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Democratic primary: Sanders Approval ratings matching pre-election and exit polls indicate fraud

08 Jun

Democratic primary: Sanders’ approval ratings match to pre-election and exit polls indicate fraud

Richard Charnin
June 8, 2016

Richard Charnin

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll 
LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
Recommended reading: election fraud-Nina Illingworth

This brief post will provide further evidence that Sanders is leading the total primary vote. It is based on the historical fact that approval ratings are highly correlated to national pre-election polls, exit polls and vote shares.

Clinton is leading by approximately 3 million votes (56-44%). But she has a 42% favorability rating. It is highly anomalous and counter-intuitive when compared to Sanders 49% rating.  Clinton’s  declining ratings are a source of worry for the DNC.

Current polls show that Sanders does better  than Clinton against  Trump.
Sanders vs. Trump  Clinton vs. Trump

The strong correlation of ratings and vote shares indicates Sanders is leading the True Vote by an estimated 1.7 million margin (53.5-46.5%). View Sanders’ favorable/unfavorable ratings.

Clinton favorable/unfavorable ratings – Real Clear Politics

Clinton Poll Date Sample
Favorable
Unfavorable
Spread
RCP Average 5/1 – 5/30 37.4 55.5 -18.1
Quinnipiac 5/24 – 5/30 1561 RV 37 57 -20
The Economist/YouGov* 5/20 – 5/23 2000 RV 43 54 -11
ABC News/Wash Post 5/16 – 5/19 829 RV 41 57 -16
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 5/15 – 5/19 1000 RV 34 54 -20
FOX News 5/14 – 5/17 1021 RV 37 61 -24
CBS News/NY Times 5/13 – 5/17 1109 RV 31 52 -21
Gallup 5/1 – 5/22 10598 A 40 54 -14
PPP (D) 5/6 – 5/9 1222 RV 36 55 -19

In a previous post,  the True Vote was estimated from actual caucus votes, exit polls, estimated manipulation of voter rolls, absentee and provisional ballots. Sanders leads by 51.5-48.5% (800,000 votes). https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/05/28/democratic-primaries-is-clinton-leading-by-3-million-votes/

Sanders exit poll share exceeded his recorded share in 24 of the 26 primaries  exit polled. The probability is 1 in 190,000. The difference between his exit poll share and recorded share exceeded the margin of error in 11 primaries. The probability is 1 in 77 billion. 

Sanders won 13 of 14 caucuses with an average 65.4% vote share and 9 of 36 primaries with a 43.9% average share. The probability of the 21.5% difference occurring by chance is 2.27% (the probability of election fraud is 97.73%).

Prob = 97.73% =normsdist (ZS), where ZS = 2.00 = .21/ sqrt(.135/36 +.109/14)
.135 is the standard deviation for the primaries
.109 is the standard deviation for the caucuses

Current polls show that Sanders does better  than Clinton against  Trump.
Sanders vs. Trump  Clinton vs. Trump

2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

In the 2004 election,  the Bush approval rating trend was highly correlated  (0.87) to his monthly pre-election polls. 

The UNADJUSTED STATE EXIT POLLS tracked closely to the STATE APPROVAL RATINGS. There was a near-perfect 0.99 CORRELATION  between the  polls and approval ratings.

 

 
27 Comments

Posted by on June 8, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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27 responses to “Democratic primary: Sanders Approval ratings matching pre-election and exit polls indicate fraud

  1. cindynsg

    June 8, 2016 at 6:00 am

    I am sickened by the fact that our country is taken over to the point that we no longer have a say as “we the people”. I feel that a petition to the president himself to investigate the fraud will not even give fair results. 😬

     
    • ken

      June 8, 2016 at 12:10 pm

      were he of any use at all,an investigation would have been long underway

       
    • Suzanne Elgin

      June 11, 2016 at 8:23 am

      There have been countless petitions sent to Obama over this fraud and there has been absolutely no response from him. His silence speaks volumes to his collusion.

       
  2. Angelo

    June 8, 2016 at 7:42 am

    Reblogged this on deinvestiture.

     
  3. Bonnie A Wright

    June 8, 2016 at 9:36 am

    What happens now? What were the exit polls showing?

     
  4. Bev

    June 8, 2016 at 9:50 am

    The following will change our future for the better by rescuing our democracy and our kids.

