15.1% | 40.0% | 55.0% | 5.0% |
| National Model | 100.0% | 45.5% | 53.3% | 1.2% | |
| Votes | 142.0m | 64.6 | 75.7 | 1.7 | |
| Margin/EV | 11.2m | 149 | 389 | ||
| State Model | 100.0% | 45.4% | 53.4% | 1.2% | |
| Votes | 142.0 | 64.4 | 75.9 | 1.7 | |
| Margin/EV | 11.4m | 149 | 389 | ||
| Recorded | 51.3% | 46.9% | 1.8% | ||
| Votes | 158.4m | 81.3 | 74.2 | 2.9 | |
| Margin/EV | -7.1m | 306 | 232 |
SensitivityAnalysis
| %Dem | 10.0% | Trump %Rep | |||
| Trump | 88.0% | 90.0% | 92.0% | 94.0% | 96.0% |
| % Ind | Trump | ||||
| 55% | 49.9% | 50.8% | 51.6% | 52.5% | 53.3% |
| 53% | 49.6% | 50.5% | 51.3% | 52.2% | 53.0% |
| 51% | 49.3% | 50.2% | 51.0% | 51.9% | 52.7% |
| 49% | 49.0% | 49.9% | 50.7% | 51.6% | 52.4% |
| 47% | 48.7% | 49.6% | 50.4% | 51.3% | 52.1% |
| Biden | |||||
| 55% | 48.9% | 48.0% | 47.2% | 46.3% | 45.5% |
| 53% | 49.2% | 48.3% | 47.5% | 46.6% | 45.8% |
| 51% | 49.5% | 48.6% | 47.8% | 46.9% | 46.1% |
| 49% | 49.8% | 48.9% | 48.1% | 47.2% | 46.4% |
| 47% | 50.1% | 49.2% | 48.4% | 47.5% | 46.7% |
| Margin | |||||
| 55% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% |
| 53% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% |
| 51% | -0.1% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% |
| 49% | -0.7% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% |
| 47% | -1.4% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% |
| Margin | |||||
| 55% | 1.5 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 11.2 |
| 53% | 0.7 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 10.3 |
| 51% | -0.2 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 9.5 |
| 49% | -1.1 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 8.6 |
| 47% | -1.9 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 7.7 |
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