JFK Witness Deaths: Graphical Proof of a Conspiracy

Richard Charnin

Oct.14, 2013

Updated:July 26, 2014

** JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Probability Tables
**

This post is updated for the latest data, analysis and graphics from the ** JFK Calc Spreadsheet/database of Unnatural and Suspicious Deaths.** Mortality rates used for expected deaths and probabilities are from

**http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html**.

Assuming that 1400+ material witnesses were connected to the assassination, then based on annual mortality rates for major causes of death, 214 deaths were expected in the 1964-78 period (196 natural and 18 unnatural). Among the 122 suspicious deaths in JFK Calc, 78 were officially ruled unnatural.**But there were approximately 100 unnatural deaths based on statistical expectation (85 homicides).**

The Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events based on two factors: the actual and statistically expected number.

Of the 78 JFK-related witness deaths officially ruled to be * unnatural*, 34 were homicides, 16 suicides, 24 accidents, 4 unknown. The probability P is:

**P = E-61 (1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion).**

Forty-four (44) deaths were officially ruled * natural* (heart attacks, cancers, other). But many accidents, suicides and natural deaths were likely homicides, so the number of unnatural deaths was adjusted to 96 (85 homicides) based on expected mortality. Given N=1400 witnesses, T=15 years, n=96 unnatural deaths, R=0.000127 (JFK-weighted mortality), we calculate the JFK-weighted unnatural expected deaths as:

**E = 2.66 = 1400*15*0.000127**

P = Poisson (96, 2.66, false) = 3.26E-111

P = Poisson (96, 2.66, false) = 3.26E-111

To put the magnitude of the probabilities in context, there are approximately 10^24 (one trillion trillion) stars in the universe. **The virtual ZERO probability of guessing the name of a star is much higher than the probability that there was not a conspiracy to assassinate JFK. It is mathematical proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.**

The 1964-78 national homicide rate was 0.000084 (8 per 100,000). Therefore, among an estimated 1400+ JFK-related witnesses, only two (1400*15*.000084) homicides would normally be expected in the 15 year period. But there were at least 80 homicides. It is conceivable that among the other 40 deaths, as many as 20 were actually homicides and therefore 100 of 1400+ material witnesses were murdered. **Only 17 natural and one unnatural death would normally be expected in a group of 122 in 15 years. **

These books are highly recommended for detailed information on JFK witnesses:

* Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination* by Michael Benson (1400+ names, 95 in JFK Calc)

*by Richard Belzer and David Wayne (50 suspicious deaths, all in JFK Calc)*

**Hit List****by Jim Marrs (103 “convenient” deaths, virtually all in JFK Calc)**

*Crossfire***by Jesse Ventura, Richard Russell and David Wayne (63 reasons)**

*They Killed Our President***Expected Deaths (1964-78)**

1400 material witnesses

(based on annual mortality rates)

Natural. 196 14.02%

Unnatural 18 1.25%

Total… 214 15.28%

JFK Calc: 122 witness deaths (expected vs. actual)

Cause of Death, (Exp)ected (Off)icial (JFK)Calc (average 1964-78 mortality rate)

`Cause..........Exp Off JFK Rate`

**UNNATURAL**

Homicide...... 0.15 34 85 (0.000084)

Accident...... 1.00 24 09 (0.000594)

Suicide....... 0.23 16 03 (0.000130)

Unknown........0.02 04 04 (0.000010)

Total...........1.4 78 101 (0.000818)

```
```**NATURAL**

Cardiac........ 8.7 25 12 (0.004913)

Cancer......... 3.5 05 05 (0.001991)

Other.......... 4.6 14 07 (0.002480)

Total..........16.8 44 24 (0.009375)

ALL DEATHS.....18.2 122 122 (0.010193)

