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The Primaries: Hillary wins the lottery

12 May

Richard Charnin
May 12, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share has exceeded his recorded vote share by greater than the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries: AL AZ GA MA NY OH MS SC TX WI WV. The probability P that at least 11 exit polls would exceed the MoE is calculated using the Binomial distribution.

P = 1 in 76.8 BILLION = 1-BINOMDIST(10,26,0.025,true)

Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on? This is an updated analysis of estimated probabilities of fraud in the Democratic primaries. View the 2016 Democratic primaries spreadsheet.

The Margin of Error(MoE) is based on the number of respondents and  the vote shares:
MoE =1.3*1.96*sqrt (EP*(1-EP)/N),   where EP is the 2-party exit poll share, N is the number of respondents, 1.3 is the exit poll cluster factor adjustment. There is a 95% probability that the exit poll will fall within the MoE.

The probability is based on the difference  between the exit poll share (EP) and recorded share (RS) less the MoE. If  the difference is equal to the MoE, there is a 97.5% probability of fraud.The probability is calculated using the Normal distribution
P = normdist (EP, RS, MoE/1.96,true).

West Virginia

The results strongly suggest election fraud.  There were 734 respondents in the unadjusted exit poll and 763 in the adjusted final (forced to match the recorded vote). How could Sanders vote share decline by 6% with just 29 additional respondents? How could Other candidates vote share change by 7.5%?

Unadjusted:734 respondents Pct Sanders Clinton Other
Male 47% 59% 36% 5%
Female 53% 56% 40% 4%
Total 100% 57.4% 38.1% 4.5%
2-party  100% 60.1% 39.9%
Adjusted: 763 Forced to match recorded vote
Male 47% 53% 35% 12%
Female 53% 50% 38% 12%
Total 100% 51.4% 36.6% 12.0%
2-party  100% 58.4% 41.6%

This is how the exit pollsters forced a match to the IN recorded vote.

Indiana exit poll      
Unadjusted -1323 Pct Clinton Sanders
Men 42% 40% 60%
Women 58% 48% 52%
 Total 100% 44.64% 55.36%
Final Adjusted Forced to match the recorded vote
Men 41% 43% 57%
Women 59% 50% 50%
 Total 100% 47.13% 52.87%

Summary Table

Exit poll margin of error, Sanders recorded vote share, Sanders exit poll,  difference between the exit poll and recorded vote and the estimated probability of fraud. Primaries in which the exit poll exceeded the recorded vote by at least the margin of error (at least 97.5% probability of fraud) are shown in bold.
Primary MoE Vote Exit Poll Exit -Vote Fraud Prob
AL 3.9% 19.8% 25.9% 6.1% 99.9%
AR 4.0% 31.0% 33.3% 2.3% 87.3%
AZ (Yavapai) 3.9% 40.9% 63.0% 22.1% 100.0%
CT 3.6% 45.6% 47.2% 1.7% 81.3%
FL 3.0% 34.1% 36.0% 2.0% 90.2%
GA 3.4% 28.3% 33.8% 5.5% 99.9%
IL 3.5% 49.1% 51.2% 2.0% 87.5%
IN 3.5% 52.8% 55.4% 2.6% 92.9%
MA 3.5% 49.3% 53.3% 4.0% 98.7%
MD 4.1% 33.3% 33.4% 0.1% 52.7%
MI 3.3% 50.8% 53.2% 2.4% 92.2%
MO 4.4% 49.9% 51.9% 2.0% 81.0%
MS 3.4% 16.6% 21.3% 4.7% 99.7%
NC 3.0% 42.8% 43.7% 0.9% 72.3%
NH 2.6% 61.4% 60.4% -1.0% 22.7%
NY 3.5% 42.1% 48.0% 5.9% 100.0%
OH 3.1% 43.1% 48.1% 5.0% 99.9%
OK 4.5% 55.5% 50.9% -4.6% 2.1%
PA 3.5% 43.6% 45.1% 1.5% 80.6%
SC 3.1% 26.1% 31.3% 5.2% 100.0%
TN 4.0% 32.9% 35.5% 2.6% 90.0%
TX 3.5% 33.7% 37.9% 4.2% 99.1%
VA 3.3% 35.4% 37.4% 2.0% 88.4%
VT 2.3% 86.3% 86.5% 0.2% 55.5%
WI 3.0% 56.7% 63.6% 6.9% 100.0%
WV 4.7% 51.4% 57.4% 6.0% 99.4%
 
