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Differences between Census and reported state votes (net stuffed and lost ballots) vs. the Census state margin of error

17 Oct

Richard Charnin Oct.17, 2021

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If a state’s Census votes are LESS than recorded, assume the difference is due to NET STUFFED ballots. If the Census votes are GREATER than recorded, assume the difference is due to NET LOST/DISCARDED ballots. In the US, there were 3.7 million net stuffed ballots (5.9 million net stuffed in 33 states and 2.2 million net lost in18 states).

Note that if the Census vote is close to the Reported vote in a state (i.e. the net absolute difference is less than 2%), then we can assume that the number of stuffed ballots is close to the number of lost/discarded ballots.

These states had the most net stuffed ballots (Diff). Note that the net differences exceeded the margin of error, therefore there is a virtual ZERO probability that the discrepancies were due to chance.

Stuffed ballots (net)CensusRecordedDiffDiff %MoE %
US (000)154,628158,3843,7562.4%0.4
Florida9,72011,0671,34712.2%1.6
North Carolina4,7805,52574513.5%2.3
California16,89317,5016083.5%1.2
Michigan4,9945,5395459.8%2.2
Colorado2,8373,25742012.9%3
Massachusetts3,2493,63138210.5%2.7
Washington3,8544,0882345.7%2.5
Virginia4,2754,4611864.2%2.4
Pennsylvania6,7566,9151592.3%1.9
Connecticut1,6811,8241437.9%3.4
Georgia4,8885,0001122.2%2.3

These states had the most net lost/discarded ballots. Each net abs (Diff) exceeded the Census margin of error, a virtual ZERO probability that the discrepancies were due to chance.

Lost ballots (net)CensusRecordedDiffDiff % MoE %
US (000)154,628158,3843,7562.4%0.4
Texas11,87411,315-559-4.9%1.5
Tennessee3,3463,054-292-9.6%2.7
Arizona3,6493,387-262-7.7%2.6
Mississippi1,5311,314-217-16.5%3.2
Ohio6,1285,922-206-3.5%2
Maryland3,1663,037-129-4.2%2.8

View all states here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1244287493


https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/techdocs/cpsnov20.pdf

 
2 Comments

Posted by on October 17, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

2 responses to “Differences between Census and reported state votes (net stuffed and lost ballots) vs. the Census state margin of error

  1. equanimus

    October 18, 2021 at 12:22 pm

    Sorry, what is a Census vote?

     
  2. Richard Charnin

    October 20, 2021 at 5:04 am

    The number who voted in a state according to the Census.

     

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