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JFK: Videos that Prove a Conspiracy

JFK: Videos that Prove a Conspiracy

Richard Charnin
Dec. 13, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

Warren Commission defenders say there is no evidence which proves a conspiracy. They need to go from the Boob Tube to the You Tube.

Witnesses
Grassy Knoll https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2U8jHKG74g
S.M. Holland https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfRivH8G9tY
Penn Jones http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=IB5JGfxIxFk&feature=endscreen
Roger Craig http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFEx8hjD8kE
Marina Oswald https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swHZ0DxB8n8
Judyth Baker http://thelip.tv/episode/lee-harvey-oswalds-lover-jfk-assassination-plot-recruited-develop-super-cancer-kill-castro/

John Connally http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cP04_lGjkO0
Dr Charles Crenshaw http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXZ87gOlKkM
E.H. Hunt http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4GD_PIbQZ4
LBJ Mistress http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79lOKs0Kr_Y

Jack Ruby
LBJ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Udwj7i5ACgY
Polygraph http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxfXNzbSFcQ
True Facts/motive http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yv3o9vx3VNM
They knew Jack http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PuL2XPZ42Q

Expert Evidence
Jack White http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCigDMyHisE
Nathan Darby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdF64wI-3Fg

Authors
Fletcher Prouty https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qz56WytRlqo
James Douglass http://vimeo.com/35174755
Jim Marrs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhNgK_PJBTk
David Lifton https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQg91vALZv4
Roger Stone http://www.c-span.org/video/?316819-1/book-discussion-man-killed-kennedy

Investigators
Jim Garrison http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hqo2c_SxQag
Church Committee http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ij1lSmvpgZQ

FBI Agents (autopsy)
O’Neill no bullet exit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMzhKy-O4T4
Sibert (Ford & Spector) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDNZBfPkbPk

Doug Horne (ARRB)
autopsy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LohiQe2LBg
medical evidence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrVyOYsx81k
Zapruder film http://vimeo.com/102327635

Documentaries
Oliver Stone https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhVflCawf7w
Nigel Turner http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2agPurqFJk
Richard Belzer http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRajqoXzABw
Jesse Ventura http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfDASCapA9Q

Movies
JFK http://ffilms.org/jfk-1991/
Executive Action https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9f96oieNA8
The Missiles of October https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOjhSVpZOuM
Thirteen Days http://ffilms.org/thirteen-days-2000/

 
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Posted by on December 13, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK: How will the Warren Commission Apologists explain the Tippit Timeline?

Richard Charnin
Dec. 11, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

This is for Vincent Bugliosi, Gerald Posner, David Von Pein, John McAdams, Dave Reitzes, Dale Myers, Scott Aaronson, Bob Scheiffer, Rachel Maddow and other interested parties. Can any of you explain why the Warren Commission stated that Tippit was shot at 1:16pm when all the witnesses said it was no later than 1:06?

But first, please explain why the WC noted 1:16 as the time of Tippit’s death (at the SCENE of the shooting) since he was officially pronounced dead at 1:16 in Methodist Hospital? How did the ambulance get to the hospital before 1:16 if he was shot dead at 1:16?

Note: The death certificate from Methodist Hospital signed by Joe B. Brown lists the time of death at 1:15. The police supplementary offense report states that Dr. Liguori pronounced the officer dead at 1:15. An FBI report dated 11/29/63 in which Dr. Liguori pronounced the officer dead at 1:25 looks like it originally said 1:15 and was changed. The Dallas Police Homicide report signed by Liquori said Tippit was pronounced DOA at 1:30.

They had to add ten minutes to the time of Tppit’s death so that they could say Oswald shot him at 1:16. Oswald was spotted outside his apartment at 1:04. He could not have gone to the Tippit scene by 1:06. He would have had to run a 0.9 mile in two minutes. So they changed the time of the shooting to 1:16 – and had to change the time of the ambulance arrival at Methodist Hospital. It is all so transparent.