Average 3.52% 42.8% 46.3% 3.6% 97.6%
 Inline image
 Probability that at least n of 26 exit polls would exceed the margin of error
n; 1 in
1 3
2 7
3 38
4 266
5 2,415
6 27,384
7 378,644
8 6,280,036
9 123,437,142
10 2,850,178,375
11 76,829,636,415
 
31 Comments

Posted by on May 12, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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31 responses to “The Primaries: Hillary wins the lottery

  1. Cindy

    May 12, 2016 at 12:31 pm

    Hi Richard,

    Amazing stat but I have an important question…

    I need to go back and re-read all your 2016 posts which I plan to do soon… but for now, why are you not including Massachusetts (and possibly others) as one of the states where “Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share has exceeded his recorded vote share by greater than the margin of error?”

    In referring to your analysis of MA (linked below), it looks like this was true..

    You said:

    The unadjusted exit poll was 52.3 Bernie, 45.7% HRC.

    The adjusted exit poll was 50.3 HRC, 48.7% Bernie, a “near-exact match to the 1.4% RECORDED vote margin.”

    So Bernie went down 3.6% and HRC went up 4.6%… and you stated the margin of error was: 3.55%… isn’t this difference outside the margin of error?

    I truly need to understand this better. I do understand completely your logic about not being able to make up the difference in the number of respondents between the unadjusted at 8:01pm and the final number at the time of the adjusted poll….. but shouldn’t MA be included in the states where the recorded vote doesn’t match unadjusted exit poll within the margin of error?

    What am I missing?

    https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/03/02/ma-primary-unadjusted-exit-poll-indicates-bernie-won/

     
    • Richard Charnin

      May 12, 2016 at 7:04 pm

      It’s fixed. MA is in. Thanks for noticing. I mistakenly had AR in.

       
  2. Angelo

    May 12, 2016 at 12:33 pm

    Reblogged this on deinvestiture.

     
  3. kifra101

    May 13, 2016 at 8:36 am

    Richard, please explain this calculation: P = 1 – poisson (10,0.025*26,true)

    I am arguing with an idiot on Reddit who is claiming that this does not make any sense from a probability standpoint.

    Thanks!
    Kif

     
  4. kifra101

    May 13, 2016 at 8:55 am

    Richard, please explain this: P = 1 – poisson (10,0.025*26,true)

    I am arguing with an idiot on reddit and could use some help explaining this.

    Thanks,
    Kif

     
    • Richard Charnin

      May 13, 2016 at 7:04 pm

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution

      P= probability of AT LEAST 11 exit polls would EXCEED the margin of error for ONE CANDIDATE (in this case Sanders).
      P= 1- probability that 10 OR FEWER exit polls would EXCEED the MoE .
      It is the ACTUAL (11) vs. EXPECTED (0.65 =.025*26).

       
      • Greg Kilcup

        May 14, 2016 at 12:33 am

        Actually you should be using a binomial here for 26 trials with two possible outcomes.
        This yields a probability of one in 77 billion.
        Using a Poisson would also imply a nonzero probability for finding more than 26 rare
        events in one “trial” (consisting of 26 state elections), which ought to seem strange.

         
      • Mike Elias (@harmonylion1)

        May 17, 2016 at 4:09 am

        Richard,

        I too am arguing with an idiot on reddit, and here are some common objections they make:

        – “Exit polls are not statistically valid becuase they oversample people who want to share how they voted.”

        – “Exit polls do not consider mail or affidavit voting.”

        What are the most sensible answers to these?

        Thanks for the work you’re doing.

         
      • Richard Charnin

        May 17, 2016 at 10:24 am

        This is how I would respond to those who still demand “proof” that our elections are fraudulent even after you have shown them the EVIDENCE.

        Tell the naysayers that……………. due to the overwhelming MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITY of fraud based on UNADJUSTED, PRISTINE EXIT POLLS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE, CUMULATIVE VOTE SHARES and other TRUE VOTE MODELS, we must conclude that the elections were fraudulent since there is ZERO EVIDENCE to prove that the machines counted the votes correctly.

