JFK Witness Deaths: Graphical Proof of a Conspiracy

JFK Witness Deaths: Graphical Proof of a Conspiracy

Richard Charnin
Oct.14, 2013
Updated:Aug.29, 2015

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Probability Tables

This post is updated for the latest data, analysis and graphics from the JFK Calc Spreadsheet/database of Unnatural and Suspicious Deaths. Mortality rates used for expected deaths and probabilities are from http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html.

The Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events based on the difference between the actual and statistically expected number.

Assuming that 1400+ material witnesses were connected to the assassination, then based on annual mortality rates for major causes of death, 214 deaths were expected in the 1964-78 period (196 natural and 18 unnatural). Among the 122 suspicious deaths in JFK Calc, 78 were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 16 suicides, 24 accidents, 4 unknown). The probability is:
P = E-61 (1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion).

Forty-four (44) deaths were officially ruled natural (heart attacks, cancers, other). But many accidents, suicides and natural deaths were likely homicides. Therefore, unnatural deaths were adjusted to 96 (85 homicides) based on cause of death mortality. Given N=1400 witnesses, T=15 years, n=96 unnatural deaths, R=0.000127 (JFK-weighted mortality), the expected number of unnatural deaths is:
E = 2.66 = 1400*15*0.000127
The probability: P = Poisson (96, 2.66, false) = 3.26E-111

To put the magnitude of the probabilities in context, there are approximately 10^24 (one trillion trillion) stars in the universe. The virtual ZERO probability of guessing the name of a star is much higher than the probability that there was not a conspiracy to assassinate JFK. It is mathematical proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

These books are highly recommended for detailed information on JFK witnesses:
Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination by Michael Benson (1400+ names, 97 in JFK Calc)
Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne (50 suspicious deaths, all in JFK Calc)
Crossfire by Jim Marrs (103 “convenient” deaths, virtually all in JFK Calc)
They Killed Our President by Jesse Ventura, Richard Russell and David Wayne (63 reasons)

John Simkin JFK Index
Seventy (70) of the 656 names in the Index are included among 126 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet. Officially 44 deaths were ruled unnatural, including 22 homicides. Only 8 unnatural deaths would be expected based on historical mortality rates. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=81

The probability of 44 unnatural deaths among the 656 from 1964-78 is
P= E-41 (one in one trillion trillion trillion).

The probability of 22 homicides given the 0.000084 national homicide rate is P = 6.4E-24 (one in a 150 billion trillion). If we triple the rate (over 50 witnesses were from the Dallas area), the probability is P= 4.3E-14 (one in 23 trillion).

Statistical expectations of the 44 officially ruled accidents, suicides, heart attacks and sudden cancers indicate that approximately 26 were HOMICIDES. Therefore, there were approximately 48 homicides among the 70 suspicious deaths. The probability of 48 homicides is less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion!

This is an interesting article on the coverup: https://jaylipp.fatcow.com/JFK/coverupWitness.html

Expected Deaths (1964-78)
1400 material witnesses
(based on annual mortality rates)
Natural. 196 14.02%
Unnatural 18 1.25%
Total… 214 15.28%

JFK Calc: 122 witness deaths (expected vs. actual)
Cause of Death…(Exp)ected (Off)icial (Est)imated (Rate: 1964-78 avg. mortality)
Cause..........Exp Off Est (Rate)
UNNATURAL
Homicide...... 1.77 34 85 (0.000084)
Accident..... 12.47 24 08 (0.000594)
Suicide....... 2.73 16 04 (0.000130)
Unknown........0.22 04 04 (0.000010)
Total..........17.2 78 101 (0.000818)

NATURAL
Cardiac…….. 8.7 25 10 (0.004913)
Cancer……… 3.5 05 04 (0.001991)
Other………. 4.6 14 07 (0.002480)
Total……….16.8 44 21 (0.009375)

