JFK Witness Deaths: Graphical Proof of a Conspiracy

14 Oct

JFK Witness Deaths: Graphical Proof of a Conspiracy

Richard Charnin
Oct.14, 2013
Updated:Nov.26, 2013

JFK Blog Post Index: Richard Charnin JFK Blog Posts

This post is updated for the latest data, analysis and graphics from the JFK Calc Spreadsheet/database of Unnatural and Suspicious Deaths. Mortality rates used for expected deaths and probabilities are from http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html.

Assuming that 1400+ material witnesses were connected to the assassination, then based on annual mortality rates for major causes of death, 214 deaths were expected in the 1964-78 period (196 natural and 18 unnatural). But there were at least 85 unnatural deaths (50 homicides, 8 suicides, 24 accidents, 3 unknown). The probability of these unnatural deaths is E-73 (1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion). The probability is still ZERO (E-61) assuming 78 official unnatural deaths.

There are 120 suspicious deaths listed in JFK Calc. Seventy-eight (78) were officially ruled to be unnatural (35 homicides, 15 suicides, 25 accidents, 3 unknown). Forty-two (42) were ruled natural (heart attacks, cancers, other). But since many accidents, suicides and natural deaths were likely homicides, the number of unnatural deaths was adjusted to 85 (including 50 homicides).

To put the magnitude of the probabilities in context, there are approximately 10^24 (one trillion trillion) stars in the universe. The virtual ZERO probability of guessing the name of a star is much higher than the probability that there was not a conspiracy to assassinate JFK. This is mathematical proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

The 1964-78 national homicide rate was 0.000084 (8 per 100,000). Therefore, among an estimated 1400+ JFK-related witnesses, only two (1400*15*.000084) homicides would normally be expected in the 15 year period. But there were at least 50 homicides. It is conceivable that of the other 70 deaths (35 unnatural and 35 suspicious), as many as 50 were actually homicides and therefore 100 of 1400+ material witnesses were murdered. Since only 17 natural and one unnatural deaths would normally be expected in a group of 120 in 15 years, it is not unreasonable that nearly 100 in JFK Calc were homicides.

These books are highly recommended for detailed information on JFK witnesses:
Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination by Michael Benson (1400+ names, 95 in JFK Calc)
Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne (50 suspicious deaths, all in JFK Calc)
Crossfire by Jim Marrs (103 “convenient” deaths, virtually all in JFK Calc)
They Killed Our President by Jesse Ventura, Richard Russell and David Wayne (63 reasons)

The Poisson function calculates the probability of rare events based on two factors: the actual number (n) and the expected number E= N*T*R. Assuming N=1400 witnesses, T=15 years, n=85 unnatural deaths, R=0.000230 JFK-witness mortality: E= 4.82 = 1400 * 15 * 0.000230
P = Poisson(n, E, false)
P = Poisson (85, 4.82, false) = 3.26E-73
P = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000326

``` JFK Calc: 120 witness deaths (expected vs. actual) Cause of Death, (Exp)ected (Off)icial (JFK)Calc (average 1964-78 mortality rate) In a group of 120, 18 deaths would be expected (17 natural; 1 unnatural) during a 15 year period. Cause..........Exp Off JFK Rate UNNATURAL Homicide...... 0.15 35 50 (0.000084) Accident...... 1.00 25 24 (0.000594) Suicide....... 0.23 15 08 (0.000130) Unknown........0.02 03 03 (0.000010) Total..........1.4 78 85 (0.000818) NATURAL Cardiac....... 8.7 22 12 (0.004913) Cancer........ 3.5 06 03 (0.001991) Other......... 4.6 14 20 (0.002480) Total.........16.8 42 35 (0.009375) TOTAL DEATHS..18.2 120 120 (0.010193)```