        To prove that the exit polls were wrong and the recorded vote counts were accurate, we must have DOCUMENTED proof of a complete BALLOT RECOUNT in full view of THREE observers, assuming the ballots are available. We must also view the PROGRAMMING SOFTWARE used to count the votes. And of course, the exit pollsters must reveal the PRECINCTS polled and full respondent data. IN OTHER WORDS, WE DEMAND FULL TRANSPARENCY OF ALL EXIT POLL PRECINCTS: RECORDED VOTES VS. ACTUAL EXIT POLL RESPONSES.

        Since we cannot view the ballots (which do not exist for touchscreen DREs) or the PROPRIETARY VOTING MACHINE and CENTRAL TABULATOR machine code, we must conclude that the elections were fraudulent.

        THE ONUS IS ON THE NAYSAYER TO PROVE THAT THE VOTE COUNT WAS ACCURATE.

        USE THIS APPROACH TO SHAME Cenk Uyger of The Young Turks, Rachel Maddow, Nate Silver and all the other MEDIA PRESSTITUTES WHO DARE NOT MENTION THE THIRD RAIL OF AMERICAN POLITICS-ELECTION FRAUD..

        https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/01/31/historical-overview-of-election-fraud-analysis/

        https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/why-do-all-election-forecasters-political-scientists-academics-and-media-pundits-avoid-the-systemic-fraud-factor/

         
  5. Ned

    May 13, 2016 at 4:43 pm

    What about early/absentee voting – how does that factor in? Thanks. (I am assuming the exit poll data do not include those votes, i.e. only include votes cast on election day, whereas recorded totals include both?)

     
  6. Valerie Cullins

    May 13, 2016 at 7:05 pm

    What would the percentage probability of cheating Be to be considered fraud? I’m looking specifically at Maryland.

     
  7. Bev

    May 13, 2016 at 11:40 pm

    A start. More states step up.
    http://touch.baltimoresun.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-87173665/

    Baltimore’s election results decertified, state begins precinct-level review of irregularities
    Luke Broadwater, The Baltimore Sun Recent Columns
    Updated May 12, 2016

    State election officials ordered the results of Baltimore’s primary election decertified Thursday and launched a precinct-level review of irregularities.

    State election administrator Linda H. Lamone said she became concerned when city officials — who on Monday certified their primary election results — later reported they had found 80 provisional ballots that had never been analyzed.

    Lamone said the state also is concerned about an unusually high discrepancy between the number of voters who checked in at polling places and the number of ballots cast. The number of ballots cast was higher than the number of check-ins, she said.

    “Baltimore City was not able to investigate and resolve these issues to our satisfaction,” Lamone said. “We are doing a precinct-level review. We are doing this in fairness to the candidates and the voters.”

    The investigation is expected to stretch into next week. Lamone said state officials are working to determine the number of ballots that might be in question and the precincts where the discrepancies occurred.

    She declined to discuss possible outcomes of the probe.

    snip

    For more than a week, a group of activists has been raising concerns about the integrity of the April 26 primary in Baltimore. Among the issues: Eight data files went missing for about a day after the election, and some polling precincts opened late. And 34 released felons — eligible to vote under a new law —received a Board of Elections letter before the primary erroneously telling them they might not be able to vote.

    An activist group, which calls itself VOICE, held a news conference Thursday to call for the city’s elections director, Armstead Jones Sr., to be held accountable.

     
    • Bev

      May 13, 2016 at 11:48 pm

      Baltimore is a city of course. But, whole states need to decertify and redo their primaries with hand counted paper ballots to get rid of those evidence missing/hiding e-voting, e-scanning machines. The hand counting needs to occur in precinct on election night, not taken off to a central location to be counted which involves problems with chain of custody. Then results need to be publicly posted on the wall at the precinct so that e-tabulating machines don’t adjust numbers at the state level.

      More please.

       
      • Cindy

        May 14, 2016 at 10:35 pm

        100% agree Bev! And… can we please just eliminate ALL voting machines and other computers from the voting process… far too easy to rig.