Expected Deaths
…. Begin Card Canc Vasc Other Acc Suic Homic Alive
1964 1,400 7.61 2.71 2.39 1.26 0.90 0.18 0.08 1,385
1965 1,385 7.60 2.74 2.37 1.25 0.90 0.18 0.08 1,370
1966 1,370 7.58 2.75 2.36 1.25 0.92 0.18 0.08 1,355
1967 1,355 7.35 2.76 2.33 1.24 0.92 0.18 0.09 1,340
1968 1,340 7.43 2.78 2.32 1.26 0.92 0.18 0.09 1,325
1969 1,325 7.24 2.78 2.30 1.27 0.92 0.18 0.10 1,310
1970 1,310 6.90 2.78 2.27 1.27 0.91 0.18 0.10 1,296
1971 1,296 6.90 2.79 2.25 1.26 0.90 0.18 0.10 1,281
1972 1,281 6.86 2.80 2.23 1.25 0.90 0.18 0.11 1,267
1973 1,267 6.75 2.80 2.21 1.25 0.89 0.18 0.11 1,253
1974 1,253 6.42 2.82 2.19 1.24 0.88 0.18 0.11 1,239
1975 1,239 6.04 2.80 2.15 1.23 0.87 0.18 0.12 1,225
1976 1,225 5.98 2.84 2.12 1.22 0.85 0.18 0.12 1,212
1977 1,212 5.79 2.85 2.08 1.21 0.84 0.18 0.12 1,199
1978 1,199 5.74 2.87 2.04 1.20 0.83 0.18 0.12 1,186

Expected ..102.. 42.. 34.. 19.. 13… 3… 2.. 214
Share……7.3% 3.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 15.3%

1- Deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

2. 67 of 122 witnesses in JFK Calc were sought in four investigations.

3. Unnatural deaths far exceeded expected based on national mortality rates.

4. The probability of 33 unnatural deaths (there were 78 official) among 1400 witnesses is ZERO.

5. Sensitivity analysis probabilities:10-50 unnatural deaths; 1500-2500 witnesses.

6. Even assuming 25,000 FBI interviews, the probability of at least 38 homicides in 1964-66 is E-23. Only 4-5 would normally be expected.

7. There were at least 20 unnatural deaths (17 homicides) of 552 Warren Commission witnesses from 1964-78. Only 7 would normally be expected.

8. There were at least 42 homicides of 1100 witnesses sought in 4 investigations. Only one was expected.

9. The probability of 15 unnatural deaths in 7 years and 30 deaths in 15 years is ZERO.

10. Given 1400 JFK-related witnesses and average 1964-78 U.S. unnatural mortality rates, the ZERO probability threshold is 30 deaths. The unweighted probability of 96 unnatural deaths is E-39. The JFK-weighted probability is E-111.

11. Estimated Expected (214) and Actual (291) deaths of 1400 JFK-related individuals (1964-78) ; 122 listed in JFK Calc

12. About 51 of the 122 deaths were in Dallas which has a higher mortality rate than the national average. I tripled the national homicide rate from 0.000084 to 0.000253. The probability P of 34 official homicides using the adjusted Dallas rate is P = 7.60e-17 or 1 in 13,000 trillion.

Sample Probabilities

LONDON TIMES ACTUARY (1964-1966)
At least 18 deaths (13 unnatural); assume 459 witnesses
Normally, 2 unnatural deaths would be expected.
Using the 0.000207 weighted rate, the probability is ZERO.
P = E-17 = POISSON (13, .29, false)
P = 1 in 100,000 trillion

WARREN COMMISSION- 552 witnesses
At least 21 unnatural deaths among 552 witnesses
Normally, 7 unnatural deaths would be expected from 1964-78.
Using the 0.000135 weighted WC witness rate, the probability of at least 21 unnatural deaths is ZERO:
P = E-20 = POISSON (21, 1.12, false)
P = 1 in 15 million trillion

Probability of 18 homicides is ZERO:
P = E-19 = POISSON(18, 0.53, false)
P = 1 in 8 million trillion

1400 MATERIAL WITNESSES (Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination)
1964-66: at least 45 unnatural deaths .
Normally, 3 would be expected.
Using the 0.000842 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-33 = POISSON (45, 3.53, false)
P = 1 in 10 million trillion trillion

1964-78: at least 96 estimated unnatural deaths
Normally, 17 would be expected.
Using the 0.000818 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-39 = POISSON (96, 17.18, false)
P = 1 in 1000 trillion trillion trillion
Using the JFK-weighted rate (0.000127):
P = E-111 = POISSON (96, 2.66, false)

1964-78: at least 80 estimated homicides.
Normally, 2 would be expected.
Using the 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-100 = POISSON (80, 1.77, false)

Four Investigations: 1100+ witnesses called or sought to testify
49 unnatural deaths (14 expected).
Using the 0.000106 unnatural weighted rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-51 = POISSON (49, 1.81, false)

1964-78: 25,000 FBI Interviews
At least 80 homicides (32 expected)
Using the 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-23 = POISSON (80, 31.62, false)
P= 1 in 2 trillion

*******************************************************

HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T= 15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084
Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

Example: In the table, the probability P of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is
P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

The probability is of course higher assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals:
P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion).
Ten (8000*15*0.000084) homicides would normally be expected.

