## 2016 Election Model: Stein vs. Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson

27 Jul

2016 Preliminary Election Model: Stein vs.Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson

Richard Charnin
July 27, 2016

The 2016 Election Model  indicates that  Green Party candidate Jill Stein can win a fraud-free election, based on a) recent Party-ID surveys and b) primary exit poll vote shares of Independents and Democrats.

The model assumes that Stein is on the ballot in every state. Various scenarios are displayed given  Party-ID assumptions and corresponding vote shares. It is not a forecast.

Statistical  evidence  based on manipulated voter rolls (strip),  impossible exit poll discrepancies (flip) and Wikileaks DNC e-mails suggest that Sanders easily won the True Vote in the primaries. The election was stolen in every way imaginable.

Base Case

The assumption is that Stein will win 45% of Independents, 35% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans.  This results in a 30.6% win  – and 318 electoral votes.

In 2014, the National Party ID split was: 41% Democratic, 35% Republican and 24% Independent.  In  the model, we assume the current 2016 split: 40% Independents, 32% Democratic and 28% Republicans.

Click this link to view the Gallup poll trend in Party affiliation: http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Calculation Methodology

1-2016 state Party-ID: based on the change from 2014 National Party ID to 2016.
Example 2014 Illinois Party ID: from 47D-35R-18I  to 37D-28R-35I
2-State vote shares: apply estimated National shares to the state Party-ID  mix.
3-Electoral Vote summed for each candidate.

BASE CASE

 Party-ID Pct Stein Clinton Trump Johnson Ind 40% 45% 25% 10% 20% Dem 32% 35% 50% 5% 10% Repub 28% 5% 5% 75% 15% Total 100% 30.6% 27.4% 26.6% 15.4% Votes 129,106 39,506 35,375 34,342 19,882 Elect Vote 538 318 11 209 0

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

What if Stein’s share of Democrats and Independents varies from the base case scenario?

The tables show Stein and Trump vote shares and corresponding margins for 25 scenarios: Stein gets 31-39% of Democrats and 40-50% of Independents. The Base Case is in the central cell of each table (Stein has 30.6%).

Stein wins 13 of the 15 scenarios.

 Stein % Dem Stein % 31.0% 33.0% 35.0% 37.0% 39.0% of Ind Stein 50% 31.3% 32.0% 32.6% 33.2% 33.9% 45% 29.3% 30.0% 30.6% 31.2% 31.9% 40% 27.3% 28.0% 28.6% 29.2% 29.9% Trump 50% 25.9% 25.2% 24.6% 24.0% 23.3% 45% 27.9% 27.2% 26.6% 26.0% 25.3% 40% 29.9% 29.2% 28.6% 28.0% 27.3% Stein Margin 50% 5.4% 6.7% 8.0% 9.3% 10.6% 45% 1.4% 2.7% 4.0% 5.3% 6.6% 40% -2.6% -1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 2.6% Stein Vote Margin (000) 50% 7,023 8,676 10,328 11,981 13,634 45% 1,859 3,512 5,164 6,817 8,469 40% -3,305 -1,653 0 1,653 3,305

Jill Stein Polling Sensitivity analysis

Assuming Independents are 40% of the electorate, then for Jill Stein to have

–  5%  (implausible), she needs 12% of Independents and 0% of Democrats and Republicans.

–  10% (conservative), she needs 17% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and Republicans.

–  20% (plausible), she needs 35% of Independents and 10% of Democrats and Republicans.

–  30% (optimistic), she needs 52% of Independents and 15% of Democrats and Republicans.