Expected Deaths

.... Begin Card Canc Vasc Other Acc Suic Homic Alive

1964 1,400 7.61 2.71 2.39 1.26 0.90 0.18 0.08 1,385

1965 1,385 7.60 2.74 2.37 1.25 0.90 0.18 0.08 1,370

1966 1,370 7.58 2.75 2.36 1.25 0.92 0.18 0.08 1,355

1967 1,355 7.35 2.76 2.33 1.24 0.92 0.18 0.09 1,340

1968 1,340 7.43 2.78 2.32 1.26 0.92 0.18 0.09 1,325

1969 1,325 7.24 2.78 2.30 1.27 0.92 0.18 0.10 1,310

1970 1,310 6.90 2.78 2.27 1.27 0.91 0.18 0.10 1,296

1971 1,296 6.90 2.79 2.25 1.26 0.90 0.18 0.10 1,281

1972 1,281 6.86 2.80 2.23 1.25 0.90 0.18 0.11 1,267

1973 1,267 6.75 2.80 2.21 1.25 0.89 0.18 0.11 1,253

1974 1,253 6.42 2.82 2.19 1.24 0.88 0.18 0.11 1,239

1975 1,239 6.04 2.80 2.15 1.23 0.87 0.18 0.12 1,225

1976 1,225 5.98 2.84 2.12 1.22 0.85 0.18 0.12 1,212

1977 1,212 5.79 2.85 2.08 1.21 0.84 0.18 0.12 1,199

1978 1,199 5.74 2.87 2.04 1.20 0.83 0.18 0.12 1,186

Expected ..102.. 42.. 34.. 19.. 13... 3... 2.. 214

Share......7.3% 3.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 15.3%

1- Deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

**
**2. 67 of 122 witnesses in *JFK Calc* were sought in four investigations.

3. Unnatural deaths far exceeded expected based on national mortality rates.

4. The probability of 33 unnatural deaths (there were 78 official) among 1400 witnesses is ZERO.

5. Sensitivity analysis probabilities:10-50 unnatural deaths; 1500-2500 witnesses.

6. Even assuming 25,000 FBI interviews, the probability of at least 38 homicides in 1964-66 is E-23. Only 4-5 would normally be expected.

7. There were at least 20 unnatural deaths (17 homicides) of 552 Warren Commission witnesses from 1964-78. Only 7 would normally be expected.

8. There were at least 42 homicides of 1100 witnesses sought in 4 investigations. Only one was expected.

**9. ZERO probability of 15 unnatural deaths in 7 years and 30 deaths in 15 years.**

10. Given 1400 JFK-related witnesses and average 1964-78 U.S. unnatural mortality rates, the ZERO probability threshold is 30 deaths. The unweighted probability of 96 unnatural deaths is E-39. The JFK-weighted probability is E-111.

11. Estimated Expected (214) and Actual (291) deaths of 1400 JFK-related individuals (1964-78) ; 122 listed in JFK Calc

12. About 51 of the 122 deaths were in **Dallas** which has a higher mortality rate than the national average. I tripled the national homicide rate from 0.000084 to 0.000253.

The probability P of 34 official homicides using the adjusted Dallas rate is P = 7.60e-17 or 1 in 13,000 trillion.

--------------------------------------------------------------

**Sample Probabilities**

**LONDON TIMES ACTUARY (1964-1966)**

At least 18 deaths (13 unnatural); assume 459 witnesses

Normally, 2 unnatural deaths would be expected.

Using the 0.000207 weighted rate, the probability is ZERO.

**P = E-17 = POISSON (13, .29, true)**

P = 1 in 100,000 trillion

```
```**WARREN COMMISSION- 552 witnesses**

At least 21 unnatural deaths among 552 witnesses

Normally, 7 unnatural deaths would be expected from 1964-78.

Using the 0.000135 weighted WC witness rate, the probability of at least 21 unnatural deaths is ZERO:

**P = E-20 = POISSON (21, 1.12, false)**

P = 1 in 15 million trillion

** Probability of 18 homicides is ZERO:**

P = E-19 = POISSON(18, 0.53, true)

P = 1 in 8 million trillion

**1400 MATERIAL WITNESSES ***(Who's Who in the JFK Assassination)*

1964-66: at least 45 unnatural deaths

Normally, 3 would be expected.

Using the 0.000842 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO:

**P = E-33 = POISSON (45, 3.53, false)**

P = 1 in 10 million trillion trillion

**1964-78: at least 96 unnatural deaths **

Normally, 17 would be expected.