From S.r. Dusty Rohde, this is THE SMOKING GUN: https://22novembernetwork.wordpress.com/2014/11/15/the-murder-of-j-d-tippit-by-s-r-dusty-rohde/

The insert shown above is taken from the actual Certificate of Death, Tippit’s name was misspelled, but the document clearly shows the time and date of death. There is no way Lee Harvey Oswald shot a “living” J.D. Tippit at either 1:15 or 1:16pm. That statement by the Warren Commission was an outright lie. A lie expressed for the sole purpose of deceiving the American public.

The Warren Commission had the Tippit documents in their hands, they knew the “legal” time of death, they knew Oswald couldn’t have shot Tippit at 1:15 or 1:16pm, and yet they still chose to tell the lie.

J.D. Tippit could not have been shot at 1:16, his legal and lawful time of death is recorded as 1:16pm. Now why does that matter? Before Tippit was pronounced “dead” at the hospital, he had to be removed from the ambulance, wheeled to the emergency room, transferred off of the ambulance gurney onto the hospital bed. Doctors had to do a quick scan, then attempt to clear an airway and possibly administer CPR in the attempt to save Tippit’s life, all “before” declaring the man officially dead.
————————————————————————–
Now, about those witnesses, this is what they said:

These are the witnesses:
• DPD Channel 1 dispatcher Murray Jackson contacts Tippit at 1:03 to get his location but gets no response. https://jaylipp.fatcow.com/JFK/tippet.html

• Dallas County Sheriff Deputy Roger Craig hears of the Tippit shooting at 1:06 over the police radio. http://www.ratical.org/ratville/JFK/WTKaP.pdf

• Dallas policeman T.F Bowley arrives at the scene at 1:10. http://texashistory.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metapth339132/

• According to Warren Commission exhibit 705, immediately following T.F Bowley’s transmission at 1:10, the DPD dispatcher called over DPD Channel 1 radio that Tippit had been shot. http://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh17/pdf/WH17_CE_705.pdf

And there were many more…

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/jfk-did-oswald-shoot-tippit-eyewitnesses-no-warren-commission-yes/

 
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Posted by on December 11, 2014 in JFK

 

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2014 WI and FL Governor election fraud: Adjusting the exit poll Party-ID mix

2014 WI and FL Governor: Exit Poll Party-ID crosstabs adjusted to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin
Dec. 9, 2014

http://richardcharnin.com/

Look inside the books:
Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Our elections are fraudulent:Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

In prior posts, we analyzed how the 2014 Governor exit polls in Wisconsin and Florida were adjusted to match the recorded vote (by changing how returning voters said they voted in the prior election). In this post, we will focus on voter Party-ID and show how it was adjusted.

Florida maintains voter party registration statistics. There are no such stats in Wisconsin, but we have pre-election polls from 2004-2012 which provide a good estimate of the mix.

In order to match the recorded votes in WI and FL, all exit poll demographic crosstabs must be adjusted. The Party-ID crosstab is an important example since it can be compared to other polls which asked for party affiliation.

We will compare bogus Party-ID percentages in the adjusted exit poll (in order to force a match to the bogus recorded shares) to actual (FL) or poll (WI) Party-ID percentages in order to approximate the True Vote. We use the adjusted exit poll vote shares assuming they are essentially accurate. Therefore, adjustments to the Party-ID mix must be made to force the exit poll to match the recorded vote.

Florida

The pollsters increased registered third-party voters by nearly 8%, reduced Democrats by 8% with no change in the 35% Republican Party_ID. This had the effect of reducing Crists’ share by 4% while increasing Scott’s by 2.5%.

Florida 2014 Exit Poll (adjusted to match the recorded vote)
PARTY-ID........Mix Crist Scott Other
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2%
Other...........33% 46% 44% 8%

Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.9%

PARTY-ID (based on actual 2014 Registration totals)
PARTY-ID........Mix Crist Scott Other
Democrat........38.8% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35.0% 10% 88% 2%
Other...........26.2% 46% 44% 10% (changed to 10% to equal 100%)

Total..........100.0% 50.9% 44.7% 4.4%

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/voter-registration/statistics/pdf/2014/GEN2014_CountyParty.pdf

Wisconsin

Democratic Party-ID was 30.6% in 2004 and increased in three of the next four years to 35.6% in 2008. Republican Party-ID decreased from 31.3% in 2004 to 28.6% in 2008.