        Initially, I was happy to watch a video of Representative Hank Johnson stating, “…if you don’t think these voting machines can be manipulated to produce the results that folks want, then you are in la la land…” However, I was disappointed to hear him state he was introducing the “The Vote Act” to appropriate money from the “Help America Vote Act” to buy NEW supposedly “more secure” voting machines as a solution.

        In my opinion, the only way to eliminate this problem is to eliminate electronic voting completely… to vote on paper and hand count that vote (not run it through machines)… and have in place multiple levels of checks and balances to that process with witnesses from all sides involved. I do not need to know the results immediately if it means we get TRUE results. And yes, I know those who are motivated would figure out some way to cheat even with this type of system but I don’t think they could to the degree that is currently happening!

        Representative Hank Johnson’s comments can be found in one of the embedded videos here:

        http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/35846-members-of-congress-call-for-end-to-mass-voter-suppression-and-insecure-elections

         
      • Cindy

        May 14, 2016 at 10:43 pm

        I also wanted to say that anyone who thinks the New York election shouldn’t be DEcertified should watch the public comment before the New York Board of Elections two days before they did so:

        Note that these citizens with legitimate issues, some of whom had spent HOURS/DAYS/WEEKS trying to vote, were treated with derision during these comments by the NY BOE. Also, note how the second speaker who brings up the voter machine fraud issue is interrupted… and then how another speaker who later tries to address this issue is almost prevented from even speaking! A policeman stands right at the podium, usually with this arm on the podium where citizens are speaking! Every American needs to see this video.

        And yes…. Lee Camp NAILED IT on that one Bev… everyone should take the time to see that video as well!

         
  8. radiobilingueconleonardo

    May 14, 2016 at 8:39 am

    Reblogged this on Radio Bilingue con Leonardo and commented:
    This is exceptional information and does validate the fact that there IS fraud going on. Do Clinton followers REALLY want their candidate to win by these means? Oh wait, I just remembered, In Iowa I think it was one of her attorneys to do “it takes” to win. It’s always easier to say: “Oops! Sorry. I didn’t realize.”

    These neo-democrats would stand by while a fellow Democrat is being bashed by his own party.

     
  9. Mitchell Feldman

    May 14, 2016 at 10:52 am

    What effect does early voting have on these stats; they are more likely Clinton voters and not counted in exit polling. I absolutely agree that there was team Clinton initiated cheating but I think that early voting corrupts some of your numbers. Please show me to be wrong.

     
  10. Bev

    May 14, 2016 at 7:20 pm

    For New York:
    via:
    Naked Capitalism linked to a wonderful Lee Camp video interview with New York Lawyer Jonathan Clarke who is suing the NY Board of Elections to count the Affidavit/Provisional Ballots, and he is Calling for Volunteers to help in New York city and New York state. Check it out as the appropriate time to check the affidavit/provisional ballots is after certification, so don’t let that stop you.

    – First we have to find everybody who voted with the affidavit process–who they are, and if they’ve been rejected and taking each and every single one of those and bringing them to state court, the only remedy we have available now.

    – Find out if your ballot was counted. You will have to go down to Board of Elections which will make this information available said Michael Ryan. This should be done in NY city and NY state.

    – Go to Election Justice USA. Contact Election Justice USA even if you did not vote with an affidavit because this is a big effort and will need volunteers whether you are a Bernie supporter and/or a supporter of a Democracy and Voting Rights.
    ….

    For California:
    Lee Camp also says that Bernie voters are being scrubbed from the California rolls now. Is the Democratic party still using the faulty on purpose “free” Microsoft app to do what it was found to do from the beginning, scrub off young and newly registered independent voters–Bernie voters? Get rid of that Microsoft app now. Undo the scrubbing.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/05/links-51416.html
    video:
    http://yt2fb.com/ny-lawyer-brings-court-case-over-primary-chaos-jon/

    NY Lawyer Brings Court Case Over Primary Chaos RT (martha r)
    …….