``` Expected Deaths (1964-78) 1400 material witnesses (based on annual mortality rates) Natural. 196 14.02% Unnatural 18 1.25% Total... 214 15.28% .... Begin Card Canc Vasc Oth Accid Suic Homic End 1964 1,400 7.61 2.71 2.39 1.26 0.90 0.18 0.08 1,385 1965 1,385 7.60 2.74 2.37 1.25 0.90 0.18 0.08 1,370 1966 1,370 7.58 2.75 2.36 1.25 0.92 0.18 0.08 1,355 1967 1,355 7.35 2.76 2.33 1.24 0.92 0.18 0.09 1,340 1968 1,340 7.43 2.78 2.32 1.26 0.92 0.18 0.09 1,325 1969 1,325 7.24 2.78 2.30 1.27 0.92 0.18 0.10 1,310 1970 1,310 6.90 2.78 2.27 1.27 0.91 0.18 0.10 1,296 1971 1,296 6.90 2.79 2.25 1.26 0.90 0.18 0.10 1,281 1972 1,281 6.86 2.80 2.23 1.25 0.90 0.18 0.11 1,267 1973 1,267 6.75 2.80 2.21 1.25 0.89 0.18 0.11 1,253 1974 1,253 6.42 2.82 2.19 1.24 0.88 0.18 0.11 1,239 1975 1,239 6.04 2.80 2.15 1.23 0.87 0.18 0.12 1,225 1976 1,225 5.98 2.84 2.12 1.22 0.85 0.18 0.12 1,212 1977 1,212 5.79 2.85 2.08 1.21 0.84 0.18 0.12 1,199 1978 1,199 5.74 2.87 2.04 1.20 0.83 0.18 0.12 1,186 ....Total...102.. 42.. 34.. 19.. 13.. 3.. 2.. 214 ....Share.. 7.3% 3.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 15.3% 1- Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee). 2. At least 63 of 120 witnesses in JFK Calc were sought to testify in four investigations. 3. Unnatural deaths far exceeded the expected number based on national mortality rates. 4. The probability of 33 unnatural deaths among 1400 witnesses is ZERO. There were at least 85 unnatural deaths. 5. These are the probabilities of 10-50 unnatural deaths for 1500-2500 witnesses. 6. Even assuming 25,000 FBI interviews, the probability of at least 26 homicides in 1964-66 is 1 in 400 billion. Only 4-5 would normally be expected. 7. There were at least 18 unnatural deaths (11 homicides) of 552 Warren Commission witnesses. Only 7 unnatural deaths would normally be expected. 8. There were at least 28 homicides of 1100 witnesses sought in 4 investigations. Only one was expected. 9. There is a ZERO probability of 15 unnatural deaths in 7 years and 30 deaths in 15 years. 10. Given 1400 JFK-related witnesses and average 1964-78 U.S. unnatural mortality rates, there was a ZERO probability of at least 30 unnatural deaths from 1964-78. The probability of 83 unnatural deaths is E-31. The correct JFK-weighted probability is E-73 (not that it makes a difference). -------------------------------------------------------------- LONDON TIMES ACTUARY (1964-1966) At least 18 deaths (13 unnatural); assume 459 witnesses Normally, 2 unnatural deaths would be expected. Using the 0.000207 weighted rate, the probability is ZERO. P = E-17 = POISSON (13, .29, true) P = 1 in 100,000 trillion WARREN COMMISSION- 552 witnesses At least 18 unnatural deaths among 552 witnesses Normally, 7 unnatural deaths would be expected from 1964-78. Using the 0.000257 weighted WC witness rate, the probability of at least 18 deaths is ZERO: P = E-11 = 1- POISSON (17, 2.13, true) P = 1 in 60 billion WARREN COMMISSION- 418 witnesses (CIA) Normally, 5 unnatural deaths would be expected. Using the 0.00057 weighted WC witness rate, the probability of at least 18 deaths is ZERO: P = E-13 = 1- POISSON (17, 1.61, true) P = 1 in 5 trillion Probability of at least 11 homicides is ZERO: P = E-11 = 1-POISSON(10, 0.53, true) P = 1 in 70 billion 1400 MATERIAL WITNESSES (Who's Who in the JFK Assassination) 1964-66: at least 42 unnatural deaths Normally, 3 would be expected. Using the 0.000842 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO: P = 2.2E-30 = POISSON (42, 3.53, false) P = 1 in 10000 trillion trillion 1964-78: at least 85 unnatural deaths Normally, 17 would be expected. Using the 0.000818 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO: P = E-31 = POISSON (85, 17.18, false) P = 1 in 1 million trillion trillion Using the JFK-weighted rate (0.000235): P = E-73 = POISSON (83, 4.88, false) 1964-78: at least 50 homicides Normally, 2 would be expected. Using the 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probability is ZERO: P = E-53 = POISSON (50, 1.77, false) P = 1 in 100,000 trillion trillion trillion trillion Four Investigations: 1100+ witnesses called or sought to testify 39 unnatural deaths (14 expected). Using the 0.000207 unnatural weighted rate, the probability is ZERO: P = 4.6E-27 = POISSON (39, 3.55, false) P = 1 in 200 trillion trillion 1964-66: 25,000 FBI Interviews At least 26 homicides (4 expected) Using the 0.000059 average national homicide rate, the probability is ZERO: P = 2.4E-12 = 1- POISSON (25, 4.44, true) P = 1 in 400 billion ******************************************************* T years; n deaths; Probability; Exp= N*T*R; Mortality Rate; Cause LONDON TIMES ACTUARY T n Probability Exp Mortality Cause 3 18 9.93E-18 0.90 0.000537 Weighted Total N=560 3 13 9.96E-18 0.29 0.000207 Unnatural N=459 3 8 4.49E-14 0.08 0.000059 Homicides 3 13 1.05E-24 0.08 0.000059 Homicides (spec) TOTAL MATERIAL 1,400 1 22 6.59E-21 1.15 0.000825 National Unnatural 1 22 1.79E-37 0.20 0.000139 Weighted Unnatural 1 24 8.60E-19 1.87 0.001338 Weighted Total 1 16 7.80E-32 0.08 0.000056 Homicides 1 24 3.50E-51 0.08 0.000056 Homicides (spec) 3 42 2.22E-30 3.53 0.000842 National Unnatural 3 42 5.14E-55 0.86 0.000205 Weighted Unnatural 3 47 3.93E-32 4.32 0.001029 Weighted Total 3 26 3.81E-43 0.25 0.000059 Homicides 3 42 2.36E-77 0.25 0.000059 Homicides (spec) 15 85 1.18E-31 17.18 0.000818 National Unnatural 15 85 3.26E-73 4.88 0.000232 Weighted Unnatural 15 120 2.37E-27 36.09 0.001719 Weighted Total 15 50 1.42E-52 1.77 0.000084 Homicides 15 92 9.17E-121 1.77 0.000084 Homicides (spec) WHO'S WHO IN JFK 1,400 15 73 1.12E-23 17.18 0.000818 National Unnatural 15 73 2.86E-59 4.71 0.000224 Weighted Unnatural 15 95 2.37E-27 24.55 0.001169 Weighted Total 15 46 8.01E-48 1.77 0.000084 Homicides 15 88 6.26E-114 1.77 0.000084 Homicides (spec) WARREN COMMISSION 552 3 10 2.16E-06 1.39 0.000842 National Unnatural 3 10 2.26E-11 0.40 0.000245 Weighted Unnatural 15 18 2.47E-04 6.78 0.000818 National Unnatural 15 18 1.64E-11 2.13 0.000257 Weighted Unnatural 15 30 2.47E-03 17.92 0.002164 Weighted Total 3 6 1.14E-09 0.10 0.000059 Homicides 15 11 2.54E-10 0.70 0.000084 Homicides 15 18 1.21E-19 0.70 0.000084 Homicides (spec) "HIT LIST" 50 15 43 2.79E-20 6.97 0.000842 National Unnatural 15 42 3.19E-42 1.77 0.000084 Homicides 15 50 1.42E-53 1.77 0.000084 Homicides (spec) Official Cause of Death 1,400 15 78 6.63E-27 17.18 0.000818 National Unnatural 15 78 5.77E-61 5.41 0.000257 Weighted Unnatural 15 120 6.15E-26 38.59 0.001837 Weighted Total 15 34 1.57E-31 1.77 0.000084 Homicides FOUR INVESTIGATIONS 1,142 Witnesses (est.)) 15 30 2.47E-03 17.92 0.002164 Warren Com (552) 7 16 1.32E-16 0.72 0.001293 Garrison (80 est) 2 8 8.61E-09 0.39 0.001293 Church (150 est) 3 21 1.12E-13 2.35 0.002172 HSCA (360 est) Unnatural 39 3 10 2.26E-11 0.40 0.000245 Warren Com (552) 7 12 1.34E-21 0.10 0.000173 Garrison (80 est) 2 5 2.99E-10 0.03 0.000109 Church (150 est) 3 12 1.11E-16 0.19 0.000176 HSCA (360 est) 15 63 1.97E-06 33.38 0.001949 Total Deaths 15 39 3.21E-08 14.02 0.000818 National Unnatural 15 39 4.16E-27 3.55 0.000207 Weighted Unnatural 15 27 4.43E-25 1.44 0.000084 Homicides 15 38 5.26E-40 1.44 0.000084 Homicides (spec) FBI INTERVIEWS? 