Proving Election Fraud: The PC, Spreadsheets and the Internet
Richard Charnin
Mar. 31, 2016
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO POSTS
Election Fraud Overview
This post is an overview of major advances in technology which ultimately proved that election fraud is systemic. There were three major turning points:
1- Personal computer (1979)
2- Spreadsheet software (1981)
3- Internet data access (1995)
A BRIEF HISTORY OF COMPUTERS AND SPREADSHEET TECHNOLOGY
Before the advent of the personal computer, mainframes and minicomputers were programmed by professionals in major corporations. Programming was hard and time consuming. Computers were used by scientists, engineers, investment bankers and other analytical professionals.
In 1965, my first job was as a numerical control FORTRAN programmer in the aerospace industry. The 7094 IBM mainframe was a 512k machine which required a full floor of office space. It was on rental from the U.S. Navy.
Computers grew in power and were smaller in size during the 1970s. As manager of software development in Investment Banking at Merrill Lynch on Wall Street . I used FORTRAN to develop financial models.
In the late 1970s, personal computers were considered as toys- until the first spreadsheets appeared. All of a sudden, one could do simple calculations without having to write complex programs. Lotus 1-2-3 had limited programming features (“macros”). I immediately converted FORTRAN financial programs to spreadsheets with graphics capabilities. As a consultant to major domestic and foreign corporations I switched to Excel in 1995 . Excel was used with C++ for advanced financial data base and derivatives models.
MATRIX OF DECEIT
A matrix is just a table (rectangular array) of numbers. In a spreadsheet, the table consists of data in cells (column, row). Basic arithmetic operations applied to the matrix are sufficient to prove election fraud.
Actual, raw unadjusted exit poll results are changed in all matrix crosstabs (demographics) to conform to the recorded vote. The crosstab “How Did You Vote in the previous election?” has proved to be the Smoking Gun in detecting presidential election fraud from 1988-2008.
2000
Gore won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and State Exit Poll aggregate which indicated that he won by 3-5 million votes – not the 540,000 recorded. But the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. The election was stolen – big time.
2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents) | ||||
Total | Gore | Bush | Nader | Other |
13,108 | 6,359 | 6,065 | 523 | 161 |
48.51% | 46.27% | 3.99% | 1.23% |
2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate | |||||
Voted ’96 | Turnout | Mix | Gore | Bush | Other |
New/DNV | 17,732 | 16% | 52% | 43% | 5% |
Clinton | 48,763 | 44% | 87% | 10% | 3% |
Dole | 35,464 | 32% | 7% | 91% | 2% |
Perot/other | 8,866 | 8% | 23% | 65% | 12% |
Total cast | 110,825 | 100% | 50.68% | 45.60% | 3.72% |
110,825 | 56,166 | 50,536 | 4,123 |
2000 National Exit Poll (forced to match recorded vote) | ||||||
Voted ’96 | Turnout | Mix | Gore | Bush | Other | |
New/DNV | 18,982 | 18% | 52% | 43% | 5% | |
Clinton | 42,183 | 40% | 87% | 10% | 3% | |
Dole | 35,856 | 34% | 7% | 91% | 2% | |
Other | 8,437 | 8% | 23% | 65% | 12% | |
Total | 105,458 | 100% | 48.38% | 47.87% | 3.75% | |
105,458 | 51,004 | 50,456 | 3,998 |
2004
The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush won by 3 million). The election was stolen.
Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll and State Exit Poll aggregate by 6 million votes. The True Vote Model (assuming a plausible estimate of returning 2000 election voters) indicated that he won by 10 million votes with a 53.7% share.
2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) | |||
Kerry | Bush | Other | |
13,660 | 7,064 | 6,414 | 182 |
share | 51.71% | 47.0% | 1.3% |
2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll | ||||||
(implausible 2000 returning voters; Gore won by 4-6m) | ||||||
2000 | Voted | Mix | Kerry | Bush | Other | |
DNV | 23,116 | 18.38% | 57% | 41% | 2% | |
Gore | 48,248 | 38.37% | 91% | 8% | 1% | |
Bush | 49,670 | 39.50% | 10% | 90% | 0% | |
Other | 4,703 | 3.74% | 64% | 17% | 19% | |
Total | 125,737 | 100% | 51.8% | 46.8% | 1.5% | |
125,737 | 65,070 | 58,829 | 1,838 |
2004 Final Adjusted National Exit Poll | |||||||
(Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote) | |||||||
2000 | Turnout | Mix | Kerry | Bush | Other | Alive | Turnout |
DNV | 20,790 | 17% | 54% | 44% | 2% | – | – |
Gore | 45,249 | 37% | 90% | 10% | 0% | 48,454 | 93% |
Bush | 52,586 | 43% | 9% | 91% | 0% | 47,933 | 110% |
Other | 3,669 | 3% | 64% | 14% | 22% | 3,798 | 97% |
Total | 122,294 | 100% | 48.27% | 50.73% | 1.00% | 100,185 | 94% |
59,031 | 62,040 | 1,223 |
2008
Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 61-37% (a 30 million vote margin). He won the State Exit Poll aggregate 58-40% (a 23 million vote margin). But the Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded 9.5 million vote margin. The landslide was denied.
