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The Late Recorded Votes: A confirmation of the True Vote?

09 Nov

The Late Recorded Votes: A confirmation of the True Vote?

Richard Charnin
Updated: Jan.7, 2013

The late vote timeline included in the 2012 True Vote Model shows that Obama’s lead increased dramatically after Election Day. He won the 11.7 million late votes recorded after Election Day by 58.0-38.3%, but led the first 117.4 million recorded by just 50.3-48.1%. Once again, as in every election since 2000, the Democratic late vote share exceeded the Election Day share by a substantial margin. What is the cause of this anomaly? Some possible reasons are given below.

Dave Leip’s US Election Atlas and Wikipedia provided daily state vote updates.

Obama vote share margins:
Election Day: 50.3-48.1% (2.2% of 117.45 million votes).
Late vote 58.0-38.3 (19.7% of 11.68 million votes).
Total vote: 51.03-47.19% (3.8% of 129.13 million votes.
Weighted late vote: 54.0%-41.8% (12.2%).
(Late state vote shares are weighted by total votes cast)

Obama 2-party shares and margins:
51.2-48.8% Election Day Recorded share (2.4%)
56.3-43.7% Late Vote share weighted by total recorded vote (12.6%)
52.0-48.0% Total vote (4.O%)
60.2-39.8% Unweighted Late Vote share (20.4%)
56.1-43.9% True Vote Model (12.2%)

2012 Late Vote Timeline
On……Obama led by…
Nov. 8 50.34-48.07% of 117.45 million recorded votes
Nov. 9 50.43-47.97% of 119.58 (2.13 late)
Nov.10 50.51-47.87% of 122.20 (4.75 late)
Nov.11 50.52-47.86% of 122.58 (5.13 late)
Nov.13 50.55-47.82% of 122.94 (5.49 late)
Nov.14 50.61-47.76% of 123.73 (6.27 late)
Nov.16 50.66-47.69% of 124.69 (7.24 late)
Nov.20 50.73-47.61% of 125.53 (8.07 late)
Nov.25 50.80-47.50% of 126.87 (9.41 late)
Nov.28 50.88-47.38% of 127.74 (10.29 late)
Nov.29 50.90-47.36% of 127.87 (10.42 late)
Dec.05 50.94-47.31% of 128.36 (10.90 late)
Dec.21 50.96-47.28% of 128.74 (11.28 late)
Final
Dec.31 51.03-47.19% of 129.13 (11.68 late)

Election Day and Late vote shares
(Late votes in thousands)
* indicates suspicious anomaly
…………….EDay Late Late Votes (000)
Total………..50.3% 58.0% 11,677

Alabama………39% 37% 312 *
Alaska……….41% 40% 80
Arizona………43% 47% 666 *
Arkansas……..37% 36% 25
California……59% 63% 3,609 *
Colorado……..51% 54% 222 *
Connecticut…..51% 59% 1,307 *
Delaware……..59% 80% 0
D. C…………91% 90% 50
Florida………50% 53% 182 *
Georgia………45% 49% 47 *
Hawaii……….71% 72% 0
Idaho………..32% 33% 45
Illinois……..57% 65% 130 *
Indiana………44% 49% 88 *
Iowa…………52% 63% 24 *
Kansas……….38% 37% 39
Kentucky……..38% 29% 117 *
Louisiana…….58% 41% 1
Maine………..56% 57% 64
Maryland……..62% 65% 236 *
Massachusetts…61% 55% 132 *
Michigan……..53% 71% 222 *
Minnesota…….53% 79% 6
Mississippi…..44% 46% 85
Missouri……..44% 71% 12
Montana………42% 40% 49
Nebraska……..38% 44% 27
Nevada……….52% 69% 3
New Hampshire…52% 35% 10
New Jersey……58% 61% 327 *
New Mexico……53% 60% 13
New York……..63% 68% 902 *
North Carolina..48% 48% -4 *
North Dakota….39% 15% 3
Ohio…………50% 59% 229 *
Oklahoma……..33% 32% 2
Oregon……….53% 58% 330
Pennsylvania….52% 43% 292 *
Rhode Island….63% 60% 29
South Carolina..44% 47% 111 *
South Dakota….40% 44% 0
Tennessee…….39% 40% 8
Texas………..41% 43% 53
Utah…………25% 23% 106
Vermont………67% 65% 61
Virginia……..51% 65% 160 *
Washington……55% 57% 1,217
West Virginia…36% 36% 29
Wisconsin…….53% 48% 15 *
Wyoming………28% 25% 3

No one knows what the unadjusted exit polls look like in 2012. And 19 states were not even exit polled. Maybe we’ll get to see the polls a year from now – when all talk of 2012 election fraud has died down.

The late votes can be viewed as a proxy for the unadjusted state exit polls. In 2008, 10 million late votes matched the polls. Unlike an exit poll survey, however, naysayers cannot use the worn out bogus claims that a) late poll “respondents” are lying about how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Democrats are more anxious to be interviewed than Republicans.