………………………………….Homicides (n) …………………….
N……10…… 20…… 30…… 40…… 50…… 60…… 70…… 80
Warren Commission
552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132

4 Investigations
1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108

“Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”
1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100

Warren Commission Index
2479 1.10E-03 1.50E-10 1.27E-19 3.78E-30 9.30E-42 3.12E-54 1.99E-67 3.05E-81

3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75
4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65

5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58
6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52

7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47
8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43

 

Exposing John McAdams: World-class Professor of Disinformation

Exposing John McAdams: World-class Professor of Disinformation

Richard Charnin
Oct.7, 2013
Updated: July 29, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

McAdams just responded to a post of mine on the JFK Forum website he administers- a gathering place for disinformationists and lone nutters who defend the Warren Commission Report regardless of the fact that it has been relegated to the fairy tale section in the library. They defend the WC by outright lies and omissions concerning factual evidence.

McAdams’ disinformation on a) Jack Ruby, b) the Single Bullet Theory, c) Lee Harvey Oswald and d) the medical evidence has been thoroughly debunked: http://richardcharnin.com/JMLaughingStock.html

In this post I will focus on bogus comments made by McAdams and others regarding the deaths of JFK witnesses. My website http://richardcharnin.com/ contains links to all of my JFK-related blog posts.

I will clear the air on the inane comments made by McAdams and others. Some comments may have been due to innocent ignorance; most are from lone nutters who must make outrageous comments to discredit my work. But they are just self-flagellating. The vast majority of Americans do not believe the Warren Report. They are quite convinced that there was a conspiracy to kill JFK.

So why do the apologists make these attempts to undermine the witness death probability analysis? Is it just a hobby or do they really believe what they write? Is McAdams such a tool that he must resort to these pathetic tactics? The “professor” lies about virtually everything. He has no shame. This is what McAdams wrote in response to my post. I refute each of his egregiously false comments below.

“This guy comes around every so often, and claims to have statistical evidence of an abnormal number of deaths among “JFK assassination witnesses.” But he’s published his list, and the vast majority of people on it are not witnesses. With very few exceptions, they have some extremely tangential connection with the assassination.

For example, the mayor of New Orleans in on the list! Further, Charnin provides no evidence of all about what the expected mortality among people of that age distribution is. Worse, the people on the list are not some objectively chosen group of people with an objectively defined “connection” with the assassination. They are people who are on the list *because* they died.

So Charnin, prove you are not merely a crackpot. Defend what you are claiming.
John”

John McAdams, you are slipping. You forgot to call me a “buff” and criticize my “factoids”. But thanks for giving me the chance to prove that I am not a “crackpot”.

If you actually read my analysis, you did not understand it; if you did not read it, you have no basis for making those false statements. Here are the 122 JFK Calc witnesses, date and cause of death, connection, investigation in which they were called to testify and links to their testimony and bios. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

STRIKE ONE
You say that the majority of people are not witnesses. Well, 67 of the 122 suspicious deaths were sought to testify in 4 investigations, starting with the Warren Commission in 1964 and ending at HSCA in 1978. They were relevant enough to be called as WITNESSES.

STRIKE TWO
You say that I have not taken into account expected mortality rates. Oh yes I have. Here are the mortality rates for 1963-1978: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html

STRIKE THREE
You say that I have not taken into account age distribution. Wrong again. The mortality table rates are age-adjusted for natural deaths (heart attacks, cancer, etc.). Of course, unnatural deaths are not age-adjusted. A bullet does not know the age of its victim; accidental deaths and suicides are not a function of age, either. That fact is obvious to everyone – except you. Eight-five of the 120 deaths in JFK Calc were UNNATURAL. As a professor, you should know the difference between UNNATURAL and NATURAL deaths. The HSCA noted just 21 witness deaths. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

STRIKE FOUR
You say that the names on they list are “not some objectively chosen group of people”. More than half of those on the list were called to testify. That’s an objective list, professor. The other half were well-known material witnesses who were never called to testify. Like Lee Oswald and Dorothy Kilgallen.