Using the 0.000818 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO:

**P = E-39 = POISSON (96, 17.18, false)**

P = 1 in 1000 trillion trillion trillion

Using the JFK-weighted rate (0.000127):

**P = E-111 = POISSON (96, 2.66, false) **

**1964-78: at least 80 homicides **

Normally, 2 would be expected.

Using the 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probability is ZERO:

**P = E-100 = POISSON (80, 1.77, false)**

** Four Investigations: 1100+ witnesses called or sought to testify**

49 unnatural deaths (14 expected).

Using the 0.000106 unnatural weighted rate, the probability is ZERO:

**P = E-51 = POISSON (49, 1.81, false)**

**1964-78: 25,000 FBI Interviews **

At least 80 homicides (32 expected)

Using the 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probability is ZERO:

**P = E-23 = POISSON (80, 31.62, false)**

P= 1 in 2 trillion

**
*********************************************************

**HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS**

Witnesses: N

Homicides: n

Time: T= 15 years

Rate: R= 0.000084

Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

**
**Example: In the table, the probability P of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

The probability is of course higher assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals: P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion). Ten (8000*15*0.000084) homicides would normally be expected.

**........................................Homicides (n) .........................**

N......10...... 20...... 30...... 40...... 50...... 60...... 70...... 80

Warren Commission

552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132

**4 Investigations**

1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108

**"Who's Who in the JFK Assassination" **

1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 **1.42E-53** 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100

**Warren Commission Index**

2479 1.10E-03 1.50E-10 1.27E-19 3.78E-30 9.30E-42 3.12E-54 1.99E-67 3.05E-81

3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75

4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65

5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58

6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52

7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47

8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 **2.38E-19** 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43

Andrew Godfrey

October 14, 2013 at 1:13 pm

There was a reason for so many mysterious deaths. These people knew too much about what really happened on Nov. 22, 1963 and somebody wanted to make sure they would never testify.

Jody Q. Rivers

November 25, 2013 at 9:36 pm

This book is a unique and welcome addition to the massive trove of JFK Assassination literature. There is no conjecture here, just the facts concerning fifty mysterious witness deaths presented in an easy-to-read format. Warren Commission apologists are reduced to irrelevancy; the proof of conspiracy is overwhelming and beyond any doubt. The authors cite my probability analysis in the background information presented in the beginning of the book. The calculations are fully explained in my blog post: [...]1400 JFK-related witnesses, the probability of at least- 15 UNNATURAL deaths within ONE year of the assassination: 1 in 167 TRILLION.- 33 UNNATURAL deaths within THREE years: 1 in 137 TRILLION TRILLION.- 70 UNNATURAL deaths from 1964-77: 1 in 714 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION.- 40 HOMICIDES from 1964-77: 1 in a BILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.552 Warren Commission witnesses- EXACTLY 10 HOMICIDES in THREE years: 1 in 31,000 TRILLION.- EXACTLY 14 HOMICIDES from 1964-1977: 1 in 4,000 TRILLION.

Harry Kittten

November 26, 2013 at 5:38 pm

LBJ did it. He had the motive:

1.) JFK was going to kick LBJ off the ticket for re-election in 1964, ruining his chances of becoming President, and opening LBJ up to criminal investigation for a murder

2.) LBJ hated the Kennedys.

3.) LBJ used a hit man as far back as 1951, named Malcolm Wallace. LBJ helped get Wallace out of jail and the charges dropped. An unknown fingerprint was found in the snipers nest in the schoolbook depository. It matched Wallace’s.

JAMRPB

November 26, 2013 at 8:48 pm

Jean Hill went to her grave swearing that there were 4-6 shots she heard that day in Dallas. She was the CLOSEST eye winess to the limo when the shots were fired…She NEVER recanted her ORIGINAL TESTIMONY. Her granddaughter stated she believed her grandmother after numberous FBI interigations.

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February 7, 2014 at 1:22 am

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Ace

February 12, 2014 at 12:55 am

You proved a conspiracy; your math can’t be denied.

The question now is, what was so awful that it still needs to be covered up to this day? LBJ wouldn’t still be covered up; Mafia wouldn’t still be covered up; Castro or Cubans, no; The Dallas Police, no way. Whoever is still covering this up, which would not be individual people now, but an organization or nation, is still active in our time. Not difficult to figure out.