    Another important question:

    Lee Camp [Redacted] Verified account @LeeCamp

    The Elections Board was paid MILLIONS before the NY Primary??, Hillary’s new money laundering, and much more……

    video:
    http://yt2fb.com/elections-board-paid-millions-before-ny-primary-hi/

     
  11. Bev

    May 15, 2016 at 12:07 pm

    Hi Cindy, So glad you are here adding so much information. I did not watch that video though, because your summary was so good, I knew it would be frustrating. However, so much is now frustrating, and ways to overcome and problem solve are so important.

    Bernie’s lawyers need to problem solve this for every state, now:

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/05/nevada-democrats-defend-exclusion-of-bernie-convention-delegates-that-led-to-explosion-of-anger/

    Nevada Democrats defend exclusion of Bernie convention delegates that led to explosion of anger
    Tom Boggioni

    Nevada’s Democratic State Committee defended excluding 58 Bernie Sanders’ delegates at their convention Saturday night, saying they failed to register properly as Democrats before the final caucus.

    At the contentious convention, held in the Paris hotel in Las Vegas, scuffles broke out as Sanders’ supporters claimed that the state party subverted the will of the voters by awarding more pledged delegates to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

    According to the Las Vegas Sun, Clinton took 20 of the 35 pledged delegates Nevada will send to the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia this summer.

    snip

    According to the party:

    There were 64 Sanders Delegates and Alternates whose validity was challenged because of the following issues:

    – They were not registered Democratic voters in Nevada By May 1, 2016.
    – Their information — such as address, date of birth and name — could not be found and they did not respond to requests from the party and campaigns to correct it.

    ……

    [10] Election Fraud, Tainted Water & More – Mike Papantonio Talks with Lee Camp
    Redacted Tonight

    Watch the video, it is better than my notes:
    Notes:
    – It would take an Attorney General to initiate a RICO case against voter suppression and #ExitPollGate voting machine fraud by the political parties

    – All the voter suppression of progressive Bernie voters and use of evidence free voting machines by Hillary and the DNC will work against Hillary and the DNC in the general election as the GOP have more experience at it while the DNC has kept quite about it all these years.

    – If the GOP dumps Trump, and Trump decides to run as an independent, that gives Bernie the opportunity to also run as an independent. In a four way match, he will have many more votes than anyone else. It will be harder to hide. He wins.

    – If Bernie and his supporters cannot overcome all the fraud by the political parties and Hillary and the GOP candidate, the movement must persist beyond this election.
    ……….

    My note: I do not know enough about tactics and strategy to guess why Bernie has not made a bigger issue of voter suppression and #ExitPollGate now, publicly versus later at the convention with leverage to handle privately or go full on public with all the material Richard is providing, plus others. Because, it seems the tide is turning:

    http://theantimedia.org/2016-americans-realized-elections-rigged/

    2016: The Year the Americans Found out Our Elections Are Rigged
    …………

    A Lot of Americans Found Out Because of Richard’s Work. So Grateful.

     
  12. Bev

    May 16, 2016 at 5:52 pm

    Hi Cindy, So glad you are here adding so much information. I did not watch that video though, because your summary was so good, I knew it would be frustrating. However, so much is now frustrating, and ways to overcome and problem solve are so important.

    Because more Bernie Delegates showed up at the State Convention in NV, they were eliminated in every possible way. Hillary’s delegates are either not so motivated or have changed their minds perhaps after learning about how her supporters don’t fight for us, they fight dirty:

    http://www.opednews.com/Quicklink/The-Media-is-Lying-Hillar-in-Best_Web_OpEds-Hillary-2016_Media-Corruption_Nevada-160224-183.html

    The Media is Lying- Hillary Didn’t Win Nevada. Harry Reid Stole It For Her
    Quicklink submitted by Rob Kall  
    There was nothing fair, decisive or ethical about Hillary’s Nevada win. Hillary scored her win in Nevada by changing the rules at the last minute & playing “dirty politics” to avoid a humiliating defeat that might have sunk her entire presidential campaign. 
    ………….

    http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-wins-nevada-democratic-caucus/

    Bernie Sanders Wins the Nevada Caucus After All
    Tom Cahill
    “We caught the Hillary campaign cheating, we caught the Nevada Democratic Party secretary cheating,” said Angie Sullivan, another member of the credentials committee for the Clark County Democratic Convention. “When it was apparent Bernie started winning, they really turned up the heat.”
    …………..