In the tables, Independents range from 10-40%

A Stein share of IND greater than 100% or less than zero is impossible (na)

 Stein Poll 30% Stein% 10% 20% 30% 40% of Dem + Rep Stein%  of IND 0% na na 100.0% 75.0% 5% na na 88.3% 67.5% 10% na na 76.7% 60.0% 15% na na 65.0% 52.5% Stein Poll 20% Stein% 10% 20% 30% 40% of Dem + Rep Stein % of IND 0% na na 66.7% 50.0% 5% na na 55.0% 42.5% 10% na 60.0% 43.3% 35.0% 15% 65.0% 40.0% 31.7% 27.5% Stein Poll 10% Stein% 10% 20% 30% 40% of Dem + Rep Stein% IND 0% na 50.0% 33.3% 25.0% 5% 55.0% 30.0% 21.7% 17.5% 10% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 15% na na na 2.5% Stein Poll 5% Stein% 10% 20% 30% 40% of Dem + Rep Stein% IND 0% 50.0% 25.0% 16.7% 12.5% 5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10% na na na na 15% na na na na

Posted by on July 27, 2016 in 2016 election

### 43 responses to “2016 Election Model: Stein vs. Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson”

1. July 27, 2016 at 3:58 pm

Love your work, Richard! Thank you for taking the time to put all this “on paper” for us. I have a question – what about the whole “absolute majority” thing? Wouldn’t getting only 30% overall negate the Electoral College and allow the House to select the next president? I’m still learning all this, so forgive my ignorance if this has been addressed above and I’ve misinterpreted. Thanks!

• July 27, 2016 at 9:45 pm

You need 270 electoral votes to win, no matter how many votes you get.
Look at the model. In the base case scenario, Jill wins 318 EV with just 31% in a 4-way race.

• July 31, 2016 at 1:26 pm

I looked, but did not see that the BASE CASE vote numbers would represent millions of votes. Such that, totals would be:

Jill Stein 39,506,000
Clinton 35,375,000
Trump 34,342,000
Johnson 19,882,000
……..

I have been viewing some of Jill Stein’s videos that have been at Lee Camp’s site and elsewhere. Very, Very Impressive person and policies. In the videos (some are in below comments) she says that she will be on the ballot in front of 95% of all voters. Stein also says that as President because she will forgive the enormous, staggering trillion+ dollar student debt which the stagnate wages and too few jobs do not allow to be repaid anyway, she will be the favorite of 41,000,000 voters who are over-indebted with student loans. She will bail out students not banks. So, Richard’s numbers look very close to her number of votes.

Now, if all the lawsuits result in fairer elections, she has a chance. Or, because Jill Stein does address election fraud, she is in the perfect position to try to do something to correct that situation. Perhaps, she will need some pre-election affidavits of voters’ intent from these over-indebted students to show her wins before the election, just like Hillary did before the end of the primaries with a secret super delegate vote before super delegates actually were supposed to vote.

And, what do you make of more stories out of the MSM on election fraud after the primaries, caucuses and conventions? Amazing timing, isn’t it. Like it is planned.

I had read that Carl Rove has been advising Clinton. Maybe those emails show that also. But, my guess is that because the Republican primaries were not rigged by machine which unadjusted exit polling confirms, I can argue that the establishment candidate of Trump was promoted via early, enormous media coverage that no one else had, and so in that way, the GOP race WAS RIGGED. Just not by suppression and voting, tabulating machines.

And, Trump said many times that if he did not win, then that would be proof that the GOP primaries were rigged, and his supporters would not accept that result.

Doesn’t that put Trump in the perfect position of going after Hillary over her stealing the Democratic primaries? Won’t the release of more of Hillary’s emails prove that?

What if Carl Rove is also advising Donald Trump, against his advise to Hillary Clinton about how to rig the primary election and perhaps the general election. What a set up. Wouldn’t that surprise Hillary, to be Trumped by Rove.

As someone who was a Democrat when I voted for Bernie, I now consider myself an Independent. Have new polls shown a bigger loss for Democrats?

I also noticed an article where Democratic Senator Harry Reid of Nevada was publicly saying that Bernie Sanders did not get fair treatment during the primary. Could be some of the Democrats are worried about having been anti-democracy, when there is a general election coming up, rigged and not rigged for whom exactly?