25,000 3 26 2.02E-12 4.44 0.000059 Homicides 15 100 1.96E-22 31.62 0.000084 Homicides (spec) HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Witnesses: N Homicides: n Time: T= 15 years Rate: R= 0.000084 Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false) Example: In the table, the probability P of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001 The probability is of course higher assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals: P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion). Ten (8000*15*0.000084) homicides would normally be expected. ........................................Homicides (n) ......................... N......10...... 20...... 30...... 40...... 50...... 60...... 70...... 80 Warren Commission 552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132 4 Investigations 1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108 "Who's Who in the JFK Assassination" 1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100 Warren Commission Index 2479 1.10E-03 1.50E-10 1.27E-19 3.78E-30 9.30E-42 3.12E-54 1.99E-67 3.05E-81 3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75 4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65 5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58 6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52 7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47 8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43 About these ads var wpcom_adclk_hovering = false; var wpcom_adclk_recorded = false; var wpcom_adclk_theme = "Choco"; var wpcom_adclk_slot = "wpcom_below_post_adsafe"; var wpcom_adclk_network = ( typeof wpcom_adclk_network === "undefined" ) ? 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``` 12 Comments Posted by Richard Charnin on October 14, 2013 in Uncategorized   Tags: conspiracy facts, Executive Action, HSCA, JFK, JFK assassination, JFK conspiracy proved mathematically, jfk database, JFK math proof, JFK mortality rates, jfk spreadsheet, JFK statistics, JFK witness death timeline, JFK witness graphs, Richard Charnin JFK, Unnatural deaths', Warren Commission ```
``` ← Exposing John McAdams: World-class Professor of Disinformation Spreadsheet Links: JFK Witness Probability Database, True Vote Models, Unadjusted Exit Polls → 12 Responses to JFK Witness Deaths: Graphical Proof of a Conspiracy Andrew Godfrey October 14, 2013 at 1:13 pm There was a reason for so many mysterious deaths. These people knew too much about what really happened on Nov. 22, 1963 and somebody wanted to make sure they would never testify. Reply   Pingback: Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud | Richard Charnin's Blog Pingback: JFK Mysterious Witness Deaths: London Sunday Times and HSCA Cover-up | Richard Charnin's Blog Pingback: Comments to the LA Times article on an upcoming PBS Special on JFK | Richard Charnin's Blog Pingback: JFK Assassination: A Probability Analysis of Warren Commission Witness Unnatural Deaths | Richard Charnin's Blog Pingback: Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary | Richard Charnin's Blog Pingback: JFK Witness Deaths: How many Accidents, Suicides and Natural Deaths were Homicides? | Richard Charnin's Blog Pingback: JFK: REELZ’s Nonsensical”Smoking Gun”, the Parkland Doctors and “Executive Action” | Richard Charnin's Blog Pingback: JFK Coup d’etat 