    Bernie’s lawyers need to problem solve this for every state, now:

    http://www.opednews.com/Quicklink/Eye-Witness-Step-by-Step-A-in-Best_Web_OpEds-Las-Vegas_Voter-Suppression-160516-621.html

    Eye Witness Step-by-Step Account of NV Dem Convention Fiasco
    Quicklink submitted By Meryl Ann Butler
    ……..

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/05/democratic-establishments-thuggish-power-grab-at-nevada-convention.html

    Democratic Establishment’s Thuggish Power Grab at Nevada Convention
    Posted on May 16, 2016 by Yves Smith

    Apparently annoyed at Sanders supporters having managed to take advantage of Clinton delegate candidate no-shows to obtain more spots, the Nevada state party put through rule changes weeks before the state convention that gave the meeting chair complete and arbitrary control of the final step in the delegate certification process. That in turn produced a convention that was entirely undemocratic in the small d sense, with some Sanders delegates who had won their positions via the then-existing rules being stripped of their standing. In addition, the meeting was run on authoritarian lines, with party members offering pro-Sanders motions having the microphones cut off and the meeting being terminated with motions still on the floor. Don’t buy Twitterverse claims that the meeting was run in accordance with Robert’s Rules of Order; accepting a motion to adjourn without a second was one of many dubious procedures.

    snip

    This is the short version, again from the YouTube page:
    I made a quick video explaining the backstory behind the convention. It’s too important to simply watch the videos and look away. You need to understand why it happened:

    Basically, NDems enacted some rules that were designed to give convention authority to the state chair. You can read about that here:

    https://www.change.org/p/nevada-state-democratic-party-tell-nvdems-to-not-steal-our-democracy-at-the-state-convention
    That group challenged these rules in court. That challenge was denied, essentially because the court didn’t feel it should intervene in party politics.

    Fast forward – The same group gets the requisite number of signatures to change these rules. Robert[a] ignores this, and enacts her rules:
    You can see where she does this here:

    Fast forward. Clinton wins by a few delegates, but over 64 delegates were rejected. By the board she chose. The argument is that with these votes, Sanders wins. Also worth noting, many were turned away because they simply could not find parking.

    At the end of the convention, we motioned the party platform. I called for Roberta’s removal here. My mic was cut:

    Fast forward: The delegates are counted. Roberta denies a recount, closes the convention at her discretion. She then bolts off stage. This, while being flanked by police.

    Most of the videos are here:
    Chaos At Nevada Democratic Convention; State Party Chair Flees Building As Sanders Supporters Demand Recount
    Rolle concludes (9:13):
    It didn’t have to happen. There’s no reason for that. All that board had to do was take a minute and listen, and bring those people into the discusssion. But I think we’re not talking about Hillary versus Bernie anymore. We’re way beyond that. Because the fact of the matter is that if Hillary legitimately had more people there, Hillary legitimately wins. OK. I get that, I think most most people understand that. That is not what we’re talking about. We are talking about a state party, and a national party, that are willing to usurp fairness in order to have their way. And that’s too bad.

    Lambert, who followed events on Twitter last night, says the Washington Post and CNN reports were at best incomplete. He also pointed out that the Sanders supporters did an impressive job of organizing; seemingly taking lessons from both Occupy and Black Lives Matter, they streamed everything live. As a result, they were able to put events on the public record and get their story out.
    After credible allegations of election tampering and vote suppression, this all-too-heavy-handed move to block Sanders voters is guaranteed to alienate Sanders voters. Don’t expect to find much brotherly love in Philadelphia.
    ………

    [10] Election Fraud, Tainted Water & More – Mike Papantonio Talks with Lee Camp
    Redacted Tonight

    Watch the video, it is better than my notes:
    Notes:
    – It would take an Attorney General to initiate a RICO case against voter suppression and #ExitPollGate voting machine fraud by the political parties

    – All the voter suppression of progressive Bernie voters and use of evidence free voting machines by Hillary and the DNC will work against Hillary and the DNC in the general election as the GOP have more experience at it while the DNC has kept quite about it all these years.

    – If the GOP dumps Trump, and Trump decides to run as an independent, that gives Bernie the opportunity to also run as an independent. In a four way match, he will have many more votes than anyone else. It will be harder to hide. He wins.