I so worry when Trump says he will gut environmental, climate change regulations and laws in favor of more drilling and fracking, so that climate instability gets worse even faster and faster. Very corporate. Very fascist.

I so worry that Clinton who hired real Nazis for a coup in Ukraine to try to control and surround Russia, might even try a World War III as neocons want to control the world. So that both choices are horrible, Clinton will also destroy the world in a different way from Trump’s destroying the world. Very corporate. Very fascist.

More Democracy. Less Fascism. Support all the lawsuits against election fraud. We must recover our Democracy.

• July 31, 2016 at 2:24 pm

Forgot to mention….I read (pardon my not providing a link, which I will do if I find the article again) that all those progressive Democrats who were scrubbed off registration rolls and whose party ID was changed to other parties so that they could not vote, or easily vote for Bernie Sanders, are now being added back to the Democratic Registration Rolls. Also perhaps, the Democrats will pump up those Registration Rolls with Independents to show a larger number of Democrats, to help the machines show the winning results they want.

SHAME. SHAME. SHAME.

• August 6, 2016 at 2:32 pm

The Green Party is having its Convention Today, Saturday, August 6th from 10:00 A.M. to 5:00 P.M. ET in Houston, Texas.

Hopefully, they will address election rigging today like Donald Trump, in addition to their other important issues, like environment, human rights, no World War 3 with Russia, health care, and student loan forgiveness.
………

Oh, and has any President ever had to say the following because of the wide spread perception by the American people, not just Trump?

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/obama-slams-trumps-conspiracy-theory-saying-the-election-is-rigged-is-ridiculous/

Obama slams Trump’s ‘conspiracy theory’: Saying the election is rigged is ‘ridiculous’
Arturo Garcia
04 Aug 2016

President Barack Obama rebuked Donald Trump on Thursday for complaining that the election could be “rigged” against him.

“Of course the elections will not be rigged. What does that mean?” Obama said during a press conference. “The federal government doesn’t run the election process. States and cities and communities all across the country, they’re the ones who set up the voting systems and the voting booths. If Mr. Trump is suggesting that there is a conspiracy theory that is being propagated across the country — including in places like Texas, where typically it’s not Democrats who are in charge of voting booths — that’s ridiculous. That doesn’t make any sense, and I don’t think anybody would take that seriously.”

snip

“But I’ve never heard of somebody complaining about being cheated before the game was over, or before the score’s even tallied.”

The remarks came a day after Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson called for voting systems to be designated as “critical infrastructure” in order to guard against possible cyber attacks during the November election.
………..

2. July 27, 2016 at 4:21 pm

Don’t be silly. 45% of Independent voters are never going to vote for Jill Stein, or any other 3rd party candidate. That’s because they believe that under the current system, any vote that isn’t for either a Demo or a Repub is a “wasted vote.” And 99 times out of 100, they’re right.

First fix the system so that 3rd parties have a chance, and then people will start to vote for 3rd parties in all seriousness. Right now, any vote for a 3rd party is either a protest vote, or a vote for “None of the Above.”

• July 27, 2016 at 5:15 pm

Yeah. That’s why she only gets 45%. If ALL independents pay deeper attention to what’s happening the number she gets would be much higher. Just like if ALL democrats and republicans pay deeper attention to what goes on, there would be much less democrats and republicans.

• July 30, 2016 at 10:47 pm

Did you hear of the #DemExit after the dem rigged the elections we choose not to be Dems anymore so their number will be dropping drastically by November

• July 27, 2016 at 6:55 pm

How can we fix the system? It’s a mess.

• July 28, 2016 at 2:15 pm

There needs to be as much media coverage for third-party candidates as there is for Democrats and Republicans. Third-party candidates need to be permitted to participate in debates. The news media is how the people get their education and information regarding the candidates, so they need to be a bit more generous and democratic with regard to publicizing third-party and independent candidates.