STRIKE FIVE
You say the witnesses were chosen for the death list because they died. That’s like Groucho Marx asking his guests: Who was buried in Grant’s Tomb? You bet your life they are on the list because they died – unnaturally or suspiciously. That’s the whole point, isn’t it?

The following are bogus statements made about the JFK witness death analysis – and my responses.

– I did not account for the age of the witnesses
The 1963-1978 mortality tables are age-adjusted for natural deaths (heart attacks, cancer, etc.). Unnatural deaths (homicides, accidents, suicides) comprise 85 of 120 witnesses in the JFK Calc spreadsheet. Age is irrelevant for unnatural deaths. A bullet does not know the age of its victim, does it John?

-The mortality rates of these witnesses are higher than the general population (such as 7 FBI officials who died just before their scheduled HSCA testimony).
Even assuming the FBI officials were 3 times more likely to die from heart attacks, the odds are 1 in 100 billion; assuming the same rate, 1 in 190 trillion. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/01/jfk-witness-deaths-7-fbi-officials-due-to-testify-at-hsca/

– Witnesses died in high-crime locations
Yes, and 51 out of  122 (42%) were in the Dallas area. How do you account for that John? Dallas has 2% of the U.S. population.

– The number of witnesses is unknowable. The HSCA statistician used that bogus claim to show that the actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds were invalid.
But the number of witnesses who testified at WC is known; we have data for the number called to testify in three other investigations. There were approximately 1100 called in total. Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination lists 1400 names of individuals related to the assassination. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/07/01/jfk-mysterious-witness-deaths-london-sunday-times-and-hsca-cover-up/

– According to John McAdams, the analysis has not been peer-reviewed.
He’s right, it hasn’t. The analysis has been open to the public on the Net for a year; no one has come forward to refute it. So what gives him the right to give it negative reviews?

McAdams obviously does not consider himself qualified to do a peer-review. I have asked him to review it line by line but he has not done so. He would rather just outright lie: like when he claims that I have not analyzed defined groups of witnesses; or that the witnesses have no relevance. His statements are on the record. As the saying goes: John, you own them. They will be your legacy.

John has not done a mathematical analysis because a) he is incapable, b) is too lazy, c) realizes that a thorough, robust analysis would destroy his case. All of his posts defending the Warren Commission and his calling all respected researchers “buffs” and all witnesses “mistaken” would make him an even bigger laughingstock than he is now.

– The 122 Witnesses in the JFK Calc database are not relevant or connected to JFK
This is absurd, typical McAdams; at least 67 were sought to testify. And they had no connection?https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

-There is no evidence to explain motive for the killings.
Motive is not an issue; it is irrelevant. All that matters is how many were called to testify, how many died unnaturally, and the time period. This is a PARADIGM SHIFT in the analysis. Keep in mind that an unknown number of “accidents”, “suicides”, “heart attacks” and “sudden cancers” were actually homicides. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/07/17/jfk-assassination-paradigm-shift-deaths-of-witnesses-called-to-testify/

– How come Mr. Buell Wesley Frazier is still alive? Why was he not eliminated?
Wesley told the Warren Commission that the package he saw Oswald carrying into the TSBD was too small to contain a rifle. Let’s turn the question around. Do you believe Frazier or the Warren Commission which ignored his testimony? The Warren Commission ALWAYS ignored evidence which did not support its foregone conclusion that Oswald did the shooting. But to answer the question: Why not ask how come “only” 95 of the 1400 listed in Whos Who in the JFK Assassination died suspiciously? Why just focus on Frazier? Would you expect that 100 of the 552 who testified at the Warren Commission would need to be be eliminated when “only” 20 to 30 were necessary to silence and send a message to the others. To question why any specific Warren Commission witness would not be eliminated while at the same time ignoring the statistically impossible number who were eliminated is patently ridiculous.

– Even though the probability that the witnesses died unnaturally is 1 in a trillion, it is not absolute ZERO so it is possible.
Yes, someone actually said that.

– The letter from the London Sunday Times Legal Manager to HSCA refutes the actuary’s calculation.
But the Sunday Times Legal Manager did not mention the actuary’s methodology or the fact that 13 of the 18 deaths were unnatural. The letter closes with the astounding statement that no one at the Times knew the actuary’s name!