    – If Bernie and his supporters cannot overcome all the fraud by the political parties and Hillary and the GOP candidate, the movement must persist beyond this election.
    ……….

    My note: I do not know enough about tactics and strategy to guess why Bernie has not made a bigger issue of voter suppression and #ExitPollGate now, publicly versus later at the convention with leverage to handle privately or go full on public with all the material Richard is providing, plus others.

    The best evidence of election fraud that Richard Charnin is tracking, is that Bernie can prove his wins (avg. win is by app 65%) because they are based on open, public hand/head counts in caucuses and where there are paper ballots hand counted. Hillary cannot prove her wins (nor can Bernie prove his losses where Bernie’s avg. win is by app 43%) because they are on EVIDENCE REMOVED/HIDDEN e-voting, e-scanning machines controlled by the abusive rightwing.

    You do not need to understand advanced math, to understand that basic idea- EVIDENCE vs NO-EVIDENCE SYSTEMS.

    The tide is turning:

    http://theantimedia.org/2016-americans-realized-elections-rigged/

    2016: The Year the Americans Found out Our Elections Are Rigged

    “Now it’s just an oligarchy, with unlimited political bribery being the essence of getting the nominations for president or to elect the president. And the same thing applies to governors, and U.S. senators and congress members.” — Former President Jimmy Carter

    …………

    A lot of Americans Found Out Because of Richard’s work. So grateful.

    And, memeing that work: #ExitPollGate
    http://leecamp.net/

     
  13. Bev

    May 17, 2016 at 6:30 pm

    https://berniesanders.com/press-release/statement-nevada/

    Press Release
    Sanders Statement on Nevada

    FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders on Tuesday issued the following statement:

    “It is imperative that the Democratic leadership, both nationally and in the states, understand that the political world is changing and that millions of Americans are outraged at establishment politics and establishment economics. The people of this country want a government which represents all of us, not just the 1 percent, super PACs and wealthy campaign contributors.

    “The Democratic Party has a choice. It can open its doors and welcome into the party people who are prepared to fight for real economic and social change – people who are willing to take on Wall Street, corporate greed and a fossil fuel industry which is destroying this planet. Or the party can choose to maintain its status quo structure, remain dependent on big-money campaign contributions and be a party with limited participation and limited energy.

    “Within the last few days there have been a number of criticisms made against my campaign organization. Party leaders in Nevada, for example, claim that the Sanders campaign has a ‘penchant for violence.’ That is nonsense. Our campaign has held giant rallies all across this country, including in high-crime areas, and there have been zero reports of violence. Our campaign of course believes in non-violent change and it goes without saying that I condemn any and all forms of violence, including the personal harassment of individuals. But, when we speak of violence, I should add here that months ago, during the Nevada campaign, shots were fired into my campaign office in Nevada and apartment housing complex my campaign staff lived in was broken into and ransacked.

    “If the Democratic Party is to be successful in November, it is imperative that all state parties treat our campaign supporters with fairness and the respect that they have earned. I am happy to say that has been the case at state conventions in Maine, Alaska, Colorado and Hawaii where good discussions were held and democratic decisions were reached. Unfortunately, that was not the case at the Nevada convention. At that convention the Democratic leadership used its power to prevent a fair and transparent process from taking place. Among other things:

    The chair of the convention announced that the convention rules passed on voice vote, when the vote was a clear no-vote. At the very least, the Chair should have allowed for a headcount.
    The chair allowed its Credentials Committee to en mass rule that 64 delegates were ineligible without offering an opportunity for 58 of them to be heard. That decision enabled the Clinton campaign to end up with a 30-vote majority.
    The chair refused to acknowledge any motions made from the floor or allow votes on them.
    The chair refused to accept any petitions for amendments to the rules that were properly submitted.

    “These are on top of failures at the precinct and county conventions including trying to depose and then threaten with arrest the Clark County convention credentials chair because she was operating too fairly.”

     
  14. Michael Keenan

    May 18, 2016 at 12:03 am

     
  15. Bev

    May 19, 2016 at 10:38 am

    From: MiM via: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/05/15/2004-stolen-presidential-election-vs-2016-democratic-primarie/#comments

    Networks cancel exit polls in remaining primaries…of course.

