JFK Witness Deaths: How many Accidents, Suicides and Natural Deaths were Homicides?
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JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
In prior JFK witness death analyses, the focus has been on unnatural deaths (homicides, accidents, suicides and unknown causes). This post will examine the likelihood that there were many more homicides than officially reported in the period from 1964-78. The analysis assumes a base case of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses noted in “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.
This post contains a summary of the calculations and graphics for various witness groupings: http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/
Among the 120 suspicious witness deaths in JFK Calc, 77 were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 16 suicides, 25 accidents, 2 unknown). The other 43 deaths were natural (24 heart attacks, 6 cancers, 13 other). But 1964-78 mortality rates for each cause of death buttress the suspicion that many accidents, suicides and natural deaths were homicides.
Some have questioned the assumption that there were more homicides than officially reported. But the probability is still ZERO (E-61) assuming 78 official unnatural deaths. The 1964-78 national average annual homicide rate was 0.000084 (or 8 per 100,000). Among an estimated 1400+ JFK-related witnesses, only two (1400*15*.000084) homicides would normally have been expected in the 15 year period.
Warren Commission apologists claim that the number of witnesses is unknowable. This is false by definition since approximately 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations. Sixty-three (63) are listed in JFK Calc. And the 57 who were not called are obviously very relevant. View the JFK Calc ‘Witnesses’ sheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1
There is a ZERO probability of at least 30 unnatural deaths based on average unweighted U.S. mortality rates. But there were 77 officially ruled unatural deaths. For JFK-witnesses, the probability of just 12 unnatural deaths is ZERO due to the lower JFK-weighted average mortality rate. Using unweighted mortality rates, the conservative probability is E-31 for 85 unnatural deaths. For JFK-weighted mortality rates, the probability is E-73.
Calculation of estimated JFK-related homicides
Approximately 214 total deaths were expected among the 1400 witness universe in the 15 year period from 1964-78. Of this total, 197 were natural (103 heart attacks, 42 cancers and 52 other illnesses) and 17 unnatural (2 homicides, 12 accidents, 3 suicides). Therefore, approximately 25 of the 40 deaths ruled to be accidents and suicides were probably homicides.
Consider just the 120 witnesses in the database. Approximately 18 total deaths (17 natural and one unnatural) would have been expected. Therefore, since there were 120 deaths, of which only 17 were expected to be natural,then the other 103 deaths must be unnatural. So it is not unreasonable to assume that perhaps 95-100 were homicides.
Let’s look at it in another way. Among the 120 suspicious deaths in the 1400+ witness universe, 77 were officially unnatural: 34 homicides, 25 accidents, 16 suicides, 3 unknown. But only 2 homicides, 12 accidents, 3 suicides would have been expected.
We determine a reasonable estimate of 62 actual homicides among the 77 ruled unnatural by simple arithmetic. Subtracting the expected number of accidental deaths and suicides from the 77 ruled unnatural:
Homicides = 62 = 77-12-3. But that is just the official 77 ruled unnatural. What about the 43 ruled natural?
The 43 natural deaths include 24 heart attacks and 19 other causes. However, unlike the documented unnatural deaths included in JFK Calc, we don’t know how many deaths among the 1400+ witnesses were natural heart attacks, cancers and other. But we do know the expected numbers: 103 heart attacks, 42 cancer and 52 other.
Let’s now estimate the number of natural deaths among the 120 suspicious deaths. Applying the .085 ratio (120/1400), there were an estimated 9 heart attacks, 3 cancers and 4 others. Therefore, there were approximately 89 homicides among the 120 suspicious deaths.This agrees with the initial estimate calculated above.
89 Homicides = 120 suspicious deaths -12 accidents -3 suicides -9 heart attacks -3 cancer – 4 other
* Official total unknown, expected deaths given.
Cause... Official Expected
This worksheet in JFK Calc displays mortality rates for all causes of death in the 1964-1978 period (see row 40). The average rates for the period are used in the calculations. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=41
View http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/. The sheer number of unnatural deaths and their suspicious timings constitute proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.
A sensitivity analysis of the probability of homicides from 1964-78 assumes 1,400 to 20,000 witnesses and 35 to 85 homicides. Scroll down to row 50 in this sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=27.
