Trump 2020: 25 scenarios

27 Jan

Richard Charnin – Jan. 27, 2021


(based on estimated turnout and vote shares)

Trump range: Share 52.6% to 56.8%; Votes: 83.3m to 90.0m; margin: 11.7m to 25.1m

Gallup ID31.0%31.0%38.0%
Trump %12.0%96.0%57.0%
Base caseBidenTrump
Vote share41.6%56.2%
% Dem
% IndTrump

Posted by on January 27, 2021 in Uncategorized


17 responses to “Trump 2020: 25 scenarios

  1. Rik Myers

    January 28, 2021 at 1:25 am

    Richard , you must realize most people do not have your mathematical mind and these numbers mean nothing to them. it would be so much more effective if with every graph spreadsheet etc yiu gave a english language WORD EXPLANATION of what those numbers mean to you and the world. i can’t use raw numbers without the explanations to show people there was massive fraud. I wish you would do a through analysis with word explanation of all the various voter fraud techniques used by DNC this past nov 3 . i feel from what i observed the DEMS aslo stole the senate seats in Georgia using fraction magic on the dominion machines ( did pennslyvamia use Dominion or was the smartmatic fraction magic loaded onto a different company brand voting machine in PA? we really need to have you explaining your data to the average person who barely passed grammar school math. hope you can publish a paper to prove the election fraud to average citizen and government officials. blessings & good fortune, rick myers ( aka Ben Wilder)

  2. eklavyaartist

    February 13, 2021 at 10:06 am

    Where do you get the numbers for Republican, Democratic and Independent support? Why is the number of Democrat defectors far more than Republican defectors? After Republican Voters against Trumpism (RVAT), the Lincoln Project etc Republican defectors should be more than Democratic defectors? How do you get the range for Independent support? That is very clearly tilted towards Trump.
    Contrived analysis. Does not show anything.

  3. Richard Charnin

    February 13, 2021 at 11:53 pm

    That’s why I run 25 scenarios for various vote share increments from worst to best case. Have you ever seen this before? Do you understand the logic? Probably not.

    • eklavyaartist

      February 14, 2021 at 4:19 am

      I totally understand the logic. I am asking where did you get the 10-14 or 49-57 range of Dem and Ind support for Trump from? Both the lower bounds are too high. Democratic support for Trump could easily be 5%, Independent support for Trump could be 40%.

      • Richard Charnin

        February 14, 2021 at 9:48 am

        According to the 2016 NEP (which is always adjusted to match the bogus recorded vote) Trump had 46% of Independents. He must have done better than that since 2016 was rigged for Clinton. Similarly, Trump had 8% of Dems in the 2016 NEP. He also did better than that. Trump won a true vote landslide in 2020. He did better than the worst case scenario which he won by 11 million votes.. How much better? Pick a reasonable scenario. You have 24 to chose from.

      • eklavyaartist

        February 15, 2021 at 1:13 am

        I thought that the percentage of demographic groups in responders is changed to match the result not the percentage of responders in a group claiming to vote for a candidate. Do you have any source on how exactly the adjustment is done?

      • eklavyaartist

        February 15, 2021 at 1:04 am

        So, your justification is that 2016 was rigged. Strange.
        And how do you deduce the 2020 support numbers? Does it seem impossible to you that Trump’s support among Independents and Democrats could have actually shrunk?
        Also, was the 2016 exit poll actually adjusted against Trump? Other authors claim that 2016 unadjusted exit poll showed Clinton winning by a larger margin than the recorded vote.
        Obviously, that does not mean that election was rigged against Clinton. Republicans are underrepresented in unadjusted exit polls, usually. Trump was the legitimate winner in 2016.

  4. Richard Charnin

    February 15, 2021 at 9:02 pm

    The vote shares are also adjusted. How else to match the recorded vote? Adjusting weighting factors are not enough. Yes, Trump’s share of independents grew in 2020. You don’t believe there was fraud in 2016? Illegal voters and rigged computers/software were components of 2016 fraud. It’s obvious HRC stole the primaries. What makes you think she did not try to steal the presidential election?. Check my blog posts for 2008, 2012 and 2016. elections. I forecast the bogus recorded EV exactly in each and estimated the True Vote. In 2020 I estimated the True Vote – along with the sensitivity analysis.
    My blog posts:

    • eklavyaartist

      February 16, 2021 at 3:36 am

      The previous election crosstabs were impossible in 2020, 2004, 1992, 1972, – as you have pointed out. The share of respondents claiming to have voted for Bush and Gore were manipulated to match the recorded vote in 2004, for example. But were the share of Gore and Bush 2000 voters claiming to have voted for Bush 2004 and Kerry manipulated? I thought that you would know.

    • eklavyaartist

      February 16, 2021 at 3:53 am

      Is this the correct unadjusted exit poll from 2016?

    • eklavyaartist

      February 16, 2021 at 3:56 am

      ‘Yes, Trump’s share of independents grew in 2020.’ How do you know?

      • Richard Charnin

        February 17, 2021 at 3:01 pm

        In 2016, third party recorded votes included 3.29% to Johnson, 0.52% McMullen, 1.07% Stein and 0.98% to Others. So let’s assume that 4.3% would have gone to Trump and 1.6% to Clinton. Based on allocation of third party (independent) voters to Trump and Clinton, Trump wins Independents by 50.3-43.6%. He obviously did much better than that against Biden.

        According to the 2016 NEP, Trump won Independents by 46-42% over Clinton (he very likely did better than that.). Other Independent voters comprised 12%. Allocating the 12%, based on adjustments to the NEP, Trump would win 55%=46+9%, Clinton 45%= 42+3%.

        I utilized 2016 and 2020 NEP data forced to match the recorded vote. I make reasonable assumptions to provide an estimate of the true vote based on a sensitivity analysis of alternative vote shares. Pre-election and exit polls were all rigged for the Dems. That is the only logical conclusion one can make, based on analysis and common sense.

        This is my final response to your comments. You asked legitimate questions and I answered them. There is nothing more to say.

      • eklavyaartist

        February 17, 2021 at 8:14 pm

        Assumption (i) ‘So let’s assume that 4.3% would have gone to Trump and 1.6% to Clinton.’
        (ii) ‘He obviously did much better than that against Biden.’
        (iii) ‘Pre-election and exit polls were all rigged for the Dems.’
        Thanks for answering, anyway. I am beginning to see how you reached the conclusion that every Presidential Election from 1968 to 2020 was rigged.

  5. eklavyaartist

    February 17, 2021 at 8:56 am

    The Edison Research Exit Poll, which shows Trump winning the veteran vote by 10% – implies that 23.7 million veterans in 2020. Which is several million more than the number of live veterans. That means that the Exit Poll was adjusted in favor of Trump.

    • eklavyaartist

      February 17, 2021 at 9:26 am

      One more thing, the adjusted Edison Research Exit Poll implies that there were 68 million returning Trump voters in 2020. That would be several million more than live Trump 2016 voters.

      • Richard Charnin

        March 24, 2021 at 2:14 pm

        You are assuming that there were 63 million Trump 2016 voters and that there was no fraud. But Trump had more than 63 million recorded votes. I estimate that he had 70 million true votes.


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