In the 2014 WI Governor exit poll, the Democratic Party-ID share was 5% higher than the Marist poll, but the Republican ID share increased by 11%. The gains were at the expense of total third-parties: Party-ID declined by a whopping 16%.


Party-ID
............. Dem Rep Other

2004...... 30.6% 31.3% 29.1%
2008...... 35.6% 28.6% 35.8%
2012...... 31.0% 26.0% 43.0% (Marist Poll)

Wisconsin 2014 Exit Poll (Party-ID mix adjusted to match the recorded vote)
Party-ID........Mix Burke Walker Other
Democrat........36% 93% 6% 1%
Republican......37% 4% 96% 0%
Other...........27% 43% 54% 3% (3rd party mix decreased 16% from Marist poll)
Total..........100% 46.6% 52.3% 1.1%

2014 Exit Poll (Party-ID mix based on 2012 Marist poll)
Party-ID........Mix Burke Walker Other
Democrat........31% 93% 6% 1%
Republican......26% 4% 96% 0%
Other...........43% 49% 49% 2% (adjusted to equal 49% third party shares)
Total...........100% 50.9% 47.9% 1.2%

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:

http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2009/02/democrats_lure_independents_to_1.php

http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2008/06/trends-in-party-identification-in.html

 
 

Wisconsin 2014 Governor: Cumulative Ward Voting Indicates Fraud

Wisconsin 2014 Governor: Cumulative Ward Voting Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Dec.2, 2014

http://richardcharnin.com/

Look inside the books:
Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Our elections are fraudulent:Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

The 2014 Wisconsin Governor Cumulative County vote share analysis for all units/wards is available in a spreadsheet for viewing. Vote shares are sorted by increasing ward size for each county. The graphs look strikingly similar to the equivalents in the 2012 recall (especially Milwaukee and Racine). This indicates that the 2012 vote theft strategy was repeated in 2014. If it worked in the recall, why change it? Cumulative vote graphs for the largest counties are located adjacent to the unit/ward vote counts. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdEhqXzdlbUhZT1Vic3RSQmU2cUVkc3c&usp=sharing#gid=9

In Milwaukee County, Walker vote shares increased as a function of Unit/Ward size. The increase can be considered as evidence of fraud. One would expect that the lines would be nearly parallel after 90,000 votes. But even parallel lines could indicate constant fraud throughout the county. See the graph below.

A good analogy is a baseball player’s batting average. The BA will fluctuate greatly in the beginning of the season due to the small number of at bats. But the BA becomes less volatile as the number of at bats increase – an illustration of the Law of Large Numbers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

The counties that look the most suspicious by the upward slope of Walker shares in large units and wards are Ashland, Brown, Kenosha, Dane, Eau Claire, Jefferson, Milwaukee, Racine, Sheboygan, Winnebago, Waukesha. Of course, a flat line could indicate fraud is uniform throughout the county

This spreadsheet can be used as a reference. It will be be enhanced in the near future. Let me know what features you would like to see. View the voting data and graphics in the sheets: Adams-Menominee and Milwaukee-Wood.

Compare the 2012 recall cumulative county vote trend analysis to 2014. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/12/09/walker-recall-county-cumulative-vote-trend-by-ward-group/

 

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The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 19, 2014

http://richardcharnin.com/

Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
This is how elections are stolen. Click Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts to look inside the book.

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

This question has proven to be devastating for those who still believe there is no such thing as election fraud. The exit pollsters freely admit that they adjust the polls to match the recorded vote. The rationale is that since the exit polls are always off by an 8% average margin, they must be adjusted to match the pristine, fraud-free recorded vote. The pollsters never consider the possibility that the unadjusted exit polls were accurate; they claim that the discrepancies are due to consistently bad polling.

So why do the pollsters get paid the big bucks from the National Election Pool? In any other profession, if your analysis is way off, you had better get it right the next time. If it’s way off on your second try, you get one more chance. If you fail a third time, that’s it. Someone else gets your job. But here’s the catch: the pollsters were accurate; the unadjusted polls matched the True Vote. So why did they have to adjust the polls to match the bogus recorded vote?

The unadjusted exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote in every presidential election since 1988. The Democrats won the state and national exit polls by 52-42%, but won the the recorded vote by just 48-46%. The probability of the discrepancy: 1 in trillions. The exit polls were right. The vote counts were wrong. It’s as simple as that.