– Bugliosi in his book claimed there were 2479 names in the Warren Commission index and that according to an actuary he consulted, the probability of the deaths was 1 in 1.2.
But a) the 2479 names in the index included non-witnesses like George Washington, Abe Lincoln and FDR and b) Bugliosi did not mention that total mortality rates were used in the calculation. That is incorrect. Unnatural deaths must be used.

– The London Times actuary’s odds were ridiculous and declared invalid by the HSCA.
The actuary probably worked for one of London’s largest insurance companies. The calculation was confirmed for 13 unnatural deaths among 459 witnesses and 18 total deaths among 560 witnesses.

-McAdams claims that there is no evidence that the 7 FBI agents who died mysteriously within 6 months in 1977 were called to testify at the HSCA.
But it is a fact. His statement shows desperation. He has no wiggle room to retort. http://educationforum.ipbhost.com/index.php?showtopic=3689

1977 mortality rates

0.004137 Heart Attack
0.000488 Accident
0.000092 Homicide
0.003094 Official weighted rate: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
0.001826 Speculative weighted rate: 4 homicides, 3 heart attacks


The probability of n deaths among N witnesses over T years, given mortality rate R, is
P = POISSON(n, T*N*R, false)

FOUR SCENARIOS
Assume N=20 FBI were called to testify at HSCA.

Scenario I: 7 heart attacks (reference illustration)
P= 3.95E-14= POISSON(7,.5*20*.004137, false)
Probability: 1 in 25 trillion

Official Cause of Death
Scenario II: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
P= 5.23E-15= POISSON(7,.5*20*.003094, false)
Probability: 1 in 190 trillion

Speculative Scenario III: 3 heart attacks, 4 homicides
P= 1.32E-16= POISSON(7,.5*20*.001826, false)
Probability: 1 in 7000 trillion

Speculative Scenario IV: 7 homicides
P= 1.11E-25= POISSON(7,.5*20*.000092, false)
Probability: 1 in 9 trillion trillion

Probability Sensitivity Analysis

Three scenarios of FBI heart attack mortality, assuming 20 FBI were called to testify at HSCA : 1) equal, 2) double and 3) triple the national rate. Even if FBI heart attack mortality is triple the national rate, the probability of 7 deaths in 6 months is still infinitesimal: 1 in 100 billion.

...Rate.........Probability
1- 0.003094 5.23E-15 1 in 190 trillion (same rate as population)
2- 0.006049 5.54E-13 1 in 1.8 trillion (double the rate)
3- 0.009004 8.70E-12 1 in 100 billion (triple the rate)


Assume that an impossible 100 FBI were called to testify.
P= 3.6E-10 or 1 in 2.7 billion.


All 7 heart 5 heart/ 3 heart/
FBI attacks 2 accid. 4 murders 7 murders
08. 6.63E-17 8.72E-18 2.18E-19 1.81E-28
20. 3.95E-14 5.23E-15 1.32E-16 1.11E-25
30. 6.61E-13 8.79E-14 2.23E-15 1.89E-24
100 2.61E-09 3.61E-10 9.56E-12 8.61E-21


 

JFK Witness Deaths: 7 FBI officials in 6 months in 1977 due to testify at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA)

JFK Witness Deaths: 7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA

Richard Charnin
Oct.1, 2013
Update: Oct.18, 2013

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

In 1977, seven top FBI officials due to testify at HSCA died in a 6 month period, five from heart attacks, one from an accidental gunshot and one from an accidental fall. This is powerful proof of a conspiracy, since it is focused on a specific group within a short time interval.

The HSCA did not mention any of these deaths in its claim that the London Sunday Times actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years was invalid because the witness universe was unknown. Approximately 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations from 1964-78: Warren Commission (552), Garrison/Shaw (80), Church Senate Intelligence (150) and HSCA (360). Of the witnesses called, at least 63 died, 39 unnaturally, of which 28 were homicides.