    With some few edits, via: http://www.forums.mlb.com/discussions/Chicago_Cubs/General/ml-cubs/1?tsn=77&tid=443191&redirCnt=1&nav=messages
    The GOP’s new plan for voter suppression

    via: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/05/28/democratic-primaries-is-clinton-leading-by-3-million-votes/
    Democratic Primaries: Is Clinton leading by 3 million votes?
    Richard Charnin

    BREAKING NEWS: Election Attorney Cliff Arnebeck filed a major RICO racketeering lawsuit June 6, 2016 against the voting machine companies whose code that fractionalized votes and so delegate distribution was found by Bev Harris ( http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-1/
    Fraction Magic – Part 1: Votes are being counted as fractions instead of as whole numbers ), and against the media that was complicit in covering up the crime of election theft by adjusting the exit polls to match the fraudulent voting machine counts which was found by Richard Charnin and Beth Clarkson ( http://showmethevotes.org/ ).

    This is a very strong RICO lawsuit involving State and Federal Courts, involving current and past election crimes, that importantly involves all the states, that means Illinois, Cub fans, for the collection of evidence to determine the correct vote counts, and delegate counts.

    Arnebeck says that by the time of the Republican Convention which is before the Democratic Convention, that this RICO racketeering lawsuit will have changed history, and the minds of politicians and the public so that the true winner will be demanded. What a great legacy.

    See the short video:


    http://trustvote.org/

    PROTECTING OUR ELECTIONS
    
Bob Fitrakis, Cliff Arnebeck and Lori Grace
    
………..

    NYT, Ap and other media are reporting that Hillary has “clinched” the nomination. They, having jumped the shark, want to tell you how she did it. Now they can tell a judge how they did it because the media have been RICOed.

    Attorney Cliff Arnebeck says it does not matter what the media says or Hillary Clinton says, the law, this RICO case will prevail. This will save our Democracy.

    Today is a great day. Today is the beginning of getting our democracy back.

    Thanks to all election integrity people who so trust regular people to create a better future for us all, that you fight for a democracy. What a great day.

    snip

    Please spread this important RICO event all around everywhere. Because, I think the media will have a hard time reporting that they have been sued for racketeering. We will have to report widely.


     
    • Don Daniels

      June 10, 2016 at 9:18 am

      Thank you, thank you! After the really illogical June 7th Primaries, I was sinking into dispair about this Grand Theft Nation and once again being forced into holding my nose and voting for the lesser of two evils in yet another rigged election. Had not thought of RICO. Seems like the furor about voting machines always dies down after the election and nothing gets fixed. Ireland tried voting machines and immediately sold them as Scrap. They figured it out pretty quickly, while we continue to have these totally unaccountable machines shoved down our throats. Let’s show how fraudulent this whole election is, and demand a National Do-Over. The people need to take our country back!

       
      • Bev

        June 10, 2016 at 8:06 pm

        I agree Don. And, an update:
        I just found an interview made today of Bob Fitrakis updating information about his and Cliff Arnebeck’s RICO suit and California.


        6-10-16 Nicole Sandler Show – Election Integrity – Fact or Fraud?
        Bob Fitrakis on The Nicole Sandler Show

        TrustVote.org
        FreePress.org
        Nicole Sandler

        54:10 on video, a small segment and a rough transcript below:

        Update: The RICO lawsuit has not yet been filed.

        Originally, attorneys Cliff Arnebeck and Bob Fitrakis were going to file their RICO lawsuit earlier on June 6th in order to get the networks to release the raw data on exit polls for the California primary. The networks cancelled the exit polls instead.

        The RICO suit will be filed. The problem is they ran into a huge problems in California.

        With the donations they are getting, Arnebeck and Fitrakis are beefing up legal staff.

        California, if it were a nation would be the eight largest nation on earth, had some of the most massive irregularities. Fitrakis said he was getting emails constantly from poll workers and election observers saying 25% of people in my precinct were forced to vote provisionally.

        Systematic problems with registration being wrong, people showed up saying they had registered to vote in the Democrat primary, but instead were registered as being in other parties which meant that they could not vote for a presidential candidate.

        Fitrakis said, we did some limited exit polling ourselves and those numbers are being crunched.

        The lawsuits and it looks like there may be two of them: the initial one over getting the exit polls and also a second one getting discovery for criminal activity which is the one that should go first, be filed first.