Does the rationale sound crazy to you? Despite all of the anecdotal evidence of election fraud, it is never considered by the corporate media (the National Election Pool) who fund the exit pollsters.

This graph shows that in the 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, the National Exit Poll was forced to claim there was over 100% turnout of living Nixon, Bush1 and Bush2 voters from the prior election. Impossible – and proof of fraud.

I have been posting on this very unscientific procedure since 2004. In this post I will review the basic method used to match the vote: changing the mix of returning voters. We will look at the 2004-2008 presidential elections and the 2010-2014 Wisconsin and Florida governor elections. The pattern of deceit will be revealed by adjustments made to the number of exit poll respondents and returning voters to match the official recorded vote counts – and cover up the fraud.

2004 Presidential
There were 13,660 National Exit Poll respondents and 51.7% said they voted for Kerry. But Bush won the recorded vote by 50.8-48.3%. So the pollsters had to switch 6.7% of Kerry respondents to Bush.

Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and another million did not return in 2004. Therefore, there were at most 47.5 million returning Bush 2000 voters. The National Exit poll indicated that 52.6 million Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004. The pollsters had to create at least 5 million phantom Bush voters. Of course, this made no sense. But who questioned it? Who even knew about it? http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

2008 Presidential
There were 17,836 National Exit Poll respondents. Obama had 61% in the unadjusted poll but just 53% in the vote count. The adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 46% of 2008 voters (60 million) were returning Bush 2004 voters and 37% (48 million) returning Kerry voters.This was impossible; it implied a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters. Bush won the recorded vote by 3 million. But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 6 million and the True vote by nearly 10 million. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

2010 Florida Governor
Scott defeated Sink with 50.59% of the 2-party vote. But Sink easily won the unadjusted exit poll. In order to match the recorded vote, the adjusted exit poll indicated a 47/47% split in returning Obama and McCain voters. But Obama won the recorded vote by 6%, so it is reasonable to assume that there would have been more returning Obama voters than McCain voters – and the unadjusted exit poll indicates precisely that. Sink won the election. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=2079407084

2014 Florida Governor
Scott had 50.58% of the 2-party vote, within .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The crosstab How Did You Vote in 2010 is not listed, so let’s look at the Florida Party ID demographic. Democrats have traditionally outnumbered Republicans in Florida.

In 2014, the Democrats led in voter registration:
Total..... Dem .........Rep..... Other
11,931,533 4,628,178 4,172,232 3,131,123
.......... 38.79%.... 34.97%... 26.24%

But the 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33% (Dem-Rep-Ind) split. Crist had stronger support among Democrats (91%) than Scott did among Republicans (88%). Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When Party ID is changed to a plausible 34-33-33% split, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. There is an anomalous disconnect between Party ID and vote share.

2012 Wisconsin Walker Recall
In 2008, Obama won Wisconsin with a 56.2% recorded share. He had 63.3% in the unadjusted exit poll, far beyond the 2.5% margin of error. The exit poll is strong evidence that election fraud sharply reduced Obama’s True Vote.

In 2010, Walker won by 124,638 votes with a 52.3% share. in 2012, he won the recall by 171,105 votes with 53.1%. But the True Vote Model (TVM) showed that he needed 23% of Obama returning voters to match the recorded vote. That is extremely implausible – and a red flag. It’s further evidence that Barrett won the election. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/07/11/the-walker-recall-true-vote-model-implausible-vote-shares-required-to-match-the-vote/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=t4pqdOMFhfNwaIq8ELOAg_w#gid=32

2014 Wisconsin Governor
Walker won with a 52.9% share. The exit poll was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by cutting returning Barrett voters to just 35% of 2014 voters, compared to Walker’s 50%. The 15% differential is much higher than the 7% Walker recorded margin (8% discrepancy) and the 6% Barrett True Vote margin (a 21% discrepancy).When the returning voter mix is changed to a feasible Barrett 45/Walker 41%, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%. In the “How Voted in 2012″ crosstab, vote shares are missing for Other (3%) and New Voters (DNV 11%). This is highly anomalous and another “tell” that Walker stole the election. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oAq0CJ1QSfy4JaNYpM_5esTafUdpt3ipgJU0Iz8RlD0/edit#gid=2079407084

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:

http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

 

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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

http://richardcharnin.com/

Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

This is how elections are stolen. Click Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts to look inside the book.