50, FED 100 | flybynews Jody Q. Rivers November 25, 2013 at 9:36 pm This book is a unique and welcome addition to the massive trove of JFK Assassination literature. There is no conjecture here, just the facts concerning fifty mysterious witness deaths presented in an easy-to-read format. Warren Commission apologists are reduced to irrelevancy; the proof of conspiracy is overwhelming and beyond any doubt. The authors cite my probability analysis in the background information presented in the beginning of the book. The calculations are fully explained in my blog post: [...]1400 JFK-related witnesses, the probability of at least- 15 UNNATURAL deaths within ONE year of the assassination: 1 in 167 TRILLION.- 33 UNNATURAL deaths within THREE years: 1 in 137 TRILLION TRILLION.- 70 UNNATURAL deaths from 1964-77: 1 in 714 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION.- 40 HOMICIDES from 1964-77: 1 in a BILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.552 Warren Commission witnesses- EXACTLY 10 HOMICIDES in THREE years: 1 in 31,000 TRILLION.- EXACTLY 14 HOMICIDES from 1964-1977: 1 in 4,000 TRILLION. Reply   Harry Kittten November 26, 2013 at 5:38 pm LBJ did it. He had the motive: 1.) JFK was going to kick LBJ off the ticket for re-election in 1964, ruining his chances of becoming President, and opening LBJ up to criminal investigation for a murder 2.) LBJ hated the Kennedys. 3.) LBJ used a hit man as far back as 1951, named Malcolm Wallace. LBJ helped get Wallace out of jail and the charges dropped. An unknown fingerprint was found in the snipers nest in the schoolbook depository. It matched Wallace’s. Reply   JAMRPB November 26, 2013 at 8:48 pm Jean Hill went to her grave swearing that there were 4-6 shots she heard that day in Dallas. She was the CLOSEST eye winess to the limo when the shots were fired…She NEVER recanted her ORIGINAL TESTIMONY. Her granddaughter stated she believed her grandmother after numberous FBI interigations. Reply   Leave a Reply Enter your comment here... Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Email (required) (Address never made public) Name (required) Website You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. ( Log Out / Change ) You are commenting using your Twitter account. ( Log Out / Change ) You are commenting using your Facebook account. ( Log Out / Change ) You are commenting using your Google+ account. ( Log Out / Change ) Cancel Connecting to %s var highlander_expando_javascript = function(){ var input = document.createElement( 'input' ), comment = jQuery( '#comment' ); if ( 'placeholder' in input ) { comment.attr( 'placeholder', jQuery( '.comment-textarea label' ).remove().text() ); } // Expando Mode: start small, then auto-resize on first click + text length jQuery( '#comment-form-identity' ).hide(); jQuery( '#comment-form-subscribe' ).hide(); jQuery( '#commentform .form-submit' ).hide(); comment.css( { 'height':'10px' } ).one( 'focus', function() { var timer = setInterval( HighlanderComments.resizeCallback, 10 ) jQuery( this ).animate( { 'height': HighlanderComments.initialHeight } ).delay( 100 ).queue( function(n) { clearInterval( timer ); HighlanderComments.resizeCallback(); n(); } ); jQuery( '#comment-form-identity' ).slideDown(); jQuery( '#comment-form-subscribe' ).slideDown(); jQuery( '#commentform .form-submit' ).slideDown(); }); } jQuery(document).ready( highlander_expando_javascript ); Notify me of follow-up comments via email. ```
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