• July 30, 2016 at 10:48 pm

Vote green and take our contry back from the Oligarchy

• July 28, 2016 at 8:48 pm

No one will “fix it” as long a we vote for the duopoly.

• July 30, 2016 at 10:49 pm

That is why voting 3rd party is the key of taking our country back from the 1%

• July 30, 2016 at 10:45 pm

Well then I guess millions of US that have done the #DemExit and are voting green have not even been counted in their stats. So raise Jills numbers up because we reject the 2 parties right now and it will be a 3rd party that wins come November no stopping it. #GreenIsTheNewBlue get over it.

• August 11, 2016 at 8:11 am

Then maybe you should check with us Bernie supporters and spoiler alert many of us are taking the pledge. Which is ill vote for jill if you will pledge to also. What it does is let you know how many there is who would vote for her to see if there are enough votes there to get her elected. Everyone who pledges to vote for asks or recommends another 2 who would vote for her then they ask another to go to these sites MoveOn.org; Change.org; RootsAction.org; iPetitions.com These are where you sign up and they keep track of the total and it adds up fast so you would know way before the election if you are just throwing away your vote but if there is enough you are pledged to vote for her.

• August 15, 2016 at 1:01 am

I am a little skeptical of MoveOn,org because in 2004 election cycle, financier George Soros gave US\$1.46 million to MoveOn.org Voter Fund. He is the diebold guy, We can’t seem to trust anyone these days! SO…. Could the petitions now be used as a list of anti-Hillary voters (purged again!) to work against Jill, just like they did to Bernie?
w

• August 15, 2016 at 2:16 am

Soros the Diebold guy? Where is your info on that?

• August 12, 2016 at 8:51 pm

It’s too late to “fix the system” (as could be easily done with the institution of Ranked-choice Voting (aka “instant runoff”). However, the same effect can be had with this brilliant invention, without electoral reform; the voter would know BEFORE the vote that their preferred candidate will win. It’s being done for Jill Stein: http://jdrachel.com/2016/07/21/the-ill-vote-for-jill-if-you-will-pledge-campaign/
Here’s how it works, in a nutshell: go to any of the main petition websites (listed for you on page 2 of the link), then get 2 people you know and trust to take the pledge as well. If the goal of 50 million pledges is met, JILL WINS! If not, the “deal” is off, and you can do just what you’ve been doing since the JFK/Nixon election: hold your nose and vote AGAINST the duopoly candidate you fear and loathe most.

• August 12, 2016 at 8:58 pm

Here’s a game changer that takes the risk and fear out of voting for a “third party,” enabling a voter to KNOW that their choice would be the winner BEFORE they vote: http://jdrachel.com/2016/07/21/the-ill-vote-for-jill-if-you-will-pledge-campaign/

Here’s how it works, in a nutshell: go to any of the main petition websites (listed for you on page 2 of the link), then get 2 people you know and trust to take the pledge as well. If the goal of 50 million pledges is met, JILL WINS! If not, the “deal” is off, and you can do just what you’ve been doing since the JFK/Nixon election: hold your nose and vote AGAINST the duopoly candidate you fear and loathe most.

3. July 27, 2016 at 4:36 pm

Times the are a changin’, Just Me. A tidal wave of young voters all turned off to the democratic party and independents disgusted with the Dem and Repub choices makes it the perfect breeding ground for the up and coming Green Party. Step aside with your history lesson, it no longer applies.

4. July 27, 2016 at 6:39 pm

If Bernie had gone independent under the green party, this had a high probability. But as it stands now, the above scenario is extremely unlikely as few know Jill Stein. But, I can see both Jill and Gary getting around 10% of the vote each, which is a good start and enough to perhaps have then on the presidential debates and lots more media coverage. Jill especially does have a strong vision, just lacking political experience, although, look at Trump. Thankfully we have social media, which those under 35 tend to use more than corporate-own TV/newspapers. The slow collapse of the two party system is a good thing, A useful model. Thankyou.