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

As usual Nate gets it wrong. He talks about polling bias but not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). As we move toward Election Day, the polls are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

The true bias is that pollsters skew the projections in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Nate Silver never considers that the RV polls are usually close to the truth – but that the LV polls are biased against the Democrats. So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. He believes the official vote counts are accurate, but in reality any researcher who analyzes the historical record should see a consistent pattern – a red shift- to the GOP. It is absolute proof that the recorded vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans. http://electiondefensealliance.org/?q=voter_cutoff_model

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. The pollsters admit it. It is standard operating procedure. The rationale is that the polls must be wrong and therefore must be adjusted to match the pristine fraud-free recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls.

I just posted the True Vote model for the Wisconsin and Florida governor races. Both races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

In the 2010 Florida Governor election, the unadjusted exit poll and the True Vote Model indicated that Sink won by 5%, yet Scott won the recorded vote by 1%. In 2014, Scott won again. The 2-party vote shares were identical! Scott had 50.59% in 2010 and 50.58% in 2014! A coincidence? Hardly.The Florida 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a True Vote analysis indicates that Walker stole the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Nate Silver never discusses Election Fraud, even though it has been proven systemic. I pointed this a few years ago in a reply to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. His knowledge of exit polls was (and apparently still is) non-existent. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

The easiest way to understand that our elections are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. According to the adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (as posted on major media sites), there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 2004 electorate) and 37% returning Gore voters. Recall that Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. Gore won the unadjusted exit polls by 50-45% (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

But Bush had only 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return. Therefore, there were at least 5 million (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. The exit pollsters had to adjust the unadjusted, pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the recorded vote. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

And finally, here is the ultimate proof of systemic election fraud. In the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Of the 274 exit polls 135 exceeded the margin of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Take anything from Nate Silver with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT. He never mentions PROVEN ELECTION FRAUD . And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Zogby dead last in his evaluation of pollsters a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

I have written several open-letter posts for Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2) http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/TwentySilver.htm
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/
5. Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings http://richardcharnin.com/SilverRankings.htm

The bottom line: Nate works for the major corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 

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Florida 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Florida 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov.14, 2014
Updated:Nov.21, 2014

http://richardcharnin.com/

Our democracy was stolen on Nov.22,1963: Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
This is how elections are stolen. Click Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts to look inside the book.

For the first time since 2000, I decided not to do election forecasting and post-election True Vote analysis for 2014. Systemic Election Fraud has been proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Nothing has changed, the media remains mute on election fraud and congress refuses to do anything about it.

I decided to analyze the Florida Governor election since there has been a strong response to the Wisconsin Governor post. This post will essentially duplicate the Wisconsin analysis. Only the numbers will change. Important general comments on Election Fraud will be repeated here.

Once again, the mantra must be repeated: The key to understanding how elections are rigged is to take a close look at the exit polls. The unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, so we must look at the adjusted exit poll (national, state, governor) for clues.

The 2014 election was 2010 deja vu. In 2010, Scott won the 2-party recorded vote with 50.59%. In 2014, he won with 50.58%! He won the recorded vote by 49.6-48.4% (62,000 votes). Sink won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-45.4% (283,000 votes). In 2014 Scott won the recorded vote by 1.1% (48.2-47.1%), while Crist won the True Vote by 52.0-48.0%.

This is the direct link to the 2014 Florida Governor True Vote analysis: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=841488888

The 2014FLGov spreadsheet contains the following worksheets:
– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
– 2010 Florida Exit Poll (‘2010 FL EP’)
– 2014 Florida Exit Poll (‘2014 FL EP’)
– 2014 FL County Vote vs. 2010 (“Counties’)
– 2014 True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)

There is a distinct pattern which keeps repeating: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. That is a fact; the pollsters admit it, but claim that they do it to correct the polls. The assumption is that the recorded vote count is pristine and that there is no fraud. At least that is what the pollsters and pundits would like you to believe. But there is no longer any doubt: elections are routinely fraudulent.