The HSCA noted just 21 witness deaths. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

SEVEN TOP FBI OFFICIALS DUE TO TESTIFY AT HSCA
7706 LOUIS NICHOLS Former #3, responsible for JFK investigation; heart attack
7706 REGIS KENNEDY  Confiscated home movies of assassination; heart attack
7708 JAMES CADIGAN Document expert; died from a fall in his home
7708 ALAN BELMONT Liaison to Warren Commission; natural causes
7710 J.M. ENGLISH Head of Forensic Sciences Laboratory; heart attack
7710 DONALD KAYLOR Fingerprint chemist; tied to Oswald “print” on rifle; heart attack
7711 WILLIAM SULLIVAN Headed Division 5 (Counter intelligence); Gunshot accident

As shown in a prior analysis, the relevance of witnesses called to testify is obvious, but their individual connections to the assassination is a moot point. The paradigm shift in approaching the problem is the recognition that motive and rationale for the elimination of witnesses is not a factor in the analysis. The mathematical calculation does not include a motive variable; the only relevant factors are 1) HOW MANY were called, 2) HOW MANY died, 3) the CAUSE of death (i.e. mortality rates) and 4) the TIME interval.

In this analysis we do not know how many FBI officials were called, but we do know how many died (7), the cause of death (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents) and the time interval (6 months). Since the number of FBI called is unknown, we will assume four scenarios: 8,20,30,100.

In each of the four scenarios, we calculate probabilities assuming a) 7 heart attacks, b) the official cause of death (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents); c) 4 homicides and 3 heart attacks; d) 7 homicides. The official cause of death may not be the actual cause; heart attacks and cancer can be induced. In order to calculate the probability of witness deaths we need the mortality rates for each cause of death.

Some WC defenders have suggested that FBI officials are more prone to heart attacks. Let’s eviscerate that canard right here by executing a sensitivity analysis to determine the overall probabilities assuming 20 FBI were sought to testify and 7 died (5 from heart attacks, 2 from accidents).  The probability of this scenario is 1 in 190 trillion.

We run three scenarios of FBI heart attack mortality 1) equal, 2) double and 3) triple the overall population mortality rate.  In the worst case scenario, the probability deaths billion.

Historical mortality rates for various causes of death

1977 Mortality Rates
0.004137 Heart Attack
0.000488 Accident
0.000092 Homicide
0.003094 Official weighted rate: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
0.001826 Speculative weighted rate: 4 homicides, 3 heart attacks


Probability P of exactly n deaths among N witnesses in T years,  mortality rate R: P = POISSON(n, T*N*R, false)

Probability of at least n deaths among N witnesses in T years,  mortality rate R: P = 1- POISSON(n-1, T*N*R, true)

FOUR SCENARIOS
Assume N=20 FBI were called to testify at HSCA.

Scenario I: 7 heart attacks 
P= 3.95E-14= 1- POISSON(6, 0.5*20*.004137, true)
Probability: 1 in 25 trillion

Official Cause of Death
Scenario II: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
P= 5.23E-15= 1- POISSON(6, .05*20*.003094, true)
Probability: 1 in 190 trillion 

Scenario III: 3 heart attacks, 4 homicides
P= 1.32E-16= 1- POISSON(6, 0.5*20*.001826, true)
Probability: 1 in 9000 trillion

 Scenario IV: 7 homicides
P= 1.11E-25= POISSON(7, 0.5*20*.000092, false)
Probability: 1 in 9 trillion trillion

Assume  100 FBI were called to testify: P= 3.6E-10 or 1 in 2.7 billion.


h=heart attack, a=accident, m=murder
FBI.. 7h..... 5h/2a.... 3h/4m..... 7m
08. 6.63E-17 8.72E-18 2.18E-19  1.81E-28
20. 3.95E-14 5.23E-15 1.32E-16  1.11E-25
30. 6.61E-13 8.79E-14 2.23E-15  1.89E-24
100 2.61E-09 3.61E-10 9.56E-12  8.61E-21


Probability Sensitivity Analysis

THREE SCENARIOS: FBI heart attack mortality vs. national rate
Assume 20 FBI officials were called to testify at HSCA. Even if FBI heart attack mortality is triple the national rate, the probability of 7 deaths in 6 months is still infinitesimal:1 in 100 billion.

...Rate.........Probability (assumption)
1- 0.003094 5.23E-15 1 in 190 trillion (heart attack rate equal to national)
2- 0.006049 5.54E-13 1 in 1.8 trillion (2X national)
3- 0.009004 8.70E-12 1 in 100 billion ( 3X national)


These graphs are mathematical proof of a conspiracy.