    Can they be secured some other way? Via an indie news conglomerate of some kind maybe?

    https://electionfraud2016.wordpress.com/2016/05/17/big-networks-cancel-exit-polls-in-remaining-primaries/
    …………

    Lynn Landes and Auditing Elections:
    http://www.counttheballots.org/

    CANDIDATES!! DON’T CONCEDE UNTIL YOU’VE AUDITED YOUR ELECTION RESULTS. 
    Audits are in order, even if you think you lost in a landslide.  (Whistleblower) Clint Curtis found in his audit results a 12-24% difference from the ‘official’ results. So, flood your city council and election board meetings, and demand paper ballots and hand counts! 
    ……….

    But before citizen audits begin, LOOK AT THIS: Bernie may turn this tide now. Richard’s evidence and Bev Harris’ evidence prove beyond a doubt that Bernie has been winning all along.

    via: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/05/200pm-water-cooler-5182016.html

    Oregon, Kentucky
    “Sanders is considering seeking a recount in Kentucky, where Clinton was clinging to a lead of a half percentage point” [Bloomberg]. Probably wise.

    from: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-18/clinton-democrats-confronting-dangerous-divisions-within-party

    Clinton, Democrats Confronting Dangerous Divisions Within Party
    Sanders showed no intention of dialing back his fight against Clinton or urging his supporters to fall in line. His spokesman said Sanders is considering seeking a recount in Kentucky, where Clinton was clinging to a lead of a half percentage point.
    ………..

    Bernie needs to talk to Bev Harris on how to mitigate a new fraud she found in the machines in considering his Recount of Kentucky. Bev Harris’ new investigation is below, and the last chapter on how to mitigate is to come. Fast. Hopefully.

    http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-1/

    Fraction Magic – Part 1: Votes are being counted as fractions instead of as whole numbers
    By Bev Harris May 12, 2016
    tags COMPANIES, ELECTIONS INDUSTRY, MAKE AND MODEL, RESEARCH

    1 – Summary –
    This report summarizes the results of our review of the GEMS election management system, which counts approximately 25 percent of all votes in the United States. The results of this study demonstrate that a fractional vote feature is embedded in each GEMS application which can be used to invisibly, yet radically, alter election outcomes by pre-setting desired vote percentages to redistribute votes. This tampering is not visible to election observers, even if they are standing in the room and watching the computer. Use of the decimalized vote feature is unlikely to be detected by auditing or canvass procedures, and can be applied across large jurisdictions in less than 60 seconds.

    GEMS vote-counting systems are and have been operated under five trade names: Global Election Systems, Diebold Election Systems, Premier Election Systems, Dominion Voting Systems, and Election Systems & Software, in addition to a number of private regional subcontractors. At the time of this writing, this system is used statewide in Alaska, Connecticut, Georgia, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Utah and Vermont, and for counties in Arizona, (upcoming) California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming. It is also used in Canada.
    snip

    All:
    Part 1: Votes are being counted as fractions instead of as whole numbers
    http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-1


    Part 2: Context, Background, Deeper, Worse
    http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-2


    Part 3: Proof of code
    http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-3

    
Part 4: Presidential race in an entire state switched in four seconds
    http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-4


    Part 5: Masters of the Universe
    http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-5

    
Part 6: Execution capacity – coming –
    http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-6


    Part 7: Solutions and Mitigations – coming –
    http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-7

    …….

    http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/welcome_to_1984_20160514

    Chris Hedges
    Welcome to 1984

    Much of the left, Nader argues, especially with the Democratic Party’s blatant rigging of the primaries to deny Bernie Sanders the nomination, grasps that change will come only by building mass movements. This gives the left, at least until these protofascist forces also give up on the political process, a window of opportunity. If we do not seize it, he warns, we may be doomed.

     
  16. trkingmomoe

    June 13, 2016 at 10:29 am

    Reblogged this on Once Upon a Paradigm and commented:
    Here is a mother load of fraud in these numbers. Take a close look at these. I know some of you don’t have any background in Stats and Probability so I will try to find more explanation for you. It is all in the numbers.

     

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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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