• July 30, 2016 at 10:53 pm

You have not paid attention have you since they rigged the election against Bernie and then assaulted his delegates verbally and physically at the covention millions of Us have done the #DemExit and are putting our support behind Jill. We need to save this planet and satop wars along with many other major issues facing the world . We warned the DNC and now they must feel the Bern. #GreenIsTheNewBlue

5. July 28, 2016 at 6:51 am

Please watch these before making a decision!

• July 29, 2016 at 1:06 am

Jill gave another great interview last year on TYT.
http://bit.ly/jill-stein-interview

• August 2, 2016 at 8:10 pm

What date was Jill’s talk?

6. July 28, 2016 at 10:11 am

I trust your work and this is encouraging. The thought did pop into my head not sure if it helps but does any of the stats from the 2000 election with Nader in the mix have any relevance to this kind of number crunching.

• July 28, 2016 at 4:00 pm

No, the analysis is based on estimated 2016 Party_ID shares for each state and vote shares from primary exit polls.

• July 30, 2016 at 10:42 pm

Yes we need to promote Jill, watch the numbers and let people know if the numbers are too low, they can vote for Hillary. But, support, Jill until November to see if she is a viable candidate. I don’t think Trump or Hillary are worth anything and they are both up to their necks in manipulation and scandals. But, if Jill does not have the numbers I will roll my dice with Hillary. Although I would do it very begrudgingly.

• August 22, 2016 at 9:04 am

Trump Scandals? Where?

• August 22, 2016 at 8:39 pm

Am voting for Jill Stein am trying to get the people who are on the rail or keep saying its a throw away vote to consider this go to this site http://jdrachel.com/2016/07/21/the-ill-vote-for-jill-if-you-will-pledge-campaign Basically its were you pledge to vote for jill if she reaches a certain number by 20 or a few more days before election. plus you also get 2 more people to pledge and they each get 2 more etc etc. You are sent to a couple sites you pick which one and pledge to vote, they keep count and at 20 days before the election they give out the numbers who pledge to vote for her. Hey its even a good idea just in case its a close election and the numbers don’t add up, for we already know how many votes we’d have. You have nothing to loose and a lot to gain. Please share.

7. July 29, 2016 at 2:31 pm

So for the general election… who is most likely to tamper with the machines and votes, the democrat or the republican? Or both?

8. July 30, 2016 at 12:32 pm

Ren – that’s the million dollar question! Two of the three companies that make the machines donate to the Clinton Foundation. Seen the documentary titled Clinton Cash? What do you predict? Black Box Voting (also has a youtube documentary) proved that devious people can change votes on these machines with no paper trail or one that’s very hard to find! We need all and only paper-pen balloting!!

9. July 30, 2016 at 3:47 pm

We know that she is planning to only be a write in for a few states. She is still getting on some ballots w/signatures, then some by legal challenge and the last few she will be a write in and can file consent. So what do you see happening with that model. I know Indiana is one of those write in states that she is not likely to win…. for example.

• July 30, 2016 at 4:00 pm

I will just let the model stand as is. No conjecture on write-ins.
She does not have to be on the ballot in states in which she has a ZERO chance of winning.

10. July 30, 2016 at 5:37 pm

Reblogged this on carlantoine and commented:
#JillStein CAN WIN !
#BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias #DemExit #GreenParty

• July 30, 2016 at 10:55 pm

11. July 31, 2016 at 1:41 pm

Yes! Our first female President who will usher in a People’s Choice Administration and new congress by 2018!!!

12. July 31, 2016 at 11:12 pm

“It could happen” — Judy Tunuta. That’s the extent of this model. It basically says that it’s possible for Stein or Clinton to win a 4-way race as long as one of them wins in all the more liberal states including Florida. The argument for Stein is that the conservative vote gets split by Trump, Clinton, and Johnson, leaving all the liberals for Stein and that about 30% of Americans vote for the most liberal candidate. The thing that would be most apparent from the model is that if Clinton were not in the race, Stein could win and if the Democrats had nominated Bernie, he would win. The danger is that since the margins between Stein and Clinton are close across the board, either Stein or Hillary could become a spoiler for the other (IMAO the most likely scenario), Trump would win.