        But California had massive levels of irregularities and what looks like outright fraud. Most of California should be roped off as a crime scene. it happened deliberately from party loyalists and private corporations.

        California has delayed us somewhat and caused us to beef up legal staff. He says they will be filing next week.
        ………

        Since Cliff Arnebeck is the same lawyer who prevented fraud from occurring in Ohio in 2012 which would have given Romney the Presidency, Obama owes his Presidency to Arnebeck. Since the FBI were involved with Arnebeck’s successful effort to prevent fraud, Carl Rove did not get a heads up about the election not being fixed as the voting machine owners could not call him for fear of FBI wiretaps. So Carl had a meltdown on TV.

        These lawyers have a history of success. I believe they will win. I believe we are on the verge of rescuing our democracy. If you want to donate to their efforts go to TrustVote.org or FreePress.org

         
  5. Kevin Zucker

    June 8, 2016 at 3:13 pm

    If the will of the democratic voters is to elect Trump, then nominating Hillary is clearly the best choice. A person with more negatives than positives should not be running. It’s stupid.

     
  6. Ami Dad

    June 8, 2016 at 7:59 pm

    Hi Richard,
    Please contact me urgently
    jeff_winchell@g.harvard.edu
    or better yet 425 628 0551

    about all of this.
    The importance of this may be getting elevated pronto but I need to ask a few questions first.
    Jeff
    http://LinkedIn.com/in/jwinchell

     
  7. Ron Kovin

    June 9, 2016 at 1:44 am

    Here’s the favorite naysayer, Joshua Holland. Please take apart his weak article:

    http://www.thenation.com/article/reminder-exit-poll-conspiracy-theories-are-totally-baseless

     
    • Richard Charnin

      June 9, 2016 at 3:09 am

      I won’t waste any more time with him. I already responded, as did Tim Robbins and Bob Fitrakis. He has been exposed, debunked, refuted. He just draws himself deeper and deeper into the swamp of irrelevance.

       
    • Bev

      June 10, 2016 at 7:59 pm

      Beth Clarkson just did, doing a fine jobs of defending exit polling and Richard (as Richard, Tim Robbins and Bob Fitrakis in an earlier post):

      showmethevotes.org/2016/06/10/the-theater-is-on-fire/

      THE THEATER IS ON FIRE!

      This post is in response to this article at Nation.com.

       Reminder: Exit-Poll Conspiracy Theories Are Totally Baseless Voters have good reason to lack confidence in our election systems. But claims of widespread fraud aren’t going to fix anything

      Sadly, this author does not understand the math well enough to realize that, despite the protests of the professional pollster interviewed, claims of widespread fraud are not baseless. Exit poll results for the democratic presidential primary provide not one but two solid pieces of evidence in the case for widespread election fraud.

      We have a voting system, as he acknowledges, that gives us no cause for confidence that our voting results are accurately assessed. Despite this, he claims that there is no cause for concern. I disagree as I find multiple independent paths of analyses give evidence that consistently points to massive widespread election fraud across our country.

      My specialty is statistics and I’ve pulled down publicly available data independently, analyzed it myself, and corroborated analyses which points to massive widespread election fraud. Mr. Holland disparages the mathematical work of Richard Charnin*, but I have not found an error in any of the analyses of his that I have repeated.

      In particular, his assessment of the binomial probability regarding the likelihood of the exit poll results, is both accurate and appropriate. I have verified it myself. This binomial analysis was ignored by Mr. Holland in favor of criticizing a different approach that was also used. That approach is also sound, but I have not reproduced those calculations. That both models show results that are consistent with the hypothesis of election fraud is more than doubly damning.

       
  8. Christo

    June 9, 2016 at 8:35 am

    I can’t find the link to the citizens exit poll that was supposed to be conducted on Tues. All I can find is the absentee ballot poll. Can anyone else find the link?

     
  9. Cosmic Communist

    June 9, 2016 at 12:22 pm

    Clinton needs to be deported.
    As a mathematician, I’d say that this evidence is sufficient enough to launch a full blown investigation.

     
  10. calling all toasters

    June 11, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    Donald Trump’s negatives are worse than Hillary’s. Hope you can get to an expose showing that he’s not the real Republican nominee!

     
    • Richard Charnin

      June 18, 2016 at 12:57 pm

      They used my blog calculations and graphs without giving me due credit.

       

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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