For example, the conservative probability of 35 official homicides in the group of 1,400 witnesses is 1.57E-31 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). The probability is 3.20E-07 (less than 1 in a million) assuming 10,000 witnesses. For 50 homicides and 1400 witnesses, the probability is 1.42E-53 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion!). For 10,000 witnesses, the probability is of course much higher: 1.33E-15 (less than 1 in a 1000 trillion!)
Check out column G for the official cause of death (34 homicides), column J for JFK Calc (50 homicides) and column I for the expanded total (85 homicides). View the list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=55.
The following deaths may have been homicides:
MAC WALLACE Auto crash; asleep at wheel.
DOROTHY KILGALLEN Drug overdose
Thomas E. Davis electrocuted
JAMES CADIGAN FBI document expert; Fall in home before HSCA interview.
WILLIAM SULLIVAN FBI#2 Asst. Dir. Gunshot before HSCA interview.
Hiram Ingram fall, died in 3 days of cancer
MAURICE GATLIN Fell from 6th floor, “heart attack”
Joseph C. Ayres Gunshot
J.A. Milteer Heater explosion
ROSCOE WHITE Industrial fire
WILLIAM WHALEY motor collision
JAMES WORRELL motorcycle crash
Leonard Pullin One-car crash
LEE BOWERS One-car crash. No autopsy.
John D. Sullivan Shot himself while cleaning his gun
MARY SHERMAN Stabbed; Electrocuted
Phil Geraci III (father) Electrocuted
Francis G. Powers * Helicopter crash
HALE BOGGS Plane crash
HUGH WARD Plane crash
Delesseps Morrison Plane crash
JIM REEVES * Plane crash
NANCY CAROLE TYLER Plane crash
Dorothy Hunt Plane crash
DAVID FERRIE Brain Aneurysm (Karate Chop?)
William H. Cooper Gunshot 5 days after auto crash
ROGER CRAIG Gunshot; many attempts on life.
GARY UNDERHILL Gunshot said CIA would kill him
Robert Alan Surrey Gunshot before HSCA testimony
GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT Gunshot (on day of HSCA interview)
WILLIAM PITZER Gunshot (just before retirement)
LISA HOWARD * Drug overdose on vacation.
Darrell W. Garner Drug overdose.
GRANT STOCKDALE * JFK friend; said “people trying to kill me”; fall from building; no note.
William Pawley * Gunshot
BETTY MACDONALD Hanged in Dallas Jail
James Truitt Gunshot to the head
ALBERT BOGARD Carbon monoxide in car
Bill Water Drug overdose (Demorol). No autopsy.
Maurice Baker * Gunshot to the head
TOM HOWARD 48 years old
James Chaney 55
Nicholas Chetta 50
Ralph Yates 39
Billy Lovelady 42
Thomas Karamessines 61
William Harvey 61
DAVID MORALES 53
LOUIS NICHOLAS FBI In charge of JFK investigation: before HSCA interview.
J.M. ENGLISH FBI Head of Forensic sciences; before HSCA interview.
DONALD KAYLOR FBI Fingerprint expert; before HSCA interview.
REGIS KENNEDY FBI Oswald handler; before HSCA interview.
Desmond Fitzgerald Died playing tennis at 57.
BILL CHESHER Predicted he would be killed.
Winston Scott Son claimed CIA said unnatural death.
FLORENCE SMITH Leukemia/ hemorrhage at 45
CLIFF CARTER Pneumonia (“penicillin unavailable”)
FRANK MARTIN Sudden cancer
MANUEL ARTIME Sudden cancer at 45.
Paul Dyer Sudden cancer in 28 days at 33.
JACK RUBY Sudden cancer in 29 days at 56
HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Time: T=15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084
Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)
Example: In the table, the probability P of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001
The probability is of course higher assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals: P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion). Ten (8000*15*0.000084) homicides would normally be expected.
........................................Homicides (n) .........................
N......10...... 20...... 30...... 40...... 50...... 60...... 70...... 80
552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132
1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108
"Who's Who in the JFK Assassination"
1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100
Warren Commission Index
2479 1.10E-03 1.50E-10 1.27E-19 3.78E-30 9.30E-42 3.12E-54 1.99E-67 3.05E-81
3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75
4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65
5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58
6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52
7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47
8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43