Richard Charnin
Aug. 26, 2016
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries
In the Aug. 24 Ipsos/Reuters poll Clinton had 39%; Trump 36%; Johnson 7%; Stein 3%. The sample of 1,516 Americans included 635 Democrats (41.9%), 527 Republicans (34.8%), 174 Independents (11.5%) and 180 (11.8%) who did not indicate a preference. http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7349
The latest Gallup Party-ID survey indicates 28% Democrats, 28% Republicans and 42% Independents.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
In the July 17 Ipsos poll, Independents comprised just 14% of the sample. Stein had 1%. Clinton and Trump were tied. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/08/07/strange-polls-jill-stein-at-1-and-just-14-of-respondents-are-independents/
Why the large discrepancies between the Ipsos poll and Gallup Party-ID survey?
The Ipsos poll also indicated a Party_ID split of 36% Democrats and 25% Republicans – an apparent contradiction to the polling sample. Assuming the other 39% were Independents, it is a close match to the Gallup Survey.
In the primaries, Sanders won approximately 65% of Independents and 35% of Democrats. One would logically expect that Stein would do nearly as well as Sanders against Clinton in a four-way race. They are in essential agreement on major issues – and Clinton has very low approval ratings. But Stein had an implausibly low 3% on Aug. 24 and 1% on July 17.
True Vote Model Model Base Case
This is not a forecast. It is a scenario analysis based on the following assumptions.
Party-ID: 39% Independents, 36% Democrats, 25% Republicans.
Vote shares: Stein has 40% of Independents and 35% of Democrats. Clinton has 25% and 50%, respectively. They each have 5% of Republicans.
Base Case Result
Stein 29.45% and 231 EV, Clinton 29.00% and 196 EV, Trump 25.15% and 111 EV.
| Party-ID | Pct | Stein | Clinton | Trump | Johnson |
| Ind | 39% | 40% | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Dem | 36% | 35% | 50% | 5% | 10% |
| Rep | 25% | 5% | 5% | 70% | 20% |
| Total | 100% | 29.45% | 29.00% | 25.15% | 16.40% |
| Votes | 129,106 | 38,022 | 37,441 | 32,470 | 21,173 |
| Elect Vote | 538 | 231 | 196 | 111 | 0 |
| SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS | Stein | % Dem | |||
| Stein % | 31.0% | 33.0% | 35.0% | 37.0% | 39.0% |
| of Ind | Stein | ||||
| 45% | 30.0% | 30.7% | 31.4% | 32.1% | 32.8% |
| 40% | 28.0% | 28.7% | 29.45% | 30.2% | 30.9% |
| 35% | 26.1% | 26.8% | 27.5% | 28.2% | 28.9% |
| Clinton | |||||
| 45% | 28.5% | 27.8% | 27.1% | 26.3% | 25.6% |
| 40% | 30.4% | 29.7% | 29.00% | 28.3% | 27.6% |
| 35% | 32.4% | 31.7% | 31.0% | 30.2% | 29.5% |
| Stein | Margin | ||||
| 45% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% |
| 40% | -2.4% | -1.0% | 0.45% | 1.9% | 3.3% |
| 35% | -6.3% | -4.9% | -3.5% | -2.0% | -0.6% |
| Vote Margin (000) | |||||
| 45% | 1,898 | 3,757 | 5,616 | 7,475 | 9,334 |
| 40% | -3,137 | -1,278 | 581 | 2,440 | 4,299 |
| 35% | -8,172 | -6,313 | -4,454 | -2,595 | -736 |
Richard Charnin's Blog 
CarlAntoine
August 26, 2016 at 1:37 pm
Reblogged this on carlantoine and commented:
#BernieSanders #FeelTheBern #OurRevolution #JillStein #JillNotHill {#Clinton #Trump} #MSMbias Rigged polls
George
August 27, 2016 at 9:56 am
Thank you, Richard Charnin, for another major eye-opening analysis.
Martin Bishop
August 27, 2016 at 1:19 pm
It is curious that neither poll attempts to measure the number of voters affiliated with the Green party.
Kevin Trye
September 20, 2016 at 4:02 am
Won’t ever see this discussed on Fox/CNN. To show how hard the establishment is at preventing third parties entering the debates, here’s Lee Camp. http://bit.ly/third-party-polls