13. August 13, 2016 at 10:58 pm

COMPLETELY unrealistic., Stein won’t get 7%. This whole piece is fantasy.

14. August 15, 2016 at 12:30 am

“The assumption is that Stein will win 45% of Independents, 35% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans. This results in a 30.6% win – and 318 electoral votes.”

first off – I’m going on the assumption that what you mean is that 45% of independents will vote for her, and so on; not that 45% of her support comes from independents.

if i have that wrong, my bad. now, to my main point: on what planet is it remotely realistic (even with handicapping against establishment shenanigans and fraud and being on the ballot in all states) that she would get those percentages? most people it seems (based on past elections, even outside of the presidency) are allergic to voting third party – entirely brainwashed in the idea that a third party vote is a “wasted vote” or a “vote for the greater evil candidate”. in recent memory the best third party candidate in terms of vote totals was ross perot, and didnt he get only like 13% of the vote?

now, if you were to replace jill with bernie sanders running as an independent (after running against hillary as a democrat) these percentages seem very reasonable and if not a bit under what is possible. because he has the media coverage, he’s a name at home for many people now, people know about him and what he stands for – even people who barely pay any attention to politics at all. but jill is unknown to many people, and those who have heard of her have mainly been brainwashed to only vote blue or red, and the rest ends up being a tiny percentage. id be personally thrilled if she got 10% of the vote. even under nader, one of the best results for the greens so far, the vote percentage was in the single digits. i just don’t see this being possible between now and november, even after handicapping against establishment rules and fraud.

I’m more interested in what gary johnson is going to do to this election (in addition to stein). i have a feeling that theres a slight chance that if the race between hillary and trump is close, and if johnson wins a state electoral college wise and prevents either candidate from making it to 270, the election could theoretically be decided in the house if one candidate has more electoral college votes and the other has more popular votes. there are many “stop trump” republicans defecting to johnsons campaign out of disgust, so who knows. anythings possible this election! anyways, if it makes it to the house, they could theoretically go against voters and choose whoever they wish – this being a GOP ran house, they might screw their base to save their party by choosing johnson over trump since his economic platform is exactly what the GOP establishment wants, and he comes without the outright bigotry and national embarrassment that trump gives off.

• August 15, 2016 at 12:31 am

im not sure how to edit, but i just wanted to add that i plan on voting for jill in november, regardless of how viable she is in terms of winning. vote with your conscience. the election isn’t a team sport.

• August 15, 2016 at 2:37 am

Thanks for the comment. The landscape changed in 2016 with Bernie running. He won Independents by a large margin. Clinton and Trump have 35% approval. I suspect that many Bernie supporters will move to Jill. Bernie or Bust.

This is just an illustration of what it would take for Jill to win. It’s useful information based on Gallup party preference with the assumption that Jill would mirror Bernie. This election is not like anything we have seen before. In 2000, Nader could not gain Democratic votes because Gore was a good candidate. But Hillary is running. It’s a whole different ballgame.

The purpose of the model is not to predict, but to play what-if. The sensitivity analysis displays the effects for alternative vote shares and party-ID assumptions.

I do not believe the polls which show Stein at 4% and Johnson at 8%. The MSM does not want Jill in the debates.

You agree that the numbers are reasonable if Bernie was running as an independent. Jill is much closer to Bernie than Clinton or Trump, so I assume she would get 40-45% of the Independent vote – and also pick up Democrats.

• October 20, 2016 at 11:24 pm

what are your thoughts about the polling companies and media leaving 18-34 year olds out of it? seems pretty sketchy, no?

Richard Charnin's Blog

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