Differences between Census and reported state votes (net stuffed and lost ballots) vs. the Census state margin of error

Richard Charnin Oct.17, 2021

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If a state’s Census votes are LESS than recorded, assume the difference is due to NET STUFFED ballots. If the Census votes are GREATER than recorded, assume the difference is due to NET LOST/DISCARDED ballots. In the US, there were 3.7 million net stuffed ballots (5.9 million net stuffed in 33 states and 2.2 million net lost in18 states).

Note that if the Census vote is close to the Reported vote in a state (i.e. the net absolute difference is less than 2%), then we can assume that the number of stuffed ballots is close to the number of lost/discarded ballots.

These states had the most net stuffed ballots (Diff). Note that the net differences exceeded the margin of error, therefore there is a virtual ZERO probability that the discrepancies were due to chance.

Stuffed ballots (net)	Census	Recorded	Diff	Diff %	MoE %
US (000)	154,628	158,384	3,756	2.4%	0.4
Florida	9,720	11,067	1,347	12.2%	1.6
North Carolina	4,780	5,525	745	13.5%	2.3
California	16,893	17,501	608	3.5%	1.2
Michigan	4,994	5,539	545	9.8%	2.2
Colorado	2,837	3,257	420	12.9%	3
Massachusetts	3,249	3,631	382	10.5%	2.7
Washington	3,854	4,088	234	5.7%	2.5
Virginia	4,275	4,461	186	4.2%	2.4
Pennsylvania	6,756	6,915	159	2.3%	1.9
Connecticut	1,681	1,824	143	7.9%	3.4
Georgia	4,888	5,000	112	2.2%	2.3

These states had the most net lost/discarded ballots. Each net abs (Diff) exceeded the Census margin of error, a virtual ZERO probability that the discrepancies were due to chance.

Lost ballots (net)	Census	Recorded	Diff	Diff %	MoE %
US (000)	154,628	158,384	3,756	2.4%	0.4
Texas	11,874	11,315	-559	-4.9%	1.5
Tennessee	3,346	3,054	-292	-9.6%	2.7
Arizona	3,649	3,387	-262	-7.7%	2.6
Mississippi	1,531	1,314	-217	-16.5%	3.2
Ohio	6,128	5,922	-206	-3.5%	2
Maryland	3,166	3,037	-129	-4.2%	2.8

View all states here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1244287493

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/techdocs/cpsnov20.pdf