But all we have is the National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote and shows that Obama was a 50-48% winner. All demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote. About 80 questions were asked of over 25,000 exit poll respondents, but the most important was missing: Who did you vote for in 2008: Obama, McCain or Other?

The past vote question has always been asked in prior exit polls. It is used as the basis for the True Vote Model to measure prior election voter turnout and vote shares in the current election. The returning voter mix displayed in the adjusted Final National Exit Poll has been determined to be impossible in at least four presidential elections – a clear indicator of a fraudulent vote count.

As in every presidential election since 1988, the Democrat Obama did much better than the recorded vote. If the Late Votes are representative of the total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud. Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

In the 2000, 2004, and 2008 elections, late votes recorded after Election Day showed a dramatic increase in Democratic vote shares. The late votes closely matched the state and national exit polls and the True Vote Model. The anomaly is also apparently occurring in 2012.

2000: 102.6 million votes recorded on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.
Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.

2004: 116.7 million votes recorded on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.
Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes.

2008: 121 million votes recorded on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.
Obama won 10.2 million late votes by 59.2-37.5%. He won the 131 million recorded votes by 52.9-45.6%, a 9.5 million vote margin. But he did much better in the unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61-37% (17,836 respondents, a 31 million vote margin. He also won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. Obama had an identical 58.0% in the True Vote Model, exactly matching and confirming the state exit polls.

But this is the kicker: the exit polls and True Vote Model vote shares closely matched the 10 million late recorded votes!

To summarize Obama in 2008:
1- National Exit poll (17,836 respondents): 61.0%
2- State exit poll weighted aggregate (82,388 respondents): 58.0%
3- True Vote Model: 58.0%
4- Late vote (10.2 million): 59.2%
5- Recorded vote: 52.9%

The CNN 2008 Election site shows Obama winning by 66.88-58.43 million votes, an 8.45 million margin. The final recorded vote was 69.50-59.95, a 9.55 million margin. Why has CNN not updated the 2008 Election website to include the final 4.15 million votes? Obama won 63% of them.

- Could it be that since the winner has been decided, there is no longer an incentive on the part of the perennial vote thieves to continue switching late votes? Plausible.
– Could it be that the late votes are paper ballots (provisionals, absentees) and not from DREs? Absolutely.
– Could it be that the late votes are coming in from Democratic strongholds? Maybe some, but surely not all.

State vote totals show that the late votes are a reasonable representation of the total electorate. The deviation between the Late and Election Day recorded votes is less than 3% in 20 states. There are 8 in which the deviation exceeds 10% (4 for Obama and 4 for Romney). There are currently 12 with fewer than 3,000 late votes. View the data tables, bar chart and frequency chart in the 2012 Forecasting model.

The consistent Democratic late vote share discrepancies from the Election Day shares are not proof of fraud. But there is no reason why the phenomenon is ignored in the mainstream media and academia. Obviously, without having an accurate composition of the late vote demographics we cannot make a definitive judgment as to whether they are representative of the total electorate. But there are a number of reasons why Obama would be expected to do better in the late vote. The only question is how much better?

1)Late votes are cast on paper ballots, not DREs or optiscans. Therefore we would expect a higher Democratic share than on Election Day because voting machines are rigged. Check.

2)There is no incentive to fix the votes after the election. Check.

3)The increase in Democratic late vote share has occurred in each election since 2000, enforcing the case that it is a structural phenomenon. Check.

4)In 2008, Obama had a 59% share compared to 52% on Election Day. There were 10 million late uncounted votes or 7.8% of 131 million recorded. In 2004, there were 5 million late votes of 122 million (4%). In 2000, 3 million of 105 million (3%). The late vote percentage is rising faster than the increase in minority voters. Check.

5) The average late vote margin exceeded the recorded margin by 11%.
Margins: State Exit Poll aggregate,National Exit Poll,Late Vote share,Recorded share,Deviation
2000 5. 2. 10 0.5 9.5
2004 4. 5. 8. -2.4 10.4
2008 18 24 20 7.3 13.6
2012 na na 14 2.7 11.3

6)Blacks and Hispanics voted at a higher rate for Obama in 2012. Since the total vote declined by 7 million, there were fewer white voters, thus increasing Obama’s total share. Approximately 13% of 2012 voters were black and 10% Latino. Check.

7) Obama’s 2-party late vote shares far exceed his Election Day shares (see above).

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry: 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama: 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
3 Comments

Posted by on November 9, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

3 responses to “The Late Recorded Votes: A confirmation of the True Vote?

  1. sidney18511

    November 12, 2012 at 12:47 pm

    I think your first conclusion was on the money. Once it was called for Obama, there was no need to flip votes. All this conservative nonsense about this being a right leaning country is bull. People are conservative when it comes to their personal finances, but the majority want their country to move foward, and it is up to us to drag the republicans from their caves and into the 21st century.

     
  2. davidgmills

    November 23, 2012 at 11:03 pm

    So it looks like instead of Exit Polls the new gold standard (for fraud detection) will be the late counted votes. I guess we will have to see how those get rigged.

     

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