2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) | |||
Obama | McCain | Other | |
17,836 | 10,873 | 6,641 | 322 |
100% | 61.0% | 37.2% | 1.8% |
2008 Final National Exit Poll | ||||
(forced to match recorded vote) | ||||
GENDER | Mix | Obama | McCain | Other |
Male | 47% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
Female | 53% | 56% | 43% | 1% |
Share | 100% | 52.87% | 45.59% | 1.54% |
Votes(mil) | 131.463 | 69.50 | 59.94 | 2.02 |
2008 Unadjusted National Exit Poll | ||||||
(plausible returning 2004 voter mix) | ||||||
Voted | 2004 | 2008 | Exact match to TVM & unadj state exit pollls | |||
2004 | Implied | Votes | Mix | Obama | McCain | Other |
DNV | – | 17.66 | 13.43% | 71% | 27% | 2% |
Kerry | 50.18% | 57.11 | 43.44% | 89% | 9% | 2% |
Bush | 44.62% | 50.78 | 38.63% | 17% | 82% | 1% |
Other | 5.20% | 5.92 | 4.50% | 72% | 26% | 2% |
Total | 131.46 | 100% | 58.00% | 40.35% | 1.65% | |
Votes | 131.463 | 76.25 | 53.04 | 2.17 |
Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll | ||||||
(forced to match recorded vote with | ||||||
Voted | 2004 | 2008 | impossible returning 2004 voters) | |||
2004 | Implied | Votes | Mix | Obama | McCain | Other |
DNV | – | 17.09 | 13% | 71% | 27% | 2% |
Kerry | 42.53% | 48.64 | 37% | 89% | 9% | 2% |
Bush | 52.87% | 60.47 | 46% | 17% | 82% | 1% |
Other | 4.60% | 5.26 | 4% | 72% | 26% | 2% |
Total | 131.46 | 100% | 52.87% | 45.60% | 1.54% | |
Votes | 131.463 | 69.50 | 59.95 | 2.02 |
2004 Sensitivity Analysis
How is Kerry’s vote share effected by changes in vote share assumptions? Consider the following matrices (tables). He wins all plausible scenarios.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_foUi89DGNmwspKRFTgh5tOjjba4el2GLJEJLK-M2V8/edit#gid=0
2004 True Vote Model | |||||
(Plausible 2000 returning voter mix) | |||||
2000 | Voted | Mix | Kerry | Bush | Other |
DNV | 22,381 | 17.8% | 57% | 41% | 2% |
Gore | 52,055 | 41.4% | 91% | 8% | 1% |
Bush | 47,403 | 37.7% | 10% | 90% | 0% |
Other | 3,898 | 3.1% | 64% | 17% | 19% |
Total | 125,737 | 100% | 53.6% | 45.1% | 1.4% |
67,362 | 56,666 | 1,709 |
Kerry share of returning Gore voters | |||||
89.0% | 90.0% | 91.0% | 92.0% | 93.0% | |
Share of returning Bush 2000 | Kerry Vote Share | ||||
12.0% | 53.2% | 53.6% | 54.1% | 54.5% | 54.9% |
11.0% | 52.9% | 53.3% | 53.7% | 54.1% | 54.5% |
10.0% | 52.5% | 52.9% | 53.3% | 53.7% | 54.1% |
9.0% | 52.1% | 52.5% | 52.9% | 53.3% | 53.7% |
8.0% | 51.7% | 52.1% | 52.5% | 52.9% | 53.4% |
Margin (000) | |||||
12.0% | 9,827 | 10,859 | 11,892 | 12,924 | 13,956 |
11.0% | 8,871 | 9,903 | 10,935 | 11,967 | 13,000 |
10.0% | 7,914 | 8,946 | 9,978 | 11,011 | 12,043 |
9.0% | 6,957 | 7,990 | 9,022 | 10,054 | 11,086 |
8.0% | 6,001 | 7,033 | 8,065 | 9,097 | 10,130 |
Kerry share of New voters (DNV) | |||||
Kerry share of | 53.0% | 55.0% | 57.0% | 59.0% | 61.0% |
returning Bush 2000 voters | Kerry Vote Share | ||||
12.0% | 53.3% | 53.7% | 54.1% | 54.4% | 54.8% |
11.0% | 53.0% | 53.3% | 53.7% | 54.0% | 54.4% |
10.0% | 52.6% | 52.9% | 53.3% | 53.6% | 54.0% |
9.0% | 52.2% | 52.6% | 52.9% | 53.3% | 53.6% |
8.0% | 51.8% | 52.2% | 52.5% | 52.9% | 53.2% |
Margin | |||||
12.0% | 10,098 | 10,995 | 11,892 | 12,789 | 13,686 |
11.0% | 9,141 | 10,038 | 10,935 | 11,832 | 12,729 |
10.0% | 8,184 | 9,081 | 9,978 | 10,876 | 11,773 |
9.0% | 7,228 | 8,125 | 9,022 | 9,919 | 10,816 |
8.0% | 6,271 | 7,168 | 8,065 | 8,962 | 9,859 |
Kerry Win Probability | 53.0% | 55.0% | 57.0% | 59.0% | 61.0% |
Win Prob | (3% MoE) | ||||
12.0% | 99.6% | 99.8% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
11.0% | 99.2% | 99.6% | 99.8% | 99.9% | 100.0% |
10.0% | 98.4% | 99.2% | 99.6% | 99.8% | 99.9% |
9.0% | 97.2% | 98.4% | 99.1% | 99.6% | 99.8% |
8.0% | 95.1% | 97.0% | 98.3% | 99.1% | 99.5% |