2016 Primary Exit Polls Party-ID: forcing a match to the recorded vote
July 22, 2016
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries
This analysis seeks to determine an approximate True Vote in the 2016 Democratic primaries.
Clinton led the average of the adjusted exit polls (which were forced to match the recorded vote) by 56.4-43.6%. But there has been a significant increase in Independents tn National Party-ID statistics since 2014.
2014 National Party-ID: Dem 40.5 – Rep 35.2 – Ind 24.2%
2-party mix: Dem 62.6 – Ind 37.4%
Note the 19% increase in Independents since 2014:
2016 National Party-ID: Dem 32 -Rep 25 -Ind 43%
2-party mix: Ind 57.3- Dem 42.7%.
Gallup poll Party preference trend: http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
In the exit polled primaries, Sanders had a 51.3% True Vote and a 43.6% Recorded Vote.
The calculation of the True Vote differs from the Recorded Vote (adjusted Exit poll) in just one aspect: Independent and Democratic weights are based on the actual 2016 Party-ID mix in which independents comprise 57.3% and Democrats just 42.7% of the two-party mix. Sanders vote shares are unchanged.
In other words the True Vote assumes that no voters were disenfranchised and/or removed from the rolls.
The 2016 Party-ID mix for each state is estimated by applying the equivalent proportional change from the 2014 National Party-ID to the 2016 National Party ID.
Let’s compare the the 2016 Party-ID effect on vote shares to the adjusted exit poll Party-ID weights in three primaries: NY, MA, WI.
Candidate vote shares are held constant. The only difference between the adjusted exit poll (which was forced to match the recorded vote) and the True Vote is the Party-ID mix. Sanders does significantly better when the 2016 Party-ID percentages are used.
View the exit polls here:
View the spreadsheet calculations here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=610570359
NY Primary Exit poll matched to the recorded vote
NY True Vote
MA Primary Exit poll matched to the recorded vote
MA True Vote
WI Primary Exit poll matched to the recorded vote
WI True Vote
|Sanders||True Vote (2016 Party-ID)||Exit Poll (Recorded)|