In order to adjust the exit poll to match the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from the previous election and/or each candidate’s share of returning and new voters must be changed. All other crosstabs must be adjusted. I have stated this often in posts as far back as 2004 as well as in my books.

2014 NEP (forced to match the recorded vote)
This sheet contains a selected set of crosstabs (demographics). The Gender demographic is within 0.6% of the recorded vote because it was forced to match the vote. The exit poll margin of error was approximately 2%. The probability of a 0.6% deviation is close to zero. The deviation illustrates that the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure – and unscientific. It’s no different then a serial thief daring the police to stop him. But they never do even though they have the statistical evidence of fraud and a signed confession.

Florida 2010 Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
Scott won by 49.6-48.4%, a 62,000 vote margin. But Sink (D) won the unadjusted exit poll by 283,000 votes (50.8-45.4%, a 6.6% margin discrepancy). There were 3,150 exit poll respondents and a 2.3% poll margin of error. Sink had a 99% win probability. But the poll was forced to match the recorded vote.

Just as in presidential election exit polls, the returning 2008 voter percentages were implausible. In the ’Voted in 2010′ crosstab, 47% of 2010 voters were returning Obama voters and 47% were returning McCain voters. But Obama won the Florida 2008 unadjusted exit poll by 6% So how does one explain the equal 47% mix of returning voters? This is the standard ‘tell’: the mix is adjusted to maximize the Republican vote and minimize the Democratic vote. The mix and the vote shares were changed to reflect the 2008 unadjusted exit poll.
Sink is the winner of the True vote by 50.8-45.4%

2010 Unadjusted Exit Poll
................Sink Scott Other
Respondents.....1600 1431 119
Poll Share......50.8% 45.4% 3.8%
Poll Vote.......2683 2400 200
Margin..........283

2010 True Vote
2008...........Vote Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........989 49.7% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........848 42.6% 7% 87% 2%
Other...........220 6.0% 53% 44% 3%
DNV..............34 1.7% 53.0% 44.0% 3%
True Vote.......1991
Respondents....1991 100% 50.8% 45.4% 3.8%
Votes...................5282 2683 2399 200
Margin 195

2010 Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
2008............Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........47% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........47% 11% 87% 2%
Other............3% 31% 67% 2%
DNV..............3% 31% 67% 2%
Total..........100% 48.4% 49.6% 2.0%
Votes.................. 2556 2620 106
Margin -64

Florida 2014 Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
The How Voted in 2010 crosstab was not listed, but we have the True Vote model. The returning voter mix was changed to reflect the 2010 unadjusted exit poll. Crist is the winner of the True vote by 52-48%.

Party ID
The Florida Adjusted 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%.

Counties
There were nearly 500,000 more voters in 2014 than in 2010. Presumably, this increase in turnout would be expected to help Crist. As mentioned, Sink won the True Vote in 2010. But Scott’s 2014 margin increased by 5,000 votes. This is counter-intuitive; strong turnout always favors the Democrats.

The True Vote Model
The model data was updated for 2014 using 2010 returning and new voters. The assumptions for the base case scenario:
1) Sink had a 52.2% True Vote share in 2010
2) In 2014, there was a 93% turnout of living 2010 voters
3) Crist had 92.5% of returning Sink voters
4) Crist had 6.9% of returning Scott voters
5) Crist had 54% of new voters

In the Base Case scenario, Crist had a 52.0% share and won by 224,000 votes. The Sensitivity analysis shows Crist’s total vote share and margins over a range of 18 scenarios. He won 17.

1988-2008 Presidential Elections
A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. The Democrats led the recorded vote by 48-46%, but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.

The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 37% were returning Gore voters. But this is impossible since Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore 5 million phantom Bush voters were required in order to match the recorded vote. Recall that Gore won the popular recorded vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). The exit pollsters switched 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.

The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bush 2004 voters and just 49 million (37%) were returning Kerry voters. In other words, in order to match the 2008 recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Bush 2004 voters than returning Kerry voters. But Bush won the bogus 2004 recorded vote by just 3 million! Kerry won the True Vote by close to 10 million. He won the unadjusted state and national exit polls by 6 million. Therefore Obama won the True Vote in 2008 by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